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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 5 October 10, 2026 15:30 An der Alten Försterei, Berlin
Union Berlin
#17 · 6 pts
1 – 0
Final score
SV Elversberg
#8 · 10 pts
Livan Burcu 81'
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave SV Elversberg a 40% win probability (draw 27%, Union Berlin 31%). The final result was Union Berlin 1–0 SV Elversberg.

Match statistics
18
Total shots
7
7
Shots on target
2
1.59
Actual xG
0.28
2
Saves
5
43%
Possession
57%
7
Corners
3
15
Tackles
13
2
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
Janik Haberer
7'
Tim Skarke
21'
↕ Kastriot Imeri / Livan Burcu
58'
59'
Maurice Krattenmacher / Tom Zimmerschied ↕
70'
Cole Campbell / Noel Futkeu ↕
71'
Nicholas Mickelson / Lasse Günther ↕
71'
David Mokwa / Noah Darvich ↕
↕ Michel Aebischer / Christopher Trimmel
77'
↕ Woo-Yeong Jeong / M. Gray
78'
↕ Tim Skarke / Oliver Burke
78'
⚽Livan Burcu
81'
86'
Frederik Schmahl / Luca Sirch ↕
90'+2
Maurice Krattenmacher
↕ András Schäfer / Aljoscha Kemlein
90'+2
Pre-match prediction
31.61%
Union ←
27.92%
X
40.48%
SV
we assigned to the actual result (Union Berlin) 31.61% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Union
1.52
1.59
+0.07
SV
3.23
0.28
-2.95
Union Berlin dominated by xG (1.59 vs 0.28). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Bayern München Bayern München 7 17
2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 7 17
3 SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 7 13
4 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 7 13
5 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 7 12
6 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 7 12
7 FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 7 10
8 SV Elversberg SV Elversberg 7 10
9 FC Augsburg FC Augsburg 7 9
10 1899 Hoffenheim 1899 Hoffenheim 7 9
11 Hamburger SV Hamburger SV 7 9
12 1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln 7 8
13 SC Paderborn 07 SC Paderborn 07 7 8
14 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt 7 8
15 VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart 7 6
16 FC Schalke 04 FC Schalke 04 7 6
17 Union Berlin Union Berlin 7 6
18 Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Mönchengladbach 7 3
Lineups
Union Berlin Union Berlin 4-1-4-1
1 F. Rønnow F. Rønnow G 7.18
15 T. Rothe T. Rothe D 6.75
2 F. Uduokhai F. Uduokhai D 7.56
4 Z. Van Den Bosch Z. Van Den Bosch D 7.69
19 J. Haberer J. Haberer D 6.18
8 R. Khedira R. Khedira M 6.61
20 M. Aebischer M. Aebischer 77' M 6.66
30 K. Imeri K. Imeri 58' M 7.20
11 Jeong Woo-Yeong Jeong Woo-Yeong 78' M 7.10
13 A. Schäfer A. Schäfer 89' M 6.84
21 T. Skarke T. Skarke 78' F 6.09
Bench
6 A. Kemlein A. Kemlein 1' M 0.00
28 C. Trimmel C. Trimmel 13' D 6.96
17 D. Köhn D. Köhn D 0.00
9 Livan Burcu Livan Burcu 1 ⚽ 32' F 7.91
14 L. Querfeld L. Querfeld D 0.00
