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Eredivisie · Semi-finals May 21, 2026 21:00 Stadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht
Utrecht
#6 · 53 pts
3 – 2
Final score
Heerenveen
#8 · 51 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Utrecht
A. Stepanov 46'
M. van der Hoorn (ast. S. El Karouani) 56'
S. El Karouani (ast. N. Vesterlund) 58'
54' (ast. J. van Overeem) D. Vente
77' (ast. S. Kersten) J. Trenskow
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Utrecht a 61% win probability (draw 19%, Heerenveen 18%). The final result was Utrecht 3–2 Heerenveen. In 2 previous meetings, Utrecht have won 0 times, with 2 draws and 0 wins for Heerenveen.

Match statistics
14
Total shots
11
6
Shots on target
5
1.77
Actual xG
1.22
3
Saves
3
41%
Possession
59%
8
Corners
6
10
Tackles
9
0
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
↕ A. Engwanda / S. Horemans
45'
⚽A. Stepanov
46'
49'
M. Linday
54'
ast. J. van Overeem · D. Vente⚽
⚽M. van der Hoorn · ast. S. El Karouani
56'
⚽S. El Karouani · ast. N. Vesterlund
58'
↕ A. Stepanov / S. Haller
65'
69'
L. Nordas / L. Oyen ↕
77'
ast. S. Kersten · J. Trenskow⚽
78'
L. Brouwers / M. Linday ↕
↕ M. Eerdhuijzen / N. Viergever
80'
↕ J. Karlsson / A. Blake
80'
Pre-match prediction
61.54%
Utrecht ←
19.47%
X
18.99%
Heerenveen
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Utrecht) 61.54% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Utrecht
2.66
1.77
-0.89
Heerenveen
1.27
1.22
-0.05
Utrecht dominated by xG (1.77 vs 1.22). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Roda Roda 1 1
1 Willem II Willem II 1 3
1 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 34 84
2 Feyenoord Feyenoord 34 65
2 Waalwijk Waalwijk 1 1
2 Waalwijk Waalwijk 1 0
3 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 34 59
4 Twente Twente 34 58
5 Ajax Ajax 34 56
6 Utrecht Utrecht 34 53
7 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 34 52
8 Heerenveen Heerenveen 34 51
9 Groningen Groningen 34 48
10 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 34 43
11 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 34 39
12 GO Ahead Eagles GO Ahead Eagles 34 38
13 Excelsior Excelsior 34 38
14 Telstar Telstar 34 37
15 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 34 37
16 FC Volendam FC Volendam 34 32
17 NAC Breda NAC Breda 34 29
18 Heracles Heracles 34 19
Lineups
Utrecht Utrecht 4-2-3-1
1 Vasilis Barkas Vasilis Barkas G 6.90
16 S. El Karouani S. El Karouani 1 ⚽ 1 👟 D 8.00
44 Mike Eerdhuijzen Mike Eerdhuijzen 80' D 6.50
3 Mike Van der Hoorn Mike Van der Hoorn 1 ⚽ D 8.00
23 Niklas Vesterlund Niklas Vesterlund 1 👟 D 6.70
21 G. Zechiël G. Zechiël M 6.20
27 Alonzo Engwanda Alonzo Engwanda 45' M 6.70
11 Jesper Karlsson Jesper Karlsson 80' M 6.50
20 D. de Wit D. de Wit M 6.60
10 Yoann Cathline Yoann Cathline M 8.30
18 Artem Stepanov Artem Stepanov 1 ⚽ 65' F 7.70
Bench
15 Adrian Blake Adrian Blake 11' F 6.50
77 Ángel Alarcón Ángel Alarcón F
8 Can Bozdoğan Can Bozdoğan M
5 Emeka Adeile Emeka Adeile D
33 Kevin Gadellaa Kevin Gadellaa G
25 Michael Brouwer Michael Brouwer G
53 Neal Viereck Neal Viereck D
