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Eredivisie · Semi-finals May 21, 2026 21:00 Stadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht
Utrecht
#11 · 12 pts
3 – 2
Final score
Heerenveen
#7 · 15 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Utrecht
A. Stepanov 46'
M. van der Hoorn (ast. S. El Karouani) 56'
S. El Karouani (ast. N. Vesterlund) 58'
54' (ast. J. van Overeem) D. Vente
77' (ast. S. Kersten) J. Trenskow
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Utrecht a 61% win probability (draw 19%, Heerenveen 18%). The final result was Utrecht 3–2 Heerenveen. In 2 previous meetings, Utrecht have won 0 times, with 2 draws and 0 wins for Heerenveen.

Match statistics
14
Total shots
11
6
Shots on target
5
1.77
Actual xG
1.22
3
Saves
3
41%
Possession
59%
8
Corners
6
10
Tackles
9
0
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
↕ A. Engwanda / S. Horemans
45'
⚽A. Stepanov
46'
49'
M. Linday
54'
ast. J. van Overeem · D. Vente⚽
⚽M. van der Hoorn · ast. S. El Karouani
56'
⚽S. El Karouani · ast. N. Vesterlund
58'
↕ A. Stepanov / S. Haller
65'
69'
L. Nordas / L. Oyen ↕
77'
ast. S. Kersten · J. Trenskow⚽
78'
L. Brouwers / M. Linday ↕
↕ M. Eerdhuijzen / N. Viergever
80'
↕ J. Karlsson / A. Blake
80'
Pre-match prediction
61.54%
Utrecht ←
19.47%
X
18.99%
Heerenveen
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Utrecht) 61.54% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Utrecht
2.66
1.77
-0.89
Heerenveen
1.27
1.22
-0.05
Utrecht dominated by xG (1.77 vs 1.22). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
Utrecht Utrecht 4-2-3-1
1 V. Barkas V. Barkas G 6.90
16 S. El Karouani S. El Karouani 1 ⚽ 1 👟 D 8.00
44 Mike Eerdhuijzen Mike Eerdhuijzen 80' D 6.50
3
M. van der Hoorn 1 ⚽ D 8.00
23 N. Vesterlund N. Vesterlund 1 👟 D 6.70
21 G. Zechiël G. Zechiël M 6.20
27 Alonzo Engwanda Alonzo Engwanda 45' M 6.70
11 J. Karlsson J. Karlsson 80' M 6.50
20 D. de Wit D. de Wit M 6.60
10 Y. Cathline Y. Cathline M 8.30
18 Artem Stepanov Artem Stepanov 1 ⚽ 65' F 7.70
Bench
15 A. Blake A. Blake 11' F 6.50
77 Ángel Alarcón Ángel Alarcón F
8 Can Bozdoğan Can Bozdoğan M
5 Emeka Adeile Emeka Adeile D
33 K. Gadellaa K. Gadellaa G
25 M. Brouwer M. Brouwer G
53 Neal Viereck Neal Viereck D
24 N. Viergever N. Viergever 11' D 6.30
57 P. Kloosterboer P. Kloosterboer D
43 R. El Arguioui R. El Arguioui M
91 S. Haller S. Haller 26' F 6.60
2 S. Horemans S. Horemans 46' D 6.30
Heerenveen Heerenveen 4-2-3-1
22 B. Klaverboer B. Klaverboer G 5.00
19 V. Zagaritis V. Zagaritis D 6.00
3 M. Willemsen M. Willemsen D 7.00
4 S. Kersten S. Kersten 1 👟 D 6.00
45 O. Braude O. Braude D 6.30
6 J. van Overeem J. van Overeem 1 👟 M 7.00
16 M. Linday M. Linday 78' M 6.60
11 L. Oyen L. Oyen 69' M 6.20
10 R. Meerveld R. Meerveld M 6.90
20 J. Trenskow J. Trenskow 1 ⚽ M 7.60
9 D. Vente D. Vente 1 ⚽ F 7.20
Bench
44 A. Noppert A. Noppert G
40 Clayton Bonevacia Clayton Bonevacia F
50 Eser Gürbüz Eser Gürbüz F
28 H. Petrov H. Petrov D
35 Isaiah Ahmed Isaiah Ahmed M
8
L. Brouwers 13' M 6.50
18 L. Nordås L. Nordås 22' F 6.30
15 M. Egbring M. Egbring D
7 M. Rivera M. Rivera M
31 N. Bakker N. Bakker G
36 N. Courtens N. Courtens M
17 N. Hopland N. Hopland D
Best on the pitch
Y. Cathline
Y. Cathline
M · Utrecht
8.30
2 shots · 27 pass
S. El Karouani
S. El Karouani
D · Utrecht
8.00
1 ⚽ 1 👟
1 shots · 42 pass
M. van der Hoorn
D · Utrecht
8.00
1 ⚽
1 shots · 49 pass
Artem Stepanov
Artem Stepanov
F · Utrecht
7.70
1 ⚽
3 shots · 13 pass
J. Trenskow
J. Trenskow
M · Heerenveen
7.60
1 ⚽
4 shots · 37 pass
D. Vente
D. Vente
F · Heerenveen
7.20
1 ⚽
2 shots · 24 pass
Utrecht Utrecht — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
V. Barkas G 91 6.90 — — — 30 23% — — —
S. El Karouani D 91 8.00 1 1 1 42 35% 1 — —
Mike Eerdhuijzen D 80 6.50 — — — 42 32% — — —
M. van der Hoorn D 91 8.00 1 — 1 49 41% 1 — —
N. Vesterlund D 91 6.70 — 1 — 37 31% 2 — —
G. Zechiël M 91 6.20 — — 3 33 30% — — —
Alonzo Engwanda M 45 6.70 — — — 16 15% — — —
J. Karlsson M 80 6.50 — — 1 18 18% — — —
D. de Wit M 91 6.60 — — 1 25 17% 3 — —
Y. Cathline M 91 8.30 — — 2 27 22% 1 — —
Artem Stepanov F 65 7.70 1 — 3 13 12% — — —
A. Blake F 11 6.50 — — 1 — — — — —
N. Viergever D 11 6.30 — — — 1 1% — — —
S. Haller F 26 6.60 — — 1 11 9% 1 — —
S. Horemans D 46 6.30 — — — 13 12% 1 — —
Heerenveen Heerenveen — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
B. Klaverboer G 91 5.00 — — — 32 21% — — —
V. Zagaritis D 91 6.00 — — 1 41 38% 2 — —
M. Willemsen D 91 7.00 — — — 83 77% 1 — —
S. Kersten D 91 6.00 — 1 — 59 52% — — —
O. Braude D 91 6.30 — — — 60 43% 1 — —
J. van Overeem M 91 7.00 — 1 — 68 58% 1 — —
M. Linday M 78 6.60 — — — 60 58% 1 1 —
L. Oyen M 69 6.20 — — 2 14 14% — — —
R. Meerveld M 91 6.90 — — 1 44 38% 3 — —
J. Trenskow M 91 7.60 1 — 4 37 33% — — —
D. Vente F 91 7.20 1 — 2 24 18% — — —
L. Brouwers M 13 6.50 — — — 10 8% — — —
L. Nordås F 22 6.30 — — 1 6 3% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Utrecht vs Heerenveen?
The final score was Utrecht 3–2 Heerenveen.
What did the model predict before Utrecht vs Heerenveen?
The model assigned 61% probability to a Utrecht win, 19% to a draw, and 18% to an Heerenveen win.