World Cup
· Group Stage - 1
June 13, 2026 03:00
D. Bobadilla
7'
(og)
F. Balogun
(ast. C. Pulisic)
31'
F. Balogun
(ast. M. Tillman)
45'+5
G. Reyna
(ast. A. Freeman)
90'+8
73'
(ast. J. Enciso)
Mauricio
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave USA a 44% win probability (draw 24%, Paraguay 30%). The final result was USA 4–1 Paraguay.
Match statistics
16
Total shots
9
6
Shots on target
1
1.27
Actual xG
0.51
0
Saves
3
65%
Possession
35%
3
Corners
1
7
Tackles
22
1
🟨 Yellow cards
5
Match Events
⚽D. Bobadilla
(og)
7'
10'
J. Caceres
28'
⚽F. Balogun
· ast. C. Pulisic
31'
⚽F. Balogun
· ast. M. Tillman
45'+5
46'
Mauricio
/
D. Bobadilla
C. Pulisic
/ S. Berhalter
46'
53'
M. Almiron
T. Adams
59'
62'
A. Arce
/
A. Sanabria
S. Dest
/ T. Weah
72'
F. Balogun
/ R. Pepi
72'
73'
ast. J. Enciso ·
Mauricio⚽
79'
D. Gomez
79'
R. Sosa
/
M. Almiron
79'
G. Velazquez
/
J. Caceres
80'
Kaku
/
D. Gomez
M. Tillman
/ G. Reyna
82'
88'
A. Arce
90'+3
J. Alonso
⚽G. Reyna
· ast. A. Freeman
90'+8
Pre-match prediction
44.57%
USA ←
24.91%
X
30.52%
Paraguay
we assigned to the actual result (USA)
44.57%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.89
1.27
-0.62
1.64
0.51
-1.13
USA dominated by xG (1.27 vs 0.51).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
24
Matthew Freese
G
Matthew Freese
G
5
Antonee Robinson
D
Antonee Robinson
D
13
T. Ream
D
T. Ream
D
3
Chris Richards
D
Chris Richards
D
16
Alexander Freeman
1 👟
D
Alexander Freeman
1 👟
D
17
Malik Tillman
1 👟
82'
M
Malik Tillman
1 👟
82'
M
4
Tyler Adams
M
Tyler Adams
M
10
C. Pulišić
1 👟
45'
M
C. Pulišić
1 👟
45'
M
8
W. McKennie
M
W. McKennie
M
2
Sergiño Dest
72'
M
Sergiño Dest
72'
M
20
F. Balogun
2 ⚽
72'
F
F. Balogun
2 ⚽
72'
F
Bench
6
Auston Trusty
D
Auston Trusty
D
26
A. Zendejas
F
A. Zendejas
F
11
B. Aaronson
M
B. Aaronson
M
25
Chris Brady
G
Chris Brady
G
15
C. Roldan
M
C. Roldan
M
7
Giovanni Reyna
1 ⚽
8'
M
Giovanni Reyna
1 ⚽
8'
M
19
Haji Wright
F
Haji Wright
F
23
J. Scally
D
J. Scally
D
18
M. Arfsten
M
M. Arfsten
M
12
Miles Robinson
D
Miles Robinson
D
22
M. McKenzie
D
M. McKenzie
D
1
M. Turner
G
M. Turner
G
9
R. Pepi
18'
F
R. Pepi
18'
F
14
Sebastian Berhalter
45'
M
Sebastian Berhalter
45'
M
21
T. Weah
18'
F
T. Weah
18'
F
12
Orlando Gill
G
6
Junior Alonso
D
3
Omar Alderete
D
15
Gustavo Gómez
D
4
Juan Cáceres
79'
D
10
M. Almirón
79'
M
M. Almirón
79'
M
16
Damián Bobadilla
1 ⚽
45'
M
Damián Bobadilla
1 ⚽
45'
M
14
A. Cubas
M
A. Cubas
M
8
Diego Gómez
80'
M
19
Julio Enciso
1 👟
F
9
Antonio Sanabria
62'
F
Bench
18
A. Arce
28'
F
A. Arce
28'
F
26
Alexandro Maidana
D
17
A. Romero
10'
M
A. Romero
10'
M
20
Braian Ojeda
M
Braian Ojeda
M
5
F. Balbuena
D
F. Balbuena
D
22
Gastón Olveira
G
21
G. Ávalos
F
G. Ávalos
F
24
Gustavo Caballero
F
2
Gustavo Velázquez
11'
D
Gustavo Velázquez
11'
D
25
I. Pitta
F
I. Pitta
F
13
José Canale
D
23
Matías Galarza
M
11
Maurício
1 ⚽
45'
M
Maurício
1 ⚽
45'
M
1
Roberto Fernández
G
Roberto Fernández
G
7
R. Sosa
11'
F
R. Sosa
11'
