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La Liga · Regular Season - 38 May 23, 2026 21:00 Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia
Valencia
#9 · 49 pts
3 – 1
Final score
Barcelona
#1 · 94 pts
✗Model wrong — prediction Barcelona, result Valencia wins
J. Guerra 66'
L. Rioja 71'
G. Rodriguez 90'+7
61' (ast. F. Torres) R. Lewandowski
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Barcelona a 51% win probability (draw 22%, Valencia 26%). The final result was Valencia 3–1 Barcelona. In 1 previous meetings, Valencia have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Barcelona.

Match statistics
15
Total shots
9
6
Shots on target
4
1.48
Actual xG
1.36
3
Saves
3
24%
Possession
76%
7
Corners
8
14
Tackles
14
2
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
46'
X. Espart / R. Araujo ↕
↕ D. Lopez / L. Ramazani
52'
61'
ast. F. Torres · R. Lewandowski⚽
62'
A. Christensen / E. Garcia ↕
62'
F. de Jong / D. Olmo ↕
C. Tarrega
63'
U. Nunez
65'
⚽J. Guerra
66'
70'
A. Christensen
⚽L. Rioja
71'
79'
M. Bernal
↕ H. Duro / U. Sadiq
80'
↕ J. Vazquez / T. Rendall
80'
83'
M. Casado / M. Bernal ↕
83'
J. Cancelo / F. Torres ↕
↕ J. Guerra / A. Almeida
90'+7
⚽G. Rodriguez
90'+7
Pre-match prediction
26.43%
Valencia ←
22.26%
X
51.3%
Barcelona
✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Valencia) 26.43% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Valencia
1.19
1.48
+0.29
Barcelona
1.78
1.36
-0.42
xG dominance was balanced (1.48 – 1.36). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Barcelona Barcelona 38 94
2 Real Madrid Real Madrid 38 86
3 Villarreal Villarreal 38 72
4 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 38 69
5 Real Betis Real Betis 38 60
6 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 38 54
7 Getafe Getafe 38 51
8 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 38 50
9 Valencia Valencia 38 49
10 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 38 46
11 Espanyol Espanyol 38 46
12 Athletic Club Athletic Club 38 45
13 Sevilla Sevilla 38 43
14 Alaves Alaves 38 43
15 Elche Elche 38 43
16 Levante Levante 38 42
17 Osasuna Osasuna 38 42
18 Mallorca Mallorca 38 42
19 Girona Girona 38 41
20 Oviedo Oviedo 38 29
Lineups
Valencia Valencia 4-4-2
1 Stole Dimitrievski Stole Dimitrievski G 6.90
21 Jesús Vázquez Jesús Vázquez 80' D 6.60
18 Pepelu Pepelu D 6.50
5 César Tárrega César Tárrega D 6.30
4 Unai Núñez Unai Núñez D 6.50
16 Diego López Diego López 52' M 7.20
2 Guido Rodríguez Guido Rodríguez 1 ⚽ M 7.90
23 Filip Ugrinić Filip Ugrinić M 6.90
11 Luis Rioja Luis Rioja 1 ⚽ M 7.30
9 Hugo Duro Hugo Duro 80' F 6.30
8 Javi Guerra Javi Guerra 1 ⚽ 89' F 7.90
Bench
10 André Almeida André Almeida 1' M
7 Arnaut Danjuma Arnaut Danjuma F
22 B. Santamaría B. Santamaría M
19 Dani Raba Dani Raba F
27 David Otorbi David Otorbi F
25 Julen Agirrezabala Julen Agirrezabala G
17 Largie Ramazani Largie Ramazani 38' F 6.90
29 Lucas Núñez Lucas Núñez M
26 Rubén Iranzo Rubén Iranzo D
44 Rubi Rubi D
12 Thierry Correia Thierry Correia 10' D 6.60
