Utrecht 4–1 Telstar — pre-match prediction — Eredivisie — April 11, 2026

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Eredivisie · Regular Season - 30 April 11, 2026 16:30 Stadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht

Utrecht

#11 · 12 pts

4 – 1

Final score

Telstar

#16 · 6 pts

✓Model correct — prediction Utrecht

M. Didden (ast. D. de Wit) 10'

G. Zechiel (ast. Y. Cathline) 61'

D. de Wit 72'

J. Karlsson 90'+1

58' (ast. C. Hatenboer) D. Bakker

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Utrecht a 64% win probability (draw 17%, Telstar 17%). The final result was Utrecht 4–1 Telstar. In 1 previous meetings, Utrecht have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Telstar.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

1.57

Actual xG

1.32

Saves

41%

Possession

59%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

⚽M. Didden · ast. D. de Wit

10'

S. El Karouani

38'

48'

N. Ogidi Nwankwo

58'

ast. C. Hatenboer · D. Bakker⚽

⚽G. Zechiel · ast. Y. Cathline

61'

63'

N. Rossen / J. Ritmeester van de Kamp ↕

D. de Wit

67'

⚽D. de Wit

72'

76'

R. Oudsten / S. van Duijn ↕

76'

S. Hetli / T. Noslin ↕

↕ A. Alarcon / J. Karlsson

76'

84'

K. Tejan / C. Hatenboer ↕

84'

J. Seedorf / P. Brouwer ↕

↕ G. Zechiel / S. Horemans

87'

⚽J. Karlsson

90'+1

↕ A. Stepanov / S. Haller

90'

↕ S. El Karouani / E. Adiele

90'

Pre-match prediction

64.57%

Utrecht ←

17.76%

17.67%

Telstar

✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Utrecht) 64.57% (high confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Utrecht

2.46

1.57

-0.89

Telstar

1.06

1.32

+0.26

xG dominance was balanced (1.57 – 1.32). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Feyenoord	10	24
2	Ajax	10	21
3	PSV Eindhoven	10	20
4	Twente	10	20
5	AZ Alkmaar	10	20
6	Fortuna Sittard	10	18
7	Heerenveen	10	15
8	Groningen	10	15
9	GO Ahead Eagles	10	14
10	Cambuur	10	12
11	Utrecht	10	12
12	NEC Nijmegen	10	11
13	Excelsior	10	11
14	Sparta Rotterdam	10	9
15	PEC Zwolle	10	8
16	Telstar	10	6
17	ADO Den Haag	10	6
18	Willem II	10	2

Lineups

Utrecht 4-2-3-1

G 8.60

S. El Karouani 89' D 6.60

D 6.70

M. Didden 1 ⚽ D 7.90

N. Vesterlund D 6.90

G. Zechiël 1 ⚽ 87' M 7.00

Alonzo Engwanda M 7.00

Y. Cathline 1 👟 M 7.20

D. de Wit 1 ⚽ 1 👟 M 7.90

A. Alarcon 76' M 6.60

Artem Stepanov 89' F 7.50

Bench

A. Blake F

Emeka Adeile 1' D

J. Karlsson 1 ⚽ 14' F 7.30

Mike Eerdhuijzen D

Neal Viereck D

R. El Arguioui M

S. Haller 1' F

S. Horemans 8' D 6.60

Telstar 3-4-2-1

Ronald Koeman Jr G 7.20

D. Bakker 1 ⚽ D 7.30

G. Offerhaus D 6.20

D 5.20

Jeff Hardeveld M 6.00

Tyrone Owusu M 6.60

84' M 6.70

T. Noslin 76' M 7.00

Patrick Brouwer 84' F 6.20

Jochem Ritmeester van de Kamp 63' F 6.30

S. van Duijn 76' F 6.30

Bench

Devon Koswal D

Jelani Seedorf 11' F 7.00

Nigel Ogidi Nwankwo D

Best on the pitch

G · Utrecht

8.60

· 30 pass

M. Didden

D · Utrecht

7.90

1 ⚽

2 shots · 36 pass

D. de Wit

M · Utrecht

7.90

1 ⚽ 1 👟

2 shots · 19 pass

Artem Stepanov

F · Utrecht

7.50

1 shots · 17 pass

J. Karlsson

F · Utrecht

7.30

1 ⚽

1 shots

D. Bakker

D · Telstar

7.30

1 ⚽

1 shots · 71 pass

Utrecht — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
	G	90	8.60	—	—	—	30	19%	—	—	—
S. El Karouani	D	89	6.60	—	—	4	31	26%	2	1	—
	D	90	6.70	—	—	—	33	29%	2	—	—
M. Didden	D	90	7.90	1	—	2	36	31%	2	—	—
N. Vesterlund	D	90	6.90	—	—	—	30	24%	1	—	—
G. Zechiël	M	87	7.00	1	—	1	29	24%	2	—	—
Alonzo Engwanda	M	90	7.00	—	—	—	34	32%	2	—	—
Y. Cathline	M	90	7.20	—	1	2	18	12%	1	—	—
D. de Wit	M	90	7.90	1	1	2	19	15%	—	1	—
A. Alarcon	M	76	6.60	—	—	2	18	11%	—	—	—
Artem Stepanov	F	89	7.50	—	—	1	17	11%	2	—	—
Emeka Adeile	D	1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
J. Karlsson	F	14	7.30	1	—	1	—	—	—	—	—
S. Haller	F	1	—	—	—	—	1	1%	—	—	—
S. Horemans	D	8	6.60	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Telstar — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Ronald Koeman Jr	G	90	7.20	—	—	—	43	38%	—	—	—
D. Bakker	D	90	7.30	1	—	1	71	62%	2	—	—
G. Offerhaus	D	90	6.20	—	—	—	47	43%	2	—	—
	D	90	5.20	—	—	1	39	37%	—	1	—
Jeff Hardeveld	M	90	6.00	—	—	—	45	35%	—	—	—
Tyrone Owusu	M	90	6.60	—	—	2	37	31%	2	—	—
	M	84	6.70	—	—	—	51	40%	2	—	—
T. Noslin	M	76	7.00	—	—	—	26	22%	3	—	—
Patrick Brouwer	F	84	6.20	—	—	1	13	12%	—	—	—
Jochem Ritmeester van de Kamp	F	63	6.30	—	—	—	20	19%	1	—	—
S. van Duijn	F	76	6.30	—	—	3	22	13%	1	—	—
Jelani Seedorf	F	11	7.00	—	—	—	3	3%	—	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Utrecht vs Telstar?

The final score was Utrecht 4–1 Telstar.

What did the model predict before Utrecht vs Telstar?

The model assigned 64% probability to a Utrecht win, 17% to a draw, and 17% to an Telstar win.