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World Cup · Group Stage - 1 June 13, 2026 03:00
USA
#1 · 6 pts
4 – 1
Final score
Paraguay
#3 · 4 pts
D. Bobadilla 7' (og)
F. Balogun (ast. C. Pulisic) 31'
F. Balogun (ast. M. Tillman) 45'+5
G. Reyna (ast. A. Freeman) 90'+8
73' (ast. J. Enciso) Mauricio
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave USA a 44% win probability (draw 24%, Paraguay 30%). The final result was USA 4–1 Paraguay.

Match statistics
16
Total shots
9
6
Shots on target
1
1.27
Actual xG
0.51
0
Saves
3
65%
Possession
35%
3
Corners
1
7
Tackles
22
1
🟨 Yellow cards
5
Match Events
⚽D. Bobadilla (og)
7'
10'
J. Caceres
28'
⚽F. Balogun · ast. C. Pulisic
31'
⚽F. Balogun · ast. M. Tillman
45'+5
46'
Mauricio / D. Bobadilla ↕
↕ C. Pulisic / S. Berhalter
46'
53'
M. Almiron
T. Adams
59'
62'
A. Arce / A. Sanabria ↕
↕ S. Dest / T. Weah
72'
↕ F. Balogun / R. Pepi
72'
73'
ast. J. Enciso · Mauricio⚽
79'
D. Gomez
79'
R. Sosa / M. Almiron ↕
79'
G. Velazquez / J. Caceres ↕
80'
Kaku / D. Gomez ↕
↕ M. Tillman / G. Reyna
82'
88'
A. Arce
90'+3
J. Alonso
⚽G. Reyna · ast. A. Freeman
90'+8
Pre-match prediction
44.57%
USA ←
24.91%
X
30.52%
Paraguay
we assigned to the actual result (USA) 44.57% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
USA
1.89
1.27
-0.62
Paraguay
1.64
0.51
-1.13
USA dominated by xG (1.27 vs 0.51). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 USA USA 3 6
2 Australia Australia 3 4
3 Paraguay Paraguay 3 4
4 Türkiye Türkiye 3 3
Lineups
USA USA 4-2-3-1
24 M. Freese M. Freese G 6.06
5 A. Robinson A. Robinson D 6.82
13 T. Ream T. Ream D 7.30
3 C. Richards C. Richards D 7.10
16 A. Freeman A. Freeman 1 👟 D 7.33
17 M. Tillman M. Tillman 1 👟 82' M 7.49
4 T. Adams T. Adams M 6.62
10 C. Pulišić C. Pulišić 1 👟 45' M 7.70
8 W. McKennie W. McKennie M 6.48
2 S. Dest S. Dest 72' M 6.41
20 F. Balogun F. Balogun 2 ⚽ 72' F 9.10
Bench
6 A. Trusty A. Trusty D 0.00
26 A. Zendejas A. Zendejas F 0.00
11 B. Aaronson B. Aaronson M 0.00
25 C. Brady C. Brady G 0.00
15 C. Roldan C. Roldan M 0.00
7 G. Reyna G. Reyna 1 ⚽ 8' M 7.25
19 H. Wright H. Wright F 0.00
23 J. Scally J. Scally D 0.00
18 M. Arfsten M. Arfsten M 0.00
22 M. McKenzie M. McKenzie D 0.00
12 M. Robinson M. Robinson D 0.00
1 M. Turner M. Turner G 0.00
9 R. Pepi R. Pepi 18' F 6.70
14 S. Berhalter S. Berhalter 45' M 6.24
21 T. Weah T. Weah 18' F 6.38
Paraguay Paraguay 4-4-2
12 O. Gill O. Gill G 5.98
6 J. Alonso J. Alonso D 4.92
3 O. Alderete O. Alderete D 5.27
15 G. Gómez G. Gómez D 6.36
4 J. Cáceres J. Cáceres 79' D 4.92
10 M. Almirón M. Almirón 79' M 6.45
