Bundesliga
· Regular Season - 28
April 05, 2026 17:30
A. Ilic
(ast. D. Kohn)
52'
25'
M. Pereira Lage
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Union Berlin a 40% win probability (draw 31%, FC St. Pauli 28%). The final result was Union Berlin 1–1 FC St. Pauli. In 1 previous meetings, Union Berlin have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for FC St. Pauli.
Match statistics
12
Total shots
5
8
Shots on target
2
1.95
Actual xG
0.33
1
Saves
8
55%
Possession
45%
7
Corners
2
10
Tackles
22
0
🟨 Yellow cards
2
0
🟥 Red cards
1
Match Events
25'
M. Pereira Lage⚽
⚽A. Ilic
· ast. D. Kohn
52'
60'
A. Hountondji
/
M. Kaars
Jeong Woo-Yeong
/ A. Kral
73'
73'
C. Metcalfe
/
J. Fujita
D. Kohn
/ T. Rothe
80'
O. Burke
/ I. Ansah
80'
85'
Jackson Irvine
89'
A. Ceesay
/
M. Rasmussen
90'+3
Jackson Irvine
90'+3
Jackson Irvine
Pre-match prediction
40.12%
Union
31.35%
X ←
28.53%
FC
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
31.35%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.01
1.95
+0.94
0.97
0.33
-0.64
Union Berlin dominated by xG (1.95 vs 0.33).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
F. Ronnow
G
4
Diogo Leite
D
Diogo Leite
D
14
L. Querfeld
D
L. Querfeld
D
5
Danilho Doekhi
D
Danilho Doekhi
D
39
Derrick Köhn
1 👟
80'
M
Derrick Köhn
1 👟
80'
M
8
Rani Khedira
M
Rani Khedira
M
13
András Schäfer
M
András Schäfer
M
19
J. Haberer
M
23
Andrej Ilić
1 ⚽
F
Andrej Ilić
1 ⚽
F
11
Woo-Yeong Jeong
73'
F
Woo-Yeong Jeong
73'
F
7
Oliver Burke
80'
F
Oliver Burke
80'
F
Bench
33
Alex Král
17'
M
Alex Král
17'
M
6
Aljoscha Kemlein
M
Aljoscha Kemlein
M
28
Christopher Trimmel
D
Christopher Trimmel
D
10
Ilyas Ansah
10'
F
Ilyas Ansah
10'
F
18
Josip Juranović
D
Josip Juranović
D
9
Livan Burcu
F
Livan Burcu
F
15
Tom Alexander Rothe
10'
D
Tom Alexander Rothe
10'
D
22
G
3
K. Mets
D
5
D
25
D
28
Mathias Pereira Lage
1 ⚽
M
7
Jackson Irvine
M
20
M. Rasmussen
89'
M
11
M
16
J. Fujita
73'
F
10
D. Sinani
F
D. Sinani
F
19
M. Kaars
60'
F
Bench
9
A. Ceesay
8'
F
27
A. Hountondji
30'
F
24
C. Metcalfe
17'
M
23
L. Oppie
D
21
L. Ritzka
D
Best on the pitch
G · FC
9.20
· 31 pass
Mathias Pereira Lage
M · FC
8.30
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 23 pass
Andrej Ilić
F · Union
8.30
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 18 pass
Derrick Köhn
M · Union
8.00
1 👟
2 shots
· 32 pass
Oliver Burke
F · Union
7.30
2 shots
· 15 pass
Diogo Leite
D · Union
7.20
· 70 pass
Union Berlin — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Ronnow | G | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 40 | 33% | — | — | — |
| Diogo Leite | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 70 | 57% | 1 | — | — |
| L. Querfeld | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 75 | 58% | 2 | — | — |
| Danilho Doekhi | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 53 | 37% | — | — | — |
| Derrick Köhn | M | 80 | 8.00 | — | 1 | 2 | 32 | 20% | 2 | — | — |
| Rani Khedira | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 19 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| András Schäfer | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 37 | 28% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Haberer | M | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 46 | 36% | — | — | — |
| Andrej Ilić | F | 90 | 8.30 | 1 | — | 2 | 18 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Woo-Yeong Jeong | F | 73 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 21 | 16% | 2 | — | — |
| Oliver Burke | F | 80 | 7.30 | — | — | 2 | 15 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
| Alex Král | M | 17 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 10 | 6% | — | — | — |
| Ilyas Ansah | F | 10 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 5 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Tom Alexander Rothe | D | 10 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 2% | — | — | — |
FC St. Pauli — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 9.20 | — | — | — | 31 | 12% | — | — | — | |
| K. Mets | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 48 | 37% | 2 | — | — |
| D | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 50 | 42% | — | — | — | |
| D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 31 | 23% | 2 | — | — | |
| Mathias Pereira Lage | M | 90 | 8.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 23 | 12% | 2 | — | — |
| Jackson Irvine | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 42 | 27% | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| M. Rasmussen | M | 89 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 42 | 32% | 1 | — | — |
| M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 36 | 19% | 1 | — | — | |
| J. Fujita | F | 73 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 24 | 18% | 5 | — | — |
| D. Sinani | F | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 33 | 24% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Kaars | F | 60 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 10 | 9% | 3 | — | — |
| A. Ceesay | F | 8 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — |
| A. Hountondji | F | 30 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
| C. Metcalfe | M | 17 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 5 | 3% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Union Berlin vs FC St. Pauli?
The final score was Union Berlin 1–1 FC St. Pauli.
What did the model predict before Union Berlin vs FC St. Pauli?
The model assigned 40% probability to a Union Berlin win, 31% to a draw, and 28% to an FC St. Pauli win.