24 Nick Viergever Nick Viergever 11' D 6.30
57 Per Kloosterboer Per Kloosterboer D
43 R. El Arguioui R. El Arguioui M
91 Sébastien Haller Sébastien Haller 26' F 6.60
2 Siebe Horemans Siebe Horemans 46' D 6.30
Heerenveen Heerenveen 4-2-3-1
22 Bernt Klaverboer Bernt Klaverboer G 5.00
19 Vasilios Zagaritis Vasilios Zagaritis D 6.00
3 Maas Willemsen Maas Willemsen D 7.00
4 Sam Kersten Sam Kersten 1 👟 D 6.00
45 O. Braude O. Braude D 6.30
6 J. van Overeem J. van Overeem 1 👟 M 7.00
16 M. Linday M. Linday 78' M 6.60
11 Luca Oyen Luca Oyen 69' M 6.20
10 Ringo Meerveld Ringo Meerveld M 6.90
20 J. Trenskow J. Trenskow 1 ⚽ M 7.60
9 Dylan Vente Dylan Vente 1 ⚽ F 7.20
Bench
44 Andries Noppert Andries Noppert G
40 Clayton Bonevacia Clayton Bonevacia F
50 Eser Gürbüz Eser Gürbüz F
28
Hristiyan Petrov D
35 Isaiah Ahmed Isaiah Ahmed M
18 Lasse Selvåg Nordås Lasse Selvåg Nordås 22' F 6.30
8 Luuk Brouwers Luuk Brouwers 13' M 6.50
15 Mats Egbring Mats Egbring D
7 M. Rivera M. Rivera M
17 Nikolai Soyset Hopland Nikolai Soyset Hopland D
36 Nolhan Courtens Nolhan Courtens M
31 Nordin Bakker Nordin Bakker G
Best on the pitch
Yoann Cathline
Yoann Cathline
M · Utrecht
8.30
2 shots · 27 pass
S. El Karouani
S. El Karouani
D · Utrecht
8.00
1 ⚽ 1 👟
1 shots · 42 pass
Mike Van der Hoorn
Mike Van der Hoorn
D · Utrecht
8.00
1 ⚽
1 shots · 49 pass
Artem Stepanov
Artem Stepanov
F · Utrecht
7.70
1 ⚽
3 shots · 13 pass
J. Trenskow
J. Trenskow
M · Heerenveen
7.60
1 ⚽
4 shots · 37 pass
Dylan Vente
Dylan Vente
F · Heerenveen
7.20
1 ⚽
2 shots · 24 pass
Utrecht Utrecht — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Vasilis Barkas G 91 6.90 — — — 30 23% — — —
S. El Karouani D 91 8.00 1 1 1 42 35% 1 — —
Mike Eerdhuijzen D 80 6.50 — — — 42 32% — — —
Mike Van der Hoorn D 91 8.00 1 — 1 49 41% 1 — —
Niklas Vesterlund D 91 6.70 — 1 — 37 31% 2 — —
G. Zechiël M 91 6.20 — — 3 33 30% — — —
Alonzo Engwanda M 45 6.70 — — — 16 15% — — —
Jesper Karlsson M 80 6.50 — — 1 18 18% — — —
D. de Wit M 91 6.60 — — 1 25 17% 3 — —
Yoann Cathline M 91 8.30 — — 2 27 22% 1 — —
Artem Stepanov F 65 7.70 1 — 3 13 12% — — —
Adrian Blake F 11 6.50 — — 1 — — — — —
Nick Viergever D 11 6.30 — — — 1 1% — — —
Sébastien Haller F 26 6.60 — — 1 11 9% 1 — —
Siebe Horemans D 46 6.30 — — — 13 12% 1 — —
Heerenveen Heerenveen — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Bernt Klaverboer G 91 5.00 — — — 32 21% — — —
Vasilios Zagaritis D 91 6.00 — — 1 41 38% 2 — —
Maas Willemsen D 91 7.00 — — — 83 77% 1 — —
Sam Kersten D 91 6.00 — 1 — 59 52% — — —
O. Braude D 91 6.30 — — — 60 43% 1 — —
J. van Overeem M 91 7.00 — 1 — 68 58% 1 — —
M. Linday M 78 6.60 — — — 60 58% 1 1 —
Luca Oyen M 69 6.20 — — 2 14 14% — — —
Ringo Meerveld M 91 6.90 — — 1 44 38% 3 — —
J. Trenskow M 91 7.60 1 — 4 37 33% — — —
Dylan Vente F 91 7.20 1 — 2 24 18% — — —
Lasse Selvåg Nordås F 22 6.30 — — 1 6 3% — — —
Luuk Brouwers M 13 6.50 — — — 10 8% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Utrecht vs Heerenveen?
The final score was Utrecht 3–2 Heerenveen.
What did the model predict before Utrecht vs Heerenveen?
The model assigned 61% probability to a Utrecht win, 19% to a draw, and 18% to an Heerenveen win.