Union Santa Fe 1–2 Independiente — pre-match prediction — Liga Profesional — September 19, 2026

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Liga Profesional · Clausura - 10 September 19, 2026 21:45

Union Santa Fe

#8 · 21 pts

1 – 2

Final score

Independiente

#5 · 24 pts

M. Estigarribia (ast. J. Mosqueira) 49'

52' (ast. L. Godoy) S. Montiel

57' (ast. M. Abaldo) M. Meza

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Union Santa Fe a 50% win probability (draw 23%, Independiente 26%). The final result was Union Santa Fe 1–2 Independiente. In 2 previous meetings, Union Santa Fe have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 1 wins for Independiente.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

1.33

Actual xG

0.34

Saves

56%

Possession

44%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

L. Menossi

15'

21'

I. Morales / C. Avila ↕

37'

L. Godoy

45'+2

M. Abaldo / J. Palais ↕

45'+5

46'

R. Martino / F. Zabala ↕

⚽M. Estigarribia · ast. J. Mosqueira

49'

52'

ast. L. Godoy · S. Montiel⚽

57'

ast. M. Abaldo · M. Meza⚽

↕ B. Cuello / M. Luna Diale

59'

↕ J. Mosqueira / I. Malcorra

59'

C. Tarragona

65'

↕ M. Estigarribia / E. Ramirez

68'

70'

I. Marcone

71'

J. Arrayago

75'

M. Abaldo

79'

D. Martinez / M. Perez Curci ↕

↕ J. Palacios / M. Aguirre

80'

L. Millan / S. Montiel ↕

↕ L. Ayala / B. Pitton

80'

Pre-match prediction

50.08%

Union

23.52%

26.4%

Independiente ←

we assigned to the actual result (Independiente) 26.4% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Union

1.80

1.33

-0.47

Independiente

1.18

0.34

-0.84

Union Santa Fe dominated by xG (1.33 vs 0.34). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Estudiantes L.P.	16	31
2	Boca Juniors	16	30
3	Velez Sarsfield	16	28
4	Talleres Cordoba	16	26
5	Independiente	16	24
6	Lanus	16	24
7	San Lorenzo	16	22
8	Union Santa Fe	16	21
9	Instituto Cordoba	16	21
10	Defensa Y Justicia	16	19
11	Gimnasia M.	16	19
12	Platense	16	16
13	Central Cordoba de Santiago	16	16
14	Newells Old Boys	16	15
15	Deportivo Riestra	16	11

