C. Burgess
11'
(og)
A. Freeman
43'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave USA a 44% win probability (draw 26%, Australia 29%). The final result was USA 2–0 Australia.
Match statistics
4
Total shots
5
2
Shots on target
2
1.30
Actual xG
0.44
2
Saves
1
62%
Possession
38%
7
Corners
4
21
Tackles
12
3
🟨 Yellow cards
4
Match Events
⚽C. Burgess
(og)
11'
16'
J. Bos
32'
A. Circati
⚽A. Freeman
43'
46'
J. Geria
/
C. Burgess
46'
C. Metcalfe
/
N. Velupillay
46'
N. Irankunda
/
M. Toure
A. Robinson
56'
61'
C. Volpato
/
M. Leckie
R. Pepi
/ S. Berhalter
74'
78'
J. Irvine
/
P. Okon-Engstler
S. Dest
/ J. Scally
80'
A. Robinson
/ A. Trusty
80'
88'
H. Souttar
F. Balogun
89'
89'
J. Italiano
C. Richards
90'+3
F. Balogun
/ H. Wright
90'+6
W. McKennie
/ G. Reyna
90'+6
Pre-match prediction
44.07%
USA ←
26.92%
X
29.0%
Australia
we assigned to the actual result (USA)
44.07%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.92
1.30
-0.62
1.46
0.44
-1.02
USA dominated by xG (1.30 vs 0.44).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
24
Matthew Freese
G
Matthew Freese
G
13
T. Ream
D
T. Ream
D
3
C. Richards
D
C. Richards
D
16
Alexander Freeman
1 ⚽
D
Alexander Freeman
1 ⚽
D
5
Antonee Robinson
80'
M
Antonee Robinson
80'
M
17
M. Tillman
M
M. Tillman
M
4
Tyler Adams
M
Tyler Adams
M
8
W. McKennie
89'
M
W. McKennie
89'
M
2
Sergiño Dest
80'
M
Sergiño Dest
80'
M
9
R. Pepi
74'
F
R. Pepi
74'
F
20
F. Balogun
89'
F
F. Balogun
89'
F
Bench
6
Auston Trusty
10'
D
Auston Trusty
10'
D
26
A. Zendejas
F
A. Zendejas
F
11
B. Aaronson
M
B. Aaronson
M
25
Chris Brady
G
Chris Brady
G
15
C. Roldan
M
C. Roldan
M
7
Giovanni Reyna
1'
M
Giovanni Reyna
1'
M
19
Haji Wright
1'
F
Haji Wright
1'
F
23
J. Scally
10'
D
J. Scally
10'
D
18
M. Arfsten
M
M. Arfsten
M
12
Miles Robinson
D
Miles Robinson
D
22
M. McKenzie
D
M. McKenzie
D
1
M. Turner
G
M. Turner
G
14
Sebastian Berhalter
16'
M
Sebastian Berhalter
16'
M
21
T. Weah
F
T. Weah
F
18
Patrick Beach
G
Patrick Beach
G
5
J. Bos
D
J. Bos
D
21
Cameron Burgess
1 ⚽
45'
D
Cameron Burgess
1 ⚽
45'
D
19
Harry Souttar
D
Harry Souttar
D
3
Alessandro Circati
D
Alessandro Circati
D
4
Jacob Italiano
D
Jacob Italiano
D
23
Nishan Velupillay
45'
M
Nishan Velupillay
45'
M
24
Paul Okon-Engstler
78'
M
Paul Okon-Engstler
78'
M
13
Aiden O'Neill
M
Aiden O'Neill
M
7
Mathew Leckie
61'
M
Mathew Leckie
61'
M
9
M. Touré
45'
F
M. Touré
45'
F
Bench
10
A. Hrustić
M
A. Hrustić
M
11
A. Mabil
M
A. Mabil
M
16
Aziz Behich
D
Aziz Behich
D
14
C. Devlin
M
C. Devlin
M
8
Connor Metcalfe
45'
M
Connor Metcalfe
45'
M
20
C. Volpato
29'
M
C. Volpato
29'
M
22
Jackson Irvine
12'
M
Jackson Irvine
12'
M
6
Jason Geria
45'
D
Jason Geria
45'
D
15
Kai Trewin
D
Kai Trewin
D
25
Lucas Herrington
D
Lucas Herrington
D
2
Miloš Degenek
D
Miloš Degenek
D
1
M. Ryan
G
M. Ryan
G
17
Nestory Irankunda
45'
F
Nestory Irankunda
45'
F
12
Paul Izzo
G
Paul Izzo
G
26
Tete Yengi
F
Tete Yengi
F
Best on the pitch
Alexander Freeman
D · USA
8.20
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 65 pass
M. Tillman
M · USA
7.60
· 42 pass
Alessandro Circati
D · Australia
7.50
1 shots
· 30 pass
Antonee Robinson
M · USA
7.30
· 44 pass
C. Richards
D · USA
7.20
· 95 pass
T. Ream
D · USA
7.00
· 76 pass
USA — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Freese | G | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 25 | 12% | — | — | — |
| T. Ream | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 76 | 68% | — | — | — |
| C. Richards | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 95 | 91% | 3 | 1 | — |
| Alexander Freeman | D | 90 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 65 | 59% | 4 | — | — |
| Antonee Robinson | M | 80 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 44 | 39% | 3 | 1 | — |
| M. Tillman | M | 90 | 7.60 | — | — | — | 42 | 35% | 3 | — | — |
| Tyler Adams | M | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 68 | 58% | 4 | — | — |
| W. McKennie | M | 89 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 35 | 29% | 3 | — | — |
| Sergiño Dest | M | 80 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 24 | 23% | — | — | — |
| R. Pepi | F | 74 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 17 | 12% | — | — | — |
| F. Balogun | F | 89 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 14 | 9% | — | 1 | — |
| Auston Trusty | D | 10 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | 1 | — | — |
| Giovanni Reyna | M | 1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Haji Wright | F | 1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| J. Scally | D | 10 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 5 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Sebastian Berhalter | M | 16 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 10 | 7% | — | — | — |
Australia — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Beach | G | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 15 | 10% | — | — | — |
| J. Bos | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 25 | 21% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Cameron Burgess | D | 45 | 5.30 | 1 | — | — | 19 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Harry Souttar | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 31 | 22% | — | 1 | — |
| Alessandro Circati | D | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | 1 | 30 | 21% | 3 | 1 | — |
| Jacob Italiano | D | 90 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 26 | 20% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Nishan Velupillay | M | 45 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 8 | 3% | 2 | — | — |
| Paul Okon-Engstler | M | 78 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 33 | 31% | 1 | — | — |
| Aiden O'Neill | M | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 38 | 26% | 1 | — | — |
| Mathew Leckie | M | 61 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 12 | 7% | — | — | — |
| M. Touré | F | 45 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 7 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| Connor Metcalfe | M | 45 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
| C. Volpato | M | 29 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 17 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Jackson Irvine | M | 12 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 7 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Jason Geria | D | 45 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 17 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
| Nestory Irankunda | F | 45 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 8 | 6% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of USA vs Australia?
The final score was USA 2–0 Australia.
What did the model predict before USA vs Australia?
The model assigned 44% probability to a USA win, 26% to a draw, and 29% to an Australia win.