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La Liga · Regular Season - 38 May 23, 2026 21:00 Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia
Valencia
#20 · 1 pts
3 – 1
Final score
Barcelona
#1 · 12 pts
✗Model wrong — prediction Barcelona, result Valencia wins
J. Guerra 66'
L. Rioja 71'
G. Rodriguez 90'+7
61' (ast. F. Torres) R. Lewandowski
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Barcelona a 51% win probability (draw 22%, Valencia 26%). The final result was Valencia 3–1 Barcelona. In 2 previous meetings, Valencia have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 2 wins for Barcelona.

Match statistics
15
Total shots
9
6
Shots on target
4
1.48
Actual xG
1.36
3
Saves
3
24%
Possession
76%
7
Corners
8
14
Tackles
14
2
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
46'
X. Espart / R. Araujo ↕
↕ D. Lopez / L. Ramazani
52'
61'
ast. F. Torres · R. Lewandowski⚽
62'
A. Christensen / E. Garcia ↕
62'
F. de Jong / D. Olmo ↕
C. Tarrega
63'
U. Nunez
65'
⚽J. Guerra
66'
70'
A. Christensen
⚽L. Rioja
71'
79'
M. Bernal
↕ H. Duro / U. Sadiq
80'
↕ J. Vazquez / T. Rendall
80'
83'
M. Casado / M. Bernal ↕
83'
J. Cancelo / F. Torres ↕
↕ J. Guerra / A. Almeida
90'+7
⚽G. Rodriguez
90'+7
Pre-match prediction
26.43%
Valencia ←
22.26%
X
51.3%
Barcelona
✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Valencia) 26.43% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Valencia
1.19
1.48
+0.29
Barcelona
1.78
1.36
-0.42
xG dominance was balanced (1.48 – 1.36). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Barcelona Barcelona 4 12
2 Alaves Alaves 5 10
3 Sevilla Sevilla 5 10
4 Real Madrid Real Madrid 4 9
5 Real Betis Real Betis 4 9
6 Deportivo La Coruna Deportivo La Coruna 4 8
7 Espanyol Espanyol 5 7
8 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 4 7
9 Racing Santander Racing Santander 5 7
10 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 5 7
11 Osasuna Osasuna 5 7
12 Athletic Club Athletic Club 4 6
13 Levante Levante 4 5
14 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 4 4
15 Getafe Getafe 4 4
16 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 5 3
17 Villarreal Villarreal 4 2
18 Malaga Malaga 4 2
19 Elche Elche 4 1
20 Valencia Valencia 5 1
Lineups
Valencia Valencia 4-4-2
1 S. Dimitrievski S. Dimitrievski G 6.90
21 Jesús Vázquez Jesús Vázquez 80' D 6.60
18 Pepelu Pepelu D 6.50
5 César Tárrega César Tárrega D 6.30
4 Unai Núñez Unai Núñez D 6.50
16 Diego López Diego López 52' M 7.20
2 Guido Rodríguez Guido Rodríguez 1 ⚽ M 7.90
23 F. Ugrinic F. Ugrinic M 6.90
11 Luis Rioja Luis Rioja 1 ⚽ M 7.30
9 Hugo Duro Hugo Duro 80' F 6.30
8 Javi Guerra Javi Guerra 1 ⚽ 89' F 7.90
Bench
7 A. Danjuma A. Danjuma F
10 André Almeida André Almeida 1' M
22 B. Santamaría B. Santamaría M
19 Dani Raba Dani Raba F
27 David Otorbi David Otorbi F
25 Julen Agirrezabala Julen Agirrezabala G
17 L. Ramazani L. Ramazani 38' F 6.90
29 Lucas Núñez Lucas Núñez M
26 Rubén Iranzo Rubén Iranzo D
44 Rubi Rubi D
12 Thierry Correia Thierry Correia 10' D 6.60