6 Umar Sadiq Umar Sadiq 10' F 6.30
Barcelona Barcelona 4-2-3-1
25 Wojciech Szczęsny Wojciech Szczęsny G 5.90
3 Alejandro Balde Alejandro Balde D 6.20
18 Gerard Martín Gerard Martín D 7.30
4 Ronald Araújo Ronald Araújo 45' D 8.60
24 Eric García Eric García 62' D 7.50
6 Pablo Gavi Pablo Gavi M 6.70
22 Marc Bernal Marc Bernal 83' M 6.30
14 M. Rashford M. Rashford M 6.30
20 Dani Olmo Dani Olmo 62' M 6.30
7 Ferran Torres Ferran Torres 1 👟 83' M 6.70
9 R. Lewandowski R. Lewandowski 1 ⚽ F 7.60
Bench
36 Álvaro Cortés Álvaro Cortés D
15 Andreas Christensen Andreas Christensen 28' D 5.60
31 Diego Kochen Diego Kochen G
21 F. de Jong F. de Jong 28' M 6.20
13 Joan García Joan García G
2 João Cancelo João Cancelo 17' D 6.90
17 Marc Casadó Marc Casadó 17' M 6.20
5 Pau Cubarsí Pau Cubarsí D
8 Pedri Pedri M
19 R. Bardghji R. Bardghji F
43 Tomás Marqués Tomás Marqués M
42 Xavi Espart Xavi Espart 45' D 5.50
Best on the pitch
Ronald Araújo
Ronald Araújo
D · Barcelona
8.60
1 shots · 51 pass
Guido Rodríguez
Guido Rodríguez
M · Valencia
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots · 24 pass
Javi Guerra
Javi Guerra
F · Valencia
7.90
1 ⚽
2 shots · 11 pass
R. Lewandowski
R. Lewandowski
F · Barcelona
7.60
1 ⚽
2 shots · 22 pass
Eric García
Eric García
D · Barcelona
7.50
· 73 pass
Gerard Martín
Gerard Martín
D · Barcelona
7.30
· 104 pass
Valencia Valencia — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Stole Dimitrievski G 90 6.90 — — — 20 9% — — —
Jesús Vázquez D 80 6.60 — — — 17 12% 1 — —
Pepelu D 90 6.50 — — — 29 19% — — —
César Tárrega D 90 6.30 — — 1 20 17% 1 1 —
Unai Núñez D 90 6.50 — — 4 20 16% 3 1 —
Diego López M 52 7.20 — — 2 11 9% 1 — —
Guido Rodríguez M 90 7.90 1 — 1 24 20% 4 — —
Filip Ugrinić M 90 6.90 — — 1 16 15% — — —
Luis Rioja M 90 7.30 1 — 1 13 11% 1 — —
Hugo Duro F 80 6.30 — — 1 8 4% 1 — —
Javi Guerra F 89 7.90 1 — 2 11 8% — — —
André Almeida M 1 — — — — 2 2% — — —
Largie Ramazani F 38 6.90 — — 2 6 3% 1 — —
Thierry Correia D 10 6.60 — — — 1 1% 1 — —
Umar Sadiq F 10 6.30 — — — 3 2% — — —
Barcelona Barcelona — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Wojciech Szczęsny G 90 5.90 — — — 32 29% — — —
Alejandro Balde D 90 6.20 — — 1 58 54% — — —
Gerard Martín D 90 7.30 — — — 104 95% 3 — —
Ronald Araújo D 45 8.60 — — 1 51 50% 3 — —
Eric García D 62 7.50 — — — 73 67% 2 — —
Pablo Gavi M 90 6.70 — — — 51 45% 2 — —
Marc Bernal M 83 6.30 — — — 48 45% 2 1 —
M. Rashford M 90 6.30 — — — 36 32% — — —
Dani Olmo M 62 6.30 — — — 36 29% — — —
Ferran Torres M 83 6.70 — 1 2 43 33% — — —
R. Lewandowski F 90 7.60 1 — 2 22 19% — — —
Andreas Christensen D 28 5.60 — — 2 34 33% — 1 —
F. de Jong M 28 6.20 — — — 24 24% — — —
João Cancelo D 17 6.90 — — — 12 11% — — —
Marc Casadó M 17 6.20 — — — 19 17% — — —
Xavi Espart D 45 5.50 — — 1 43 38% 2 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Valencia vs Barcelona?
The final score was Valencia 3–1 Barcelona.
What did the model predict before Valencia vs Barcelona?
The model assigned 26% probability to a Valencia win, 22% to a draw, and 51% to an Barcelona win.