Copa Libertadores
· Group Stage - 3
April 30, 2026 04:00
C. Fara
(ast. J. Concha)
40'
A. Valera
46'
L. Alzugaray
81'
J. Carabali
(ast. H. Fertoli)
90'+1
(pen.)
14'
M. Gomez
71'
M. Silvera
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Universitario a 36% win probability (draw 27%, Club Nacional 35%). The final result was Universitario 4–2 Club Nacional. In 1 previous meetings, Universitario have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Club Nacional.
Match statistics
13
Total shots
9
9
Shots on target
6
2.05
Actual xG
1.41
4
Saves
5
56%
Possession
44%
6
Corners
5
24
Tackles
10
4
🟨 Yellow cards
4
0
🟥 Red cards
1
Match Events
14'
(pen.)
M. Gomez⚽
C. Fara
18'
21'
L. Rodriguez
35'
L. Rodriguez
35'
L. Rodriguez
⚽C. Fara
· ast. J. Concha
40'
43'
M. Gomez
⚽A. Valera
46'
J. Murrugarra
62'
63'
M. Silvera
/
B. Barcia
63'
J. De Los Santos
/
N. Lodeiro
J. Murrugarra
/ J. Castillo
66'
E. Flores
/ L. Alzugaray
69'
71'
M. Silvera⚽
75'
L. Mejia
A. Valera
/ J. Rivera
80'
M. Perez Guedes
/ H. Fertoli
80'
⚽L. Alzugaray
81'
L. Alzugaray
82'
83'
R. Martinez
/
T. Veron
83'
E. Ancheta
/
N. Rodriguez
86'
P. Nunez
/
L. Boggio
J. Castillo
88'
⚽J. Carabali
· ast. H. Fertoli
90'+1
Pre-match prediction
36.78%
Universitario ←
27.45%
X
35.77%
Club
we assigned to the actual result (Universitario)
36.78%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.23
2.05
+0.82
1.26
1.41
+0.15
Universitario dominated by xG (2.05 vs 1.41).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
25
G
2
Caín Fara
1 ⚽
D
Caín Fara
1 ⚽
D
3
W. Riveros
D
W. Riveros
D
4
Anderson Santamaría
D
Anderson Santamaría
D
27
J. Carabalí
1 ⚽
M
J. Carabalí
1 ⚽
M
17
J. Concha
1 👟
M
J. Concha
1 👟
M
23
Jorge Murrugarra
66'
M
Jorge Murrugarra
66'
M
16
Martín Pérez Guedes
80'
M
Martín Pérez Guedes
80'
M
24
M
20
A. Valera
1 ⚽
80'
F
A. Valera
1 ⚽
80'
F
19
Edison Flores
69'
F
Edison Flores
69'
F
Bench
77
Bryan Reyna
F
Bryan Reyna
F
33
César Inga
D
César Inga
D
8
Héctor Fértoli
1 👟
15'
M
Héctor Fértoli
1 👟
15'
M
6
Jesús Castillo
29'
M
Jesús Castillo
29'
M
11
José Rivera
15'
F
José Rivera
15'
F
30
Lisandro Alzugaray
1 ⚽
26'
F
Lisandro Alzugaray
1 ⚽
26'
F
99
Miguel Silveira
M
Miguel Silveira
M
90
Sekou Gassama
F
Sekou Gassama
F
1
Luis Mejía
G
2
Agustín Rogel
D
4
Sebastián Coates
D
Sebastián Coates
D
77
Nicolás Rodríguez
83'
D
Nicolás Rodríguez
83'
D
21
M
23
Lucas Rodríguez
35'
M
6
Luciano Boggio
86'
M
30
Baltasar Barcia
63'
M
14
Nicolás Lodeiro
63'
F
27
Tomas Veron Lupi
83'
F
9
M. Gómez
1 ⚽
F
M. Gómez
1 ⚽
F
Bench
13
Emiliano Ancheta
12'
D
34
F. Bais
M
25
Ignacio Suárez
G
19
Juan De los Santos
F
Juan De los Santos
F
39
Luciano Gonzalez
M
Luciano Gonzalez
M
8
Mauricio Vera
M
11
Maximiliano Silvera
1 ⚽
32'
F
15
Paolo Calione
D
18
Pável Núñez
9'
F
32
Tomás Viera
D
Tomás Viera
D
Best on the pitch
J. Carabalí
M · Universitario
7.90
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 36 pass
Caín Fara
D · Universitario
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 39 pass
Jorge Murrugarra
M · Universitario
7.30
· 31 pass
Luis Mejía
G · Club
7.30
· 21 pass
Nicolás Lodeiro
F · Club
7.30
1 shots
· 31 pass
Maximiliano Silvera
F · Club
7.20
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 12 pass
Universitario — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 95 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 6 | 3% | — | — | — | |
| Caín Fara | D | 95 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 39 | 27% | 2 | 1 | — |
| W. Riveros | D | 95 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 29 | 22% | 1 | — | — |
| Anderson Santamaría | D | 95 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 31 | 26% | 5 | — | — |
| J. Carabalí | M | 95 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 3 | 36 | 30% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Concha | M | 95 | 6.70 | — | 1 | 1 | 49 | 36% | 1 | — | — |
| Jorge Murrugarra | M | 66 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 31 | 28% | 5 | 1 | — |
| Martín Pérez Guedes | M | 80 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 31 | 27% | 2 | — | — |
| M | 95 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 36 | 27% | 5 | — | — | |
| A. Valera | F | 80 | 6.90 | 1 | — | 2 | 22 | 15% | — | — | — |
| Edison Flores | F | 69 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 20 | 18% | — | — | — |
| Héctor Fértoli | M | 15 | 6.90 | — | 1 | — | 6 | 6% | — | — | — |
| Jesús Castillo | M | 29 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 20 | 16% | 1 | 1 | — |
| José Rivera | F | 15 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1% | 1 | — | — |
| Lisandro Alzugaray | F | 26 | 6.90 | 1 | — | 2 | 14 | 11% | — | 1 | — |
Club Nacional — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Mejía | G | 95 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 21 | 11% | — | 1 | — |
| Agustín Rogel | D | 95 | 5.90 | — | — | 1 | 14 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| Sebastián Coates | D | 95 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 25 | 20% | 1 | — | — |
| Nicolás Rodríguez | D | 83 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 29 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| M | 95 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 36 | 28% | — | — | — | |
| Lucas Rodríguez | M | 35 | 5.50 | — | — | — | 14 | 13% | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Luciano Boggio | M | 86 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 37 | 32% | — | — | — |
| Baltasar Barcia | M | 63 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 6 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
| Nicolás Lodeiro | F | 63 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 31 | 26% | 2 | — | — |
| Tomas Veron Lupi | F | 83 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 26 | 24% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Gómez | F | 95 | 6.60 | 1 | — | 4 | 19 | 11% | — | 1 | — |
| Emiliano Ancheta | D | 12 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 6 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
| Maximiliano Silvera | F | 32 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 12 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
| Pável Núñez | F | 9 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 3 | 1% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Universitario vs Club Nacional?
The final score was Universitario 4–2 Club Nacional.
What did the model predict before Universitario vs Club Nacional?
The model assigned 36% probability to a Universitario win, 27% to a draw, and 35% to an Club Nacional win.