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Universitario - Atletico Grau

Liga 1 May 16, 2026 03:00
Universitario
#4 · 25 pts
vs
Atletico Grau
#18 · 10 pts
Weather at kick-off ⛅ Partly cloudy 19.8°C 💨 9 km/h · Lima
⚡ Pre-match analysis
65.27%
Win
Universitario
20.17%
Draw
14.56%
Win
Atletico Grau
1.94
Expected xG
0.62
Model prediction
Universitario
65.27%
Probability
80.0%
1X2 accuracy · 15 predictions (3 months)

The ForzaPitch prediction gives Universitario a 65% win probability, against 20% for a draw and 14% for Atletico Grau. Expected goals are 1.9 for Universitario and 0.6 for Atletico Grau (total 2.6), with a 72% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 15.0% probability.

Score Matrix
↕ Universitario Atletico Grau →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 7.8% 4.8% 1.5% 0.3% — —
1 15.0% 9.3% 2.9% 0.6% 0.1% —
2 14.6% 9.0% 2.8% 0.6% 0.1% —
3 9.4% 5.8% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% —
4 4.6% 2.8% 0.9% 0.2% — —
5 1.8% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% — —
Recent form
Universitario Universitario
D Sport Boys 0–0
W Juan Pablo II College 1–4
L Alianza Atletico 1–2
W Deportivo Garcilaso 4–1
L FBC Melgar 2–1
Clean sheet in casa (120gg) 37%
Atletico Grau Atletico Grau
L Cienciano 1–2
L ADT 1–0
L Alianza Lima 0–1
W Sporting Cristal 4–1
L Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2–0
Clean sheet in trasferta (120gg) 20%
Playing profile
Universitario Universitario
Attack
38
Defence
78
Form
61
Atletico Grau Atletico Grau
Attack
30
Defence
62
Form
34
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
League Table
# Team G Pts
1 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 14 33
2 Club Deportivo Los Chankas Club Deportivo Los Chankas 14 30
3 Cienciano Cienciano 14 29
4 Universitario Universitario 14 25
5 FBC Melgar FBC Melgar 14 21
6 Cusco Cusco 14 21
7 Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos 14 20
8 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso 14 19
9 Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico 14 17
10 ADT ADT 14 17
11 UCV Moquegua UCV Moquegua 14 17
12 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal 14 16
13 UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca 14 16
14 Sport Huancayo Sport Huancayo 14 15
15 Juan Pablo II College Juan Pablo II College 14 15
16 Sport Boys Sport Boys 14 13
17 FC Cajamarca FC Cajamarca 14 12
18 Atletico Grau Atletico Grau 14 10
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Universitario vs Atletico Grau?
The model gives Universitario a 65% win probability, 20% for a draw, and 14% for an Atletico Grau win.
How many goals are expected in Universitario vs Atletico Grau?
Expected goals: Universitario 1.9, Atletico Grau 0.6 (total 2.6). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 72%.
What is the most likely score in Universitario vs Atletico Grau?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 15.0%.