Lineups

Union Santa Fe 4-4-2

Matías Mansilla G 6.00

Lucas Ayala 80' D 6.90

Juan Pablo Ludueña D 6.50

Matías Rocha D 6.50

Juan Pintado D 6.70

Brahian Cuello 59' M 7.20

Lucas Menossi M 7.30

Joaquin Mosqueira 1 👟 59' M 6.30

J. Palacios 80' M 6.90

C. Tarragona F 6.90

Marcelo Estigarribia 1 ⚽ 68' F 7.30

Bench

Bruno Pittón 16' D 6.70

Emilio Giaccone M

Eric Ramírez 28' F 6.30

Ignacio Malcorra 37' M 6.60

Lucas Meuli G

Mateo Aimar D

Mateo Peresutti M

Mauro Luna 37' M 6.90

Misael Aguirre 16' F 6.30

Tobías Rubio D

Tomás Fagioli D

Valentín Cerrudo F

Independiente 4-3-3

Rodrigo Rey G 7.50

Facundo Zabala 45' D 6.90

Juan Miguel Arrayago D 7.20

Juan Fedorco D 6.30

Leonardo Godoy 1 👟 D 6.90

Maxi Meza 1 ⚽ M 7.90

Iván Marcone M 6.20

Mateo Perez Curci 79' M 6.60

Josias Palais 47' F 6.20

Chimy Ávila 21' F 6.50

S. Montiel 1 ⚽ 80' F 8.00

Bench

David Martínez 17' M 6.60

Felipe Tempone F

Franco Calderón D

Iván Morales 75' F 6.30

Lautaro Millán 16' M 6.70

Luciano Cabral M

Matías Abaldo 1 👟 49' F 6.30

Ramiro Martino 51' D 6.20

Santiago Mele G

S. Arias D

Sebastián Valdez D

Tomás Parmo M

Best on the pitch

S. Montiel

F · Independiente

8.00

1 ⚽

2 shots · 23 pass

Maxi Meza

M · Independiente

7.90

1 ⚽

1 shots · 26 pass

Rodrigo Rey

G · Independiente

7.50

· 31 pass

Lucas Menossi

M · Union

7.30

2 shots · 49 pass

Marcelo Estigarribia

F · Union

7.30

1 ⚽

1 shots · 15 pass

Juan Miguel Arrayago

D · Independiente

7.20

· 30 pass

Union Santa Fe — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Matías Mansilla	G	96	6.00	—	—	—	18	13%	—	—	—
Lucas Ayala	D	80	6.90	—	—	—	33	28%	3	—	—
Juan Pablo Ludueña	D	96	6.50	—	—	—	55	42%	2	—	—
Matías Rocha	D	96	6.50	—	—	—	39	28%	—	—	—
Juan Pintado	D	96	6.70	—	—	—	33	28%	2	—	—
Brahian Cuello	M	59	7.20	—	—	1	18	8%	1	—	—
Lucas Menossi	M	96	7.30	—	—	2	49	42%	2	1	—
Joaquin Mosqueira	M	59	6.30	—	1	1	30	23%	1	—	—
J. Palacios	M	80	6.90	—	—	3	18	16%	2	—	—
C. Tarragona	F	96	6.90	—	—	5	22	18%	2	1	—
Marcelo Estigarribia	F	68	7.30	1	—	1	15	7%	—	—	—
Bruno Pittón	D	16	6.70	—	—	—	7	5%	—	—	—
Eric Ramírez	F	28	6.30	—	—	—	2	1%	—	—	—
Ignacio Malcorra	M	37	6.60	—	—	1	17	11%	—	—	—
Mauro Luna	M	37	6.90	—	—	—	9	6%	—	—	—
Misael Aguirre	F	16	6.30	—	—	—	1	1%	—	—	—

Independiente — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Rodrigo Rey	G	96	7.50	—	—	—	31	17%	—	—	—
Facundo Zabala	D	45	6.90	—	—	—	15	10%	—	—	—
Juan Miguel Arrayago	D	96	7.20	—	—	—	30	28%	1	1	—
Juan Fedorco	D	96	6.30	—	—	—	44	36%	1	—	—
Leonardo Godoy	D	96	6.90	—	1	1	30	20%	—	1	—
Maxi Meza	M	96	7.90	1	—	1	26	18%	—	—	—
Iván Marcone	M	96	6.20	—	—	—	55	46%	1	1	—
Mateo Perez Curci	M	79	6.60	—	—	—	18	17%	—	—	—
Josias Palais	F	47	6.20	—	—	—	5	4%	—	—	—
Chimy Ávila	F	21	6.50	—	—	—	7	4%	—	—	—
S. Montiel	F	80	8.00	1	—	2	23	15%	1	—	—
David Martínez	M	17	6.60	—	—	—	2	2%	—	—	—
Iván Morales	F	75	6.30	—	—	1	13	12%	—	—	—
Lautaro Millán	M	16	6.70	—	—	1	—	—	—	—	—
Matías Abaldo	F	49	6.30	—	1	—	7	4%	1	1	—
Ramiro Martino	D	51	6.20	—	—	—	6	2%	—	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Union Santa Fe vs Independiente?

The final score was Union Santa Fe 1–2 Independiente.

What did the model predict before Union Santa Fe vs Independiente?

The model assigned 50% probability to a Union Santa Fe win, 23% to a draw, and 26% to an Independiente win.