6 Umar Sadiq Umar Sadiq 10' F 6.30
Barcelona Barcelona 4-2-3-1
25 W. Szczęsny W. Szczęsny G 5.90
3 Alejandro Balde Alejandro Balde D 6.20
18 Gerard Martín Gerard Martín D 7.30
4 R. Araújo R. Araújo 45' D 8.60
24 Eric García Eric García 62' D 7.50
6 Gavi Gavi M 6.70
22 Marc Bernal Marc Bernal 83' M 6.30
14 M. Rashford M. Rashford M 6.30
20 Dani Olmo Dani Olmo 62' M 6.30
7 Ferran Torres Ferran Torres 1 👟 83' M 6.70
9 R. Lewandowski R. Lewandowski 1 ⚽ F 7.60
Bench
15 A. Christensen A. Christensen 28' D 5.60
36 Álvaro Cortés Moyano Álvaro Cortés Moyano D
31 D. Kochen D. Kochen G
21 F. de Jong F. de Jong 28' M 6.20
13 Joan García Joan García G
2 João Cancelo João Cancelo 17' D 6.90
17 Marc Casadó Marc Casadó 17' M 6.20
5 Pau Cubarsí Paredes Pau Cubarsí Paredes D
8 Pedri Pedri M
19 R. Bardghji R. Bardghji F
43 Tomás Marqués Tomás Marqués M
42 X. Espart X. Espart 45' D 5.50
Best on the pitch
R. Araújo
R. Araújo
D · Barcelona
8.60
1 shots · 51 pass
Guido Rodríguez
Guido Rodríguez
M · Valencia
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots · 24 pass
Javi Guerra
Javi Guerra
F · Valencia
7.90
1 ⚽
2 shots · 11 pass
R. Lewandowski
R. Lewandowski
F · Barcelona
7.60
1 ⚽
2 shots · 22 pass
Eric García
Eric García
D · Barcelona
7.50
· 73 pass
Gerard Martín
Gerard Martín
D · Barcelona
7.30
· 104 pass
Valencia Valencia — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
S. Dimitrievski G 90 6.90 — — — 20 9% — — —
Jesús Vázquez D 80 6.60 — — — 17 12% 1 — —
Pepelu D 90 6.50 — — — 29 19% — — —
César Tárrega D 90 6.30 — — 1 20 17% 1 1 —
Unai Núñez D 90 6.50 — — 4 20 16% 3 1 —
Diego López M 52 7.20 — — 2 11 9% 1 — —
Guido Rodríguez M 90 7.90 1 — 1 24 20% 4 — —
F. Ugrinic M 90 6.90 — — 1 16 15% — — —
Luis Rioja M 90 7.30 1 — 1 13 11% 1 — —
Hugo Duro F 80 6.30 — — 1 8 4% 1 — —
Javi Guerra F 89 7.90 1 — 2 11 8% — — —
André Almeida M 1 — — — — 2 2% — — —
L. Ramazani F 38 6.90 — — 2 6 3% 1 — —
Thierry Correia D 10 6.60 — — — 1 1% 1 — —
Umar Sadiq F 10 6.30 — — — 3 2% — — —
Barcelona Barcelona — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
W. Szczęsny G 90 5.90 — — — 32 29% — — —
Alejandro Balde D 90 6.20 — — 1 58 54% — — —
Gerard Martín D 90 7.30 — — — 104 95% 3 — —
R. Araújo D 45 8.60 — — 1 51 50% 3 — —
Eric García D 62 7.50 — — — 73 67% 2 — —
Gavi M 90 6.70 — — — 51 45% 2 — —
Marc Bernal M 83 6.30 — — — 48 45% 2 1 —
M. Rashford M 90 6.30 — — — 36 32% — — —
Dani Olmo M 62 6.30 — — — 36 29% — — —
Ferran Torres M 83 6.70 — 1 2 43 33% — — —
R. Lewandowski F 90 7.60 1 — 2 22 19% — — —
A. Christensen D 28 5.60 — — 2 34 33% — 1 —
F. de Jong M 28 6.20 — — — 24 24% — — —
João Cancelo D 17 6.90 — — — 12 11% — — —
Marc Casadó M 17 6.20 — — — 19 17% — — —
X. Espart D 45 5.50 — — 1 43 38% 2 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Valencia vs Barcelona?
The final score was Valencia 3–1 Barcelona.
What did the model predict before Valencia vs Barcelona?
The model assigned 26% probability to a Valencia win, 22% to a draw, and 51% to an Barcelona win.