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World Cup · Group Stage - 1 June 13, 2026 03:00
USA
#1 · 6 pts
4 – 1
Final score
Paraguay
#3 · 4 pts
D. Bobadilla 7' (og)
F. Balogun (ast. C. Pulisic) 31'
F. Balogun (ast. M. Tillman) 45'+5
G. Reyna (ast. A. Freeman) 90'+8
73' (ast. J. Enciso) Mauricio
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave USA a 44% win probability (draw 24%, Paraguay 30%). The final result was USA 4–1 Paraguay.

Match statistics
16
Total shots
9
6
Shots on target
1
1.27
Actual xG
0.51
0
Saves
3
65%
Possession
35%
3
Corners
1
7
Tackles
22
1
🟨 Yellow cards
5
Match Events
⚽D. Bobadilla (og)
7'
10'
J. Caceres
28'
⚽F. Balogun · ast. C. Pulisic
31'
⚽F. Balogun · ast. M. Tillman
45'+5
46'
Mauricio / D. Bobadilla ↕
↕ C. Pulisic / S. Berhalter
46'
53'
M. Almiron
T. Adams
59'
62'
A. Arce / A. Sanabria ↕
↕ S. Dest / T. Weah
72'
↕ F. Balogun / R. Pepi
72'
73'
ast. J. Enciso · Mauricio⚽
79'
D. Gomez
79'
R. Sosa / M. Almiron ↕
79'
G. Velazquez / J. Caceres ↕
80'
Kaku / D. Gomez ↕
↕ M. Tillman / G. Reyna
82'
88'
A. Arce
90'+3
J. Alonso
⚽G. Reyna · ast. A. Freeman
90'+8
Pre-match prediction
44.57%
USA ←
24.91%
X
30.52%
Paraguay
we assigned to the actual result (USA) 44.57% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
USA
1.89
1.27
-0.62
Paraguay
1.64
0.51
-1.13
USA dominated by xG (1.27 vs 0.51). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 USA USA 3 6
2 Australia Australia 3 4
3 Paraguay Paraguay 3 4
4 Türkiye Türkiye 3 3
Lineups
USA USA 4-2-3-1
24 Matthew Freese Matthew Freese G 6.06
5 Antonee Robinson Antonee Robinson D 6.82
13
Tim Ream D 7.30
3 C. Richards C. Richards D 7.10
16 Alexander Freeman Alexander Freeman 1 👟 D 7.33
17 M. Tillman M. Tillman 1 👟 82' M 7.49
4 Tyler Adams Tyler Adams M 6.62
10 C. Pulišić C. Pulišić 1 👟 45' M 7.70
8 Weston McKennie Weston McKennie M 6.48
2 Sergiño Dest Sergiño Dest 72' M 6.41
20 F. Balogun F. Balogun 2 ⚽ 72' F 9.10
Bench
6 Auston Trusty Auston Trusty D 0.00
26 A. Zendejas A. Zendejas F 0.00
11 B. Aaronson B. Aaronson M 0.00
25 Chris Brady Chris Brady G 0.00
15 C. Roldan C. Roldan M 0.00
7 Giovanni Reyna Giovanni Reyna 1 ⚽ 8' M 7.25
19 Haji Wright Haji Wright F 0.00
23 Joe Scally Joe Scally D 0.00
18 M. Arfsten M. Arfsten M 0.00
22 Mark McKenzie Mark McKenzie D 0.00
1 Matt Turner Matt Turner G 0.00
12 Miles Robinson Miles Robinson D 0.00
9 Ricardo Pepi Ricardo Pepi 18' F 6.70
14 Sebastian Berhalter Sebastian Berhalter 45' M 6.24
21 T. Weah T. Weah 18' F 6.38
Paraguay Paraguay 4-4-2
12 Orlando Gill Orlando Gill G 5.98
6 J. Alonso J. Alonso D 4.92
3 Omar Alderete Omar Alderete D 5.27
15 Gustavo Gómez Gustavo Gómez D 6.36
4 Juan Cáceres Juan Cáceres 79' D 4.92
10 M. Almirón M. Almirón 79' M 6.45