27 M. Ljubičić M. Ljubičić F 0.00
31 M. Raab M. Raab G 0.00
7 O. Burke O. Burke 12' F 6.66
SV Elversberg SV Elversberg 4-2-3-1
20 N. Kristof N. Kristof G 7.84
21 L. Günther L. Günther 71' D 6.88
31 M. Rohr M. Rohr D 7.20
19 L. Pinckert L. Pinckert D 7.14
26 L. Sirch L. Sirch 86' D 6.97
8 Ł. Poręba Ł. Poręba M 6.01
43 F. Keidel F. Keidel M 6.65
29 T. Zimmerschied T. Zimmerschied 59' M 6.49
10 Noah Darvich Noah Darvich 71' M 6.25
25 L. Petkov L. Petkov M 6.59
9 N. Futkeu N. Futkeu 70' F 6.78
Bench
6 A. Condé A. Condé M 0.00
42 D. Mokwa D. Mokwa 19' F 6.30
3 F. Le Joncour F. Le Joncour D 0.00
17 F. Schmahl F. Schmahl 4' M 6.42
24 L. Schnellbacher L. Schnellbacher M 0.00
7 M. Krattenmacher M. Krattenmacher 31' M 6.31
2 N. Mickelson N. Mickelson 19' D 6.39
28 T. Boss T. Boss G 0.00
39 William Cole Campbell William Cole Campbell 20' F 6.54
Best on the pitch
Livan Burcu
Livan Burcu
F · Union
7.91
1 ⚽
3 shots · 9 pass
N. Kristof
N. Kristof
G · SV
7.84
· 44 pass
Z. Van Den Bosch
Z. Van Den Bosch
D · Union
7.69
1 shots · 36 pass
F. Uduokhai
F. Uduokhai
D · Union
7.56
2 shots · 43 pass
M. Rohr
M. Rohr
D · SV
7.20
1 shots · 78 pass
K. Imeri
K. Imeri
M · Union
7.20
1 shots · 20 pass
Union Berlin Union Berlin — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
F. Rønnow G 90 7.18 — — 0 34 29% 0 — —
T. Rothe D 90 6.75 — — 2 26 17% 3 — —
F. Uduokhai D 90 7.56 — — 2 43 33% 1 — —
Z. Van Den Bosch D 90 7.69 — — 1 36 29% 4 — —
J. Haberer D 90 6.18 — — 1 34 23% 1 1 —
R. Khedira M 90 6.61 — — 1 18 14% 2 — —
M. Aebischer M 77 6.66 — — 0 18 17% 1 — —
K. Imeri M 58 7.20 — — 1 20 14% 1 — —
Jeong Woo-Yeong M 78 7.10 — — 2 22 20% 0 — —
A. Schäfer M 89 6.84 — — 3 32 26% 2 — —
T. Skarke F 78 6.09 — — 2 18 15% 0 1 —
A. Kemlein M 1 0.00 — — 0 0 0% 0 — —
C. Trimmel D 13 6.96 — — 0 5 3% 0 — —
Livan Burcu F 32 7.91 1 — 3 9 6% 0 — —
O. Burke F 12 6.66 — — 0 8 6% 0 — —
SV Elversberg SV Elversberg — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
N. Kristof G 90 7.84 — — 0 44 35% 0 — —
L. Günther D 71 6.88 — — 1 23 18% 3 — —
M. Rohr D 90 7.20 — — 1 78 69% 1 — —
L. Pinckert D 90 7.14 — — 1 80 63% 1 — —
L. Sirch D 86 6.97 — — 0 49 37% 2 — —
Ł. Poręba M 90 6.01 — — 0 54 44% 1 — —
F. Keidel M 90 6.65 — — 0 40 35% 2 — —
T. Zimmerschied M 59 6.49 — — 0 14 12% 0 — —
Noah Darvich M 71 6.25 — — 1 7 7% 0 — —
L. Petkov M 90 6.59 — — 0 29 20% 1 — —
N. Futkeu F 70 6.78 — — 1 7 6% 1 — —
D. Mokwa F 19 6.30 — — 0 4 3% 0 — —
F. Schmahl M 4 6.42 — — 0 4 4% 0 — —
M. Krattenmacher M 31 6.31 — — 1 3 2% 1 1 —
N. Mickelson D 19 6.39 — — 0 9 9% 0 — —
William Cole Campbell F 20 6.54 — — 1 5 4% 0 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg?
The final score was Union Berlin 1–0 SV Elversberg.
What did the model predict before Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg?
The model assigned 31% probability to a Union Berlin win, 27% to a draw, and 40% to an SV Elversberg win.