16 D. Bobadilla D. Bobadilla 1 ⚽ 45' M 5.84
14 A. Cubas A. Cubas M 5.86
8 D. Gómez D. Gómez 80' M 6.00
19 J. Enciso J. Enciso 1 👟 F 6.89
9 A. Sanabria A. Sanabria 62' F 6.20
Bench
18 A. Arce A. Arce 28' F 6.12
26 A. Maidana A. Maidana D 0.00
17 A. Romero A. Romero 10' M 6.30
20 B. Ojeda B. Ojeda M 0.00
5 F. Balbuena F. Balbuena D 0.00
21 G. Ávalos G. Ávalos F 0.00
24 G. Caballero G. Caballero F 0.00
22 G. Olveira G. Olveira G 0.00
2 G. Velázquez G. Velázquez 11' D 5.59
25 I. Pitta I. Pitta F 0.00
13 J. Canale J. Canale D 0.00
11 Maurício Maurício 1 ⚽ 45' M 7.50
23 M. Galarza M. Galarza M 0.00
1 Roberto Fernández Roberto Fernández G
7 R. Sosa R. Sosa 11' F 5.82
Best on the pitch
F. Balogun
F. Balogun
F · USA
9.10
2 ⚽
5 shots · 16 pass
C. Pulišić
C. Pulišić
M · USA
7.70
1 👟
· 22 pass
Maurício
Maurício
M · Paraguay
7.50
1 ⚽
1 shots · 20 pass
M. Tillman
M. Tillman
M · USA
7.49
1 👟
5 shots · 38 pass
A. Freeman
A. Freeman
D · USA
7.33
1 👟
· 74 pass
T. Ream
T. Ream
D · USA
7.30
· 91 pass
USA USA — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
M. Freese G 90 6.06 — — 0 20 12% 0 — —
A. Robinson D 90 6.82 — — 0 56 44% 0 — —
T. Ream D 90 7.30 — — 0 91 85% 1 — —
C. Richards D 90 7.10 — — 1 83 83% 1 — —
A. Freeman D 90 7.33 — 1 0 74 64% 1 — —
M. Tillman M 82 7.49 — 1 5 38 30% 0 — —
T. Adams M 90 6.62 — — 0 58 52% 2 1 —
C. Pulišić M 45 7.70 — 1 0 22 18% 1 — —
W. McKennie M 90 6.48 — — 0 51 39% 0 — —
S. Dest M 72 6.41 — — 0 35 28% 0 — —
F. Balogun F 72 9.10 2 — 5 16 10% 0 — —
G. Reyna M 8 7.25 1 — 1 8 8% 0 — —
R. Pepi F 18 6.70 — — 1 3 3% 1 — —
S. Berhalter M 45 6.24 — — 1 27 19% 0 — —
T. Weah F 18 6.38 — — 2 14 13% 0 — —
Paraguay Paraguay — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
O. Gill G 90 5.98 — — 0 25 15% 0 — —
J. Alonso D 90 4.92 — — 0 34 23% 2 1 —
O. Alderete D 90 5.27 — — 0 33 21% 0 — —
G. Gómez D 90 6.36 — — 0 29 23% 1 — —
J. Cáceres D 79 4.92 — — 0 32 20% 5 1 —
M. Almirón M 79 6.45 — — 2 23 18% 2 1 —
D. Bobadilla M 45 5.84 1 — 0 11 9% 0 — —
A. Cubas M 90 5.86 — — 0 31 25% 5 — —
D. Gómez M 80 6.00 — — 4 26 21% 2 1 —
J. Enciso F 90 6.89 — 1 2 25 20% 2 — —
A. Sanabria F 62 6.20 — — 0 10 5% 0 — —
A. Arce F 28 6.12 — — 0 6 4% 1 1 —
A. Romero M 10 6.30 — — 0 9 6% 0 — —
G. Velázquez D 11 5.59 — — 0 3 3% 0 — —
Maurício M 45 7.50 1 — 1 20 14% 2 — —
R. Sosa F 11 5.82 — — 0 3 3% 0 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of USA vs Paraguay?
The final score was USA 4–1 Paraguay.
What did the model predict before USA vs Paraguay?
The model assigned 44% probability to a USA win, 24% to a draw, and 30% to an Paraguay win.