16 Damián Bobadilla Damián Bobadilla 1 ⚽ 45' M 5.84
14 A. Cubas A. Cubas M 5.86
8 D. Gómez D. Gómez 80' M 6.00
19 J. Enciso J. Enciso 1 👟 F 6.89
9 A. Sanabria A. Sanabria 62' F 6.20
Bench
17 Alejandro Romero Alejandro Romero 10' M 6.30
26 Alexandro Maidana Alexandro Maidana D 0.00
18 Alex Arce Alex Arce 28' F 6.12
20 Braian Ojeda Braian Ojeda M 0.00
5 Fabián Balbuena Fabián Balbuena D 0.00
22 Gastón Olveira Gastón Olveira G 0.00
21 G. Ávalos G. Ávalos F 0.00
24 Gustavo Caballero Gustavo Caballero F 0.00
2 Gustavo Velázquez Gustavo Velázquez 11' D 5.59
25 Isidro Pitta Isidro Pitta F 0.00
13 José Canale José Canale D 0.00
11 Mauricio Mauricio 1 ⚽ 45' M 7.50
23 M. Galarza M. Galarza M 0.00
7 Ramón Sosa Ramón Sosa 11' F 5.82
1 Roberto Fernández Roberto Fernández G
Best on the pitch
F. Balogun
F. Balogun
F · USA
9.10
2 ⚽
5 shots · 16 pass
C. Pulišić
C. Pulišić
M · USA
7.70
1 👟
· 22 pass
Mauricio
Mauricio
M · Paraguay
7.50
1 ⚽
1 shots · 20 pass
M. Tillman
M. Tillman
M · USA
7.49
1 👟
5 shots · 38 pass
Alexander Freeman
Alexander Freeman
D · USA
7.33
1 👟
· 74 pass
Tim Ream
D · USA
7.30
· 91 pass
USA USA — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Matthew Freese G 90 6.06 — — 0 20 12% 0 — —
Antonee Robinson D 90 6.82 — — 0 56 44% 0 — —
Tim Ream D 90 7.30 — — 0 91 85% 1 — —
C. Richards D 90 7.10 — — 1 83 83% 1 — —
Alexander Freeman D 90 7.33 — 1 0 74 64% 1 — —
M. Tillman M 82 7.49 — 1 5 38 30% 0 — —
Tyler Adams M 90 6.62 — — 0 58 52% 2 1 —
C. Pulišić M 45 7.70 — 1 0 22 18% 1 — —
Weston McKennie M 90 6.48 — — 0 51 39% 0 — —
Sergiño Dest M 72 6.41 — — 0 35 28% 0 — —
F. Balogun F 72 9.10 2 — 5 16 10% 0 — —
Giovanni Reyna M 8 7.25 1 — 1 8 8% 0 — —
Ricardo Pepi F 18 6.70 — — 1 3 3% 1 — —
Sebastian Berhalter M 45 6.24 — — 1 27 19% 0 — —
T. Weah F 18 6.38 — — 2 14 13% 0 — —
Paraguay Paraguay — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Orlando Gill G 90 5.98 — — 0 25 15% 0 — —
J. Alonso D 90 4.92 — — 0 34 23% 2 1 —
Omar Alderete D 90 5.27 — — 0 33 21% 0 — —
Gustavo Gómez D 90 6.36 — — 0 29 23% 1 — —
Juan Cáceres D 79 4.92 — — 0 32 20% 5 1 —
M. Almirón M 79 6.45 — — 2 23 18% 2 1 —
Damián Bobadilla M 45 5.84 1 — 0 11 9% 0 — —
A. Cubas M 90 5.86 — — 0 31 25% 5 — —
D. Gómez M 80 6.00 — — 4 26 21% 2 1 —
J. Enciso F 90 6.89 — 1 2 25 20% 2 — —
A. Sanabria F 62 6.20 — — 0 10 5% 0 — —
Alejandro Romero M 10 6.30 — — 0 9 6% 0 — —
Alex Arce F 28 6.12 — — 0 6 4% 1 1 —
Gustavo Velázquez D 11 5.59 — — 0 3 3% 0 — —
Mauricio M 45 7.50 1 — 1 20 14% 2 — —
Ramón Sosa F 11 5.82 — — 0 3 3% 0 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of USA vs Paraguay?
The final score was USA 4–1 Paraguay.
What did the model predict before USA vs Paraguay?
The model assigned 44% probability to a USA win, 24% to a draw, and 30% to an Paraguay win.