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Universitario - Sporting Cristal

Liga 1 August 08, 2026 03:30 Estadio Monumental, Lima
Universitario
#2 · 6 pts
vs
Sporting Cristal
#5 · 6 pts
Weather at kick-off ⛅ Partly cloudy 18.4°C 💨 7 km/h · Lima
⚡ Pre-match analysis
44.42%
Win
Universitario
30.48%
Draw
25.11%
Win
Sporting Cristal
1.07
Expected xG
0.73

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–0 (18.28%)
1X2 Result ✓ 70.4% hit rate (27 picks)
1 44%
X 30%
2 25%
Double Chance
1X 75%
X2 56%
12 70%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 66%
Over 2.5 48%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Universitario a 44% win probability, against 30% for a draw and 25% for Sporting Cristal. Expected goals are 1.1 for Universitario and 0.7 for Sporting Cristal (total 1.8), with a 65% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 18.28% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Universitario have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Sporting Cristal.

Season Stats

Universitario
7W 3D 5L
Sporting Cristal
6W 2D 7L
Averages per game
1.3
Goals
1.7
1.0
Conceded
1.7
3.8
Shots OT
4.8
5.2
Corners
5.8
52%
Poss.
58%
Percentages
67%
O 1.5
87%
53%
O 2.5
73%
53%
BTTS
73%
33%
Clean Sht
20%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in Liga 1. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
25%
O 3.5
65%
BTTS
Universitario
8W 0D 2L · at home
Sporting Cristal
1W 2D 7L · away
1.7
gls/g
1.2
0.7
Conceded
2.0
80%
Win %
10%
80%
Win or Draw
30%
70%
O 1.5
90%
50%
O 2.5
60%
10%
O 3.5
40%
50%
BTTS
80%
40%
Clean Sht
10%
10%
Failed to Score
10%
last 10
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Universitario Sporting Cristal →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 16.5% 12.1% 4.4% 1.1% 0.2% —
1 17.6% 12.9% 4.7% 1.2% 0.2% —
2 9.4% 6.9% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% —
3 3.4% 2.5% 0.9% 0.2% — —
4 0.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% — —
5 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% — — —

Recent form

Universitario Universitario
L Cienciano 2–0
W Cusco 2–1
W ADT 1–2
W Sport Huancayo 2–1
D UCV Moquegua 0–0
Home clean sheet (120 days) 24%
Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal
W Juan Pablo II College 2–0
L FBC Melgar 2–1
W Deportivo Garcilaso 1–0
L Cienciano 3–2
W ADT 2–1
Away clean sheet (120 days) 10%

Playing profile

Universitario Universitario
Attack
34
Defence
66
Form
59
Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal
Attack
48
Defence
62
Form
50
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

0
Universitario
1
Draw
0
Sporting Cristal
21 Feb 2026 Liga 1 2–2

Primera Division: Clausura

# Team G Pts
1 FBC Melgar FBC Melgar 2 6
2 Universitario Universitario 2 6
3 Juan Pablo II College Juan Pablo II College 2 4
4 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 2 4
5 Cusco Cusco 2 3
6 Sport Huancayo Sport Huancayo 2 3
7 Sport Boys Sport Boys 2 3
8 Atletico Grau Atletico Grau 2 3
9 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal 2 3
10 Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico 2 3
11 Club Deportivo Los Chankas Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2 3
12 Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos 2 2
13 UCV Moquegua UCV Moquegua 2 2
14 FC Cajamarca FC Cajamarca 1 1
15 UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca 2 1
16 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso 1 0
17 ADT ADT 2 0
18 Cienciano Cienciano 2 0

What's at stake · Primera Division: Clausura

Top 2 advance to the next round

Universitario Sporting Cristal
Current #2 #1
→ Universitario #1 #9
→ Draw #1 #5
→ Sporting Cristal #2 #3

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Universitario vs Sporting Cristal?
The model gives Universitario a 44% win probability, 30% for a draw, and 25% for an Sporting Cristal win.
How many goals are expected in Universitario vs Sporting Cristal?
Expected goals: Universitario 1.1, Sporting Cristal 0.7 (total 1.8). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 65%.
What is the most likely score in Universitario vs Sporting Cristal?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 18.28%.