Brasileirão Série A
· Regular Season - 15
May 11, 2026 01:30
Thiago Mendes
(ast. J. Rodriguez)
37'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Vasco DA Gama a 47% win probability (draw 24%, Atletico Paranaense 28%). The final result was Vasco DA Gama 1–0 Atletico Paranaense.
Match statistics
12
Total shots
7
6
Shots on target
3
2.22
Actual xG
0.66
3
Saves
5
53%
Possession
47%
4
Corners
3
25
Tackles
17
4
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
7'
J. Portilla
Thiago Mendes
7'
11'
Leo Derik
/
C. Teran
⚽Thiago Mendes
· ast. J. Rodriguez
37'
J. Rojas
63'
63'
Felipinho
/
Luiz Gustavo
J. Rojas
/ Tche Tche
69'
Robert Renan
69'
72'
Chiqueti
/
Bruninho
73'
Isaac
/
Renan Peixoto
73'
B. Zapelli
/
Joao Cruz
C. Spinelli
/ Brenner
77'
Adson
/ N. Moreira
77'
Lucas Piton
/ Lucas Freitas
90'+1
Andres Gomez
/ Ramon Rique
90'+1
Andres Gomez
90'
Pre-match prediction
47.75%
Vasco ←
24.24%
X
28.0%
Atletico
we assigned to the actual result (Vasco DA Gama)
47.75%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.64
2.22
+0.58
1.18
0.66
-0.52
Vasco DA Gama dominated by xG (2.22 vs 0.66).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Léo Jardim
G
Léo Jardim
G
6
Lucas Piton
D
Lucas Piton
D
30
Robert Renan
D
Robert Renan
D
46
C. Cuesta
D
C. Cuesta
D
2
J. Rodríguez
1 👟
D
J. Rodríguez
1 👟
D
23
Thiago Mendes
1 ⚽
M
Thiago Mendes
1 ⚽
M
25
Hugo Moura
M
Hugo Moura
M
11
A. Gómez
M
A. Gómez
M
10
J. Rojas
69'
M
J. Rojas
69'
M
28
Adson
77'
M
Adson
77'
M
77
C. Spinelli
77'
F
C. Spinelli
77'
F
Bench
4
Alan Saldivia
D
Alan Saldivia
D
20
Brenner
20'
F
Brenner
20'
F
13
Daniel Fuzato
G
Daniel Fuzato
G
7
David
F
David
F
98
JP
M
JP
M
43
Lucas Freitas
6'
D
Lucas Freitas
6'
D
18
Marino Hinestroza
F
Marino Hinestroza
F
9
Matheus França
F
Matheus França
F
17
Nuno Moreira
20'
M
Nuno Moreira
20'
M
83
Ramon Rique
6'
M
Ramon Rique
6'
M
82
Riquelme Avellar
D
Riquelme Avellar
D
3
Tchê Tchê
28'
M
Tchê Tchê
28'
M
23
Santos
G
Santos
G
4
Arthur Dias
D
Arthur Dias
D
33
Juan Felipe Aguirre
D
Juan Felipe Aguirre
D
22
Carlos Terán
11'
D
Carlos Terán
11'
D
7
S. Mendoza
M
S. Mendoza
M
14
Luiz Gustavo
63'
M
Luiz Gustavo
63'
M
27
Juan Portilla
M
Juan Portilla
M
2
Gilberto Junior
M
Gilberto Junior
M
8
João Cruz
73'
F
João Cruz
73'
F
48
Bruno Braga Ramos
72'
F
Bruno Braga Ramos
72'
F
70
Renan Peixoto Nepomuceno
73'
F
Renan Peixoto Nepomuceno
73'
F
Bench
10
B. Zapelli
24'
M
B. Zapelli
24'
M
47
Chiqueti
25'
M
Chiqueti
25'
M
26
Claudinho
D
Claudinho
D
63
Diogo Riquelme
M
Diogo Riquelme
M
53
Dudu
M
Dudu
M
5
Felipinho
34'
D
Felipinho
34'
D
11
Isaac
24'
F
Isaac
24'
F
16
Jádson
M
Jádson
M
3
Léo
D
Léo
D
6
Leonardo Derik
86'
D
Leonardo Derik
86'
D
21
Leozinho
F
Leozinho
F
1
Mycael
G
Mycael
G
Best on the pitch
Thiago Mendes
M · Vasco
8.70
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 69 pass
Robert Renan
D · Vasco
8.20
· 65 pass
J. Rodríguez
D · Vasco
8.00
1 👟
· 34 pass
Léo Jardim
G · Vasco
7.90
· 17 pass
Lucas Piton
D · Vasco
7.50
· 49 pass
Santos
G · Atletico
7.30
· 20 pass
Vasco DA Gama — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Léo Jardim | G | 97 | 7.90 | — | — | — | 17 | 12% | — | — | — |
| Lucas Piton | D | 91 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 49 | 39% | 4 | — | — |
| Robert Renan | D | 97 | 8.20 | — | — | — | 65 | 62% | 5 | 1 | — |
| C. Cuesta | D | 97 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 53 | 50% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Rodríguez | D | 97 | 8.00 | — | 1 | — | 34 | 28% | 1 | — | — |
| Thiago Mendes | M | 97 | 8.70 | 1 | — | 1 | 69 | 66% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Hugo Moura | M | 97 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 54 | 48% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Gómez | M | 91 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 30 | 23% | 3 | 1 | — |
| J. Rojas | M | 69 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 40 | 40% | — | 1 | — |
| Adson | M | 77 | 6.50 | — | — | 3 | 37 | 32% | 2 | — | — |
| C. Spinelli | F | 77 | 6.50 | — | — | 4 | 13 | 9% | 3 | — | — |
| Brenner | F | 20 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 6 | 6% | 2 | — | — |
| Lucas Freitas | D | 6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Nuno Moreira | M | 20 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 6 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Ramon Rique | M | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — |
| Tchê Tchê | M | 28 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 6 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
Atletico Paranaense — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santos | G | 97 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 20 | 11% | — | — | — |
| Arthur Dias | D | 97 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 46 | 44% | — | — | — |
| Juan Felipe Aguirre | D | 97 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 59 | 50% | 5 | — | — |
| Carlos Terán | D | 11 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| S. Mendoza | M | 97 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 39 | 33% | — | — | — |
| Luiz Gustavo | M | 63 | 7.00 | — | — | 2 | 30 | 26% | 1 | — | — |
| Juan Portilla | M | 97 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 48 | 41% | — | 1 | — |
| Gilberto Junior | M | 97 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 42 | 32% | 4 | — | — |
| João Cruz | F | 73 | 6.90 | — | — | 3 | 30 | 26% | 3 | — | — |
| Bruno Braga Ramos | F | 72 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 14 | 11% | 1 | — | — |
| Renan Peixoto Nepomuceno | F | 73 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 12 | 9% | — | — | — |
| B. Zapelli | M | 24 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 10 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Chiqueti | M | 25 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 6 | 2% | 1 | — | — |
| Felipinho | D | 34 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 19 | 18% | 1 | — | — |
| Isaac | F | 24 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Leonardo Derik | D | 86 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 48 | 41% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Vasco DA Gama vs Atletico Paranaense?
The final score was Vasco DA Gama 1–0 Atletico Paranaense.
What did the model predict before Vasco DA Gama vs Atletico Paranaense?
The model assigned 47% probability to a Vasco DA Gama win, 24% to a draw, and 28% to an Atletico Paranaense win.