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USA - Mexico

Friendlies Internazionali October 04, 2026 04:00
USA
vs
Mexico
⚡ Pre-match analysis
29.1%
Win
USA
27.29%
Draw
43.61%
Win
Mexico
1.13
Expected xG
1.9

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–1 (11.03%)
1X2 Result
1 29%
X 27%
2 44%
Double Chance
1X 56%
X2 71%
12 73%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 75%
Over 2.5 53%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Mexico a 43% win probability, against 27% for a draw and 29% for USA. Expected goals are 1.1 for USA and 1.9 for Mexico (total 3.0), with a 75% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 11.03% probability. In 1 previous meetings, USA have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Mexico.

Season Stats

USA
1W 0D 3L
Mexico
6W 2D 0L
Averages per game
1.5
Goals
1.9
2.8
Conceded
0.2
3.5
Shots OT
4.4
5.0
Corners
4.4
47%
Poss.
54%
Percentages
100%
O 1.5
50%
75%
O 2.5
25%
75%
BTTS
25%
0%
Clean Sht
75%
ℹ Based on the last 8 matches in Friendlies Internazionali. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
25%
O 3.5
38%
BTTS
USA
1W 0D 3L · at home
Mexico
2W 0D 0L · away
1.5
gls/g
1.0
2.8
Conceded
0.0
25%
Win %
100%
25%
Win or Draw
100%
100%
O 1.5
0%
75%
O 2.5
0%
50%
O 3.5
0%
75%
BTTS
0%
0%
Clean Sht
100%
25%
Failed to Score
0%
last 4
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ USA Mexico →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 4.8% 9.1% 8.7% 5.5% 2.6% 1.0%
1 5.4% 10.4% 9.9% 6.3% 3.0% 1.1%
2 3.1% 5.9% 5.6% 3.5% 1.7% 0.6%
3 1.2% 2.2% 2.1% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2%
4 0.3% 0.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% — —

Recent form

USA USA
L Germany 1–2
W Senegal 3–2
L Portugal 0–2
L Belgium 2–5
Home clean sheet (120 days) 33%
Mexico Mexico
W Serbia 5–1
W Australia 1–0
W Ghana 2–0
D Belgium 1–1
D Portugal 0–0
Away clean sheet (120 days) 37%

Playing profile

USA USA
Attack
37
Defence
48
Form
45
Mexico Mexico
Attack
48
Defence
89
Form
74
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

0
USA
0
Draw
1
Mexico
7 Jul 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup 1–2

Unavailable

USA
C. Pulišić
C. Pulišić
Injured
C. Roldan
C. Roldan
Injured
F. Balogun
F. Balogun
Injured
M. McKenzie
M. McKenzie
Injured
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win USA vs Mexico?
The model gives USA a 29% win probability, 27% for a draw, and 43% for an Mexico win.
How many goals are expected in USA vs Mexico?
Expected goals: USA 1.1, Mexico 1.9 (total 3.0). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 75%.
What is the most likely score in USA vs Mexico?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 11.03%.