F
Best on the pitch
F. Balogun
F · USA
9.10
2 ⚽
5 shots
· 16 pass
C. Pulišić
M · USA
7.70
1 👟
· 22 pass
Maurício
M · Paraguay
7.50
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 20 pass
Malik Tillman
M · USA
7.49
1 👟
5 shots
· 38 pass
Alexander Freeman
D · USA
7.33
1 👟
· 74 pass
T. Ream
D · USA
7.30
· 91 pass
USA — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Freese | G | 90 | 6.06 | — | — | 0 | 20 | 12% | 0 | — | — |
| Antonee Robinson | D | 90 | 6.82 | — | — | 0 | 56 | 44% | 0 | — | — |
| T. Ream | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | 0 | 91 | 85% | 1 | — | — |
| Chris Richards | D | 90 | 7.10 | — | — | 1 | 83 | 83% | 1 | — | — |
| Alexander Freeman | D | 90 | 7.33 | — | 1 | 0 | 74 | 64% | 1 | — | — |
| Malik Tillman | M | 82 | 7.49 | — | 1 | 5 | 38 | 30% | 0 | — | — |
| Tyler Adams | M | 90 | 6.62 | — | — | 0 | 58 | 52% | 2 | 1 | — |
| C. Pulišić | M | 45 | 7.70 | — | 1 | 0 | 22 | 18% | 1 | — | — |
| W. McKennie | M | 90 | 6.48 | — | — | 0 | 51 | 39% | 0 | — | — |
| Sergiño Dest | M | 72 | 6.41 | — | — | 0 | 35 | 28% | 0 | — | — |
| F. Balogun | F | 72 | 9.10 | 2 | — | 5 | 16 | 10% | 0 | — | — |
| Giovanni Reyna | M | 8 | 7.25 | 1 | — | 1 | 8 | 8% | 0 | — | — |
| R. Pepi | F | 18 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 3 | 3% | 1 | — | — |
| Sebastian Berhalter | M | 45 | 6.24 | — | — | 1 | 27 | 19% | 0 | — | — |
| T. Weah | F | 18 | 6.38 | — | — | 2 | 14 | 13% | 0 | — | — |
Paraguay — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando Gill | G | 90 | 5.98 | — | — | 0 | 25 | 15% | 0 | — | — |
| Junior Alonso | D | 90 | 4.92 | — | — | 0 | 34 | 23% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Omar Alderete | D | 90 | 5.27 | — | — | 0 | 33 | 21% | 0 | — | — |
| Gustavo Gómez | D | 90 | 6.36 | — | — | 0 | 29 | 23% | 1 | — | — |
| Juan Cáceres | D | 79 | 4.92 | — | — | 0 | 32 | 20% | 5 | 1 | — |
| M. Almirón | M | 79 | 6.45 | — | — | 2 | 23 | 18% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Damián Bobadilla | M | 45 | 5.84 | 1 | — | 0 | 11 | 9% | 0 | — | — |
| A. Cubas | M | 90 | 5.86 | — | — | 0 | 31 | 25% | 5 | — | — |
| Diego Gómez | M | 80 | 6.00 | — | — | 4 | 26 | 21% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Julio Enciso | F | 90 | 6.89 | — | 1 | 2 | 25 | 20% | 2 | — | — |
| Antonio Sanabria | F | 62 | 6.20 | — | — | 0 | 10 | 5% | 0 | — | — |
| A. Arce | F | 28 | 6.12 | — | — | 0 | 6 | 4% | 1 | 1 | — |
| A. Romero | M | 10 | 6.30 | — | — | 0 | 9 | 6% | 0 | — | — |
| Gustavo Velázquez | D | 11 | 5.59 | — | — | 0 | 3 | 3% | 0 | — | — |
| Maurício | M | 45 | 7.50 | 1 | — | 1 | 20 | 14% | 2 | — | — |
| R. Sosa | F | 11 | 5.82 | — | — | 0 | 3 | 3% | 0 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of USA vs Paraguay?
The final score was USA 4–1 Paraguay.
What did the model predict before USA vs Paraguay?
The model assigned 44% probability to a USA win, 24% to a draw, and 30% to an Paraguay win.