Vasco DA Gama 3–2 Corinthians — pre-match prediction — Brasileirão Série A — October 24, 2026

← Brasileirão Série A

Brasileirão Série A · Regular Season - 32 October 24, 2026 23:30 São Januário, Rio de Janeiro

Vasco DA Gama

#13 · 41 pts

3 – 2

Final score

Corinthians

#17 · 37 pts

✓Model correct — prediction Vasco DA Gama

Jose Luis Rodriguez 35'

Marino Hinestroza 88'

Marino Hinestroza (ast. David) 90'

50' (ast. Breno Bidon) Gustavo Henrique

57' (ast. Fabrizio Angileri) Matheus Bidu

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Vasco DA Gama a 75% win probability (draw 13%, Corinthians 10%). The final result was Vasco DA Gama 3–2 Corinthians. In 3 previous meetings, Vasco DA Gama have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 2 wins for Corinthians.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

1.79

Actual xG

0.77

Saves

63%

Possession

37%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

31'

Rodrigo Garro

⚽Jose Luis Rodriguez

35'

↕ Andrés Gómez / Marino Hinestroza

37'

50'

ast. Breno Bidon · Gustavo Henrique⚽

57'

ast. Fabrizio Angileri · Matheus Bidu⚽

59'

Kaio César / Dieguinho ↕

67'

Charles / Breno Bidon ↕

67'

Allan / Rodrigo Garro ↕

↕ Santiago Sosa / Brenner

67'

↕ Bruno Duarte Da Silva / David

75'

↕ Facundo Colidio / Nuno Moreira

75'

↕ Cuiabano / Lucas Piton

75'

76'

Gui Negão / Yuri Alberto ↕

77'

Jesse Lingard / Matheus Bidu ↕

85'

Fabrizio Angileri

⚽Marino Hinestroza

88'

Marino Hinestroza

90'+2

90'+6

Jesse Lingard

⚽Marino Hinestroza · ast. David

90'

Pre-match prediction

75.28%

Vasco ←

13.72%

10.99%

Corinthians

✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Vasco DA Gama) 75.28% (high confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Vasco

2.89

1.79

-1.1

Corinthians

0.88

0.77

-0.11

Vasco DA Gama dominated by xG (1.79 vs 0.77). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Flamengo	34	76
2	Palmeiras	34	73
3	Cruzeiro	34	60
4	Fluminense	34	57
5	Atletico Paranaense	34	54
6	Bahia	34	53
7	Atletico-MG	34	50
8	RB Bragantino	34	47
9	Santos	34	47
10	Sao Paulo	34	44
11	Botafogo	34	42
12	Coritiba	34	42
13	Vasco DA Gama	33	41
14	Mirassol	34	40
15	Vitoria	34	38
16	Internacional	34	38
17	Corinthians	34	37
18	Gremio	34	37
19	Remo	34	29
20	Chapecoense-sc	33	21

Lineups

Vasco DA Gama 4-2-3-1

Léo Jardim G 6.12

Cuiabano 75' D 6.03

Robert Renan D 6.82

A. Saldivia D 6.60

J. Rodríguez 1 ⚽ D 7.36

S. Sosa 67' M 6.18

A. Lescano M 6.35

F. Colidio 75' M 6.30

Thiago Mendes M 6.78

A. Gómez 37' M 6.39

Bruno Duarte 75' F 6.73

Bench

Brenner 23' F 6.50

Daniel Fuzato G 0.00

David 1 👟 15' F 6.91

Gabriel Pereira D 0.00

Jair M 0.00

Lucas Freitas D 0.00

Lucas Piton 15' D 5.91

M. Hinestroza 2 ⚽ 53' F 9.63

Nuno Moreira 15' M 6.17

Paulo Henrique D 0.00

Ramon Rique M 0.00

Tchê Tchê M 0.00

Corinthians 4-2-3-1

Hugo Souza G 6.62

Fabrizio Angileri 1 👟 D 5.66

Gustavo Henrique 1 ⚽ D 6.89

André Ramalho D 6.37

Matheuzinho D 6.13

Breno Bidon 1 👟 67' M 6.16

André Luiz M 5.79

Matheus Bidu 1 ⚽ 77' M 7.24

R. Garro 67' M 5.59

Dieguinho 59' M 5.97

Yuri Alberto 76' F 6.47

Bench

Allan 23' M 5.83

Charles 23' M 5.89

Gui Negão 14' F 6.23

Hugo D 0.00

Iago Machado D 0.00

J. Lingard 13' M 5.53

João Pedro Tchoca D 0.00

Kaio César 31' F 6.42

Kauê Camargo G 0.00

Matheus Pereira M 0.00

Pedro Milans D 0.00

Pedro Raul F 0.00

Best on the pitch

M. Hinestroza

F · Vasco

9.63

2 ⚽

3 shots · 20 pass

J. Rodríguez

D · Vasco

7.36

1 ⚽

6 shots · 45 pass

Matheus Bidu

M · Corinthians

7.24

1 ⚽

4 shots · 14 pass

David

F · Vasco

6.91

1 👟

1 shots · 4 pass

Gustavo Henrique

D · Corinthians

6.89

1 ⚽

1 shots · 32 pass

Robert Renan

D · Vasco

6.82

3 shots · 60 pass

Vasco DA Gama — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Léo Jardim	G	90	6.12	—	—	0	28	20%	0	—	—
Cuiabano	D	75	6.03	—	—	0	38	29%	0	—	—
Robert Renan	D	90	6.82	—	—	3	60	56%	0	—	—
A. Saldivia	D	90	6.60	—	—	1	73	63%	2	—	—
J. Rodríguez	D	90	7.36	1	—	6	45	34%	2	—	—
S. Sosa	M	67	6.18	—	—	0	51	42%	0	—	—
A. Lescano	M	90	6.35	—	—	1	73	60%	3	—	—
F. Colidio	M	75	6.30	—	—	3	23	16%	0	—	—
Thiago Mendes	M	90	6.78	—	—	1	78	71%	3	—	—
A. Gómez	M	37	6.39	—	—	2	7	6%	2	—	—
Bruno Duarte	F	75	6.73	—	—	3	11	8%	0	—	—
Brenner	F	23	6.50	—	—	0	4	3%	0	—	—
David	F	15	6.91	—	1	1	4	3%	0	—	—
Lucas Piton	D	15	5.91	—	—	0	6	5%	1	—	—
M. Hinestroza	F	53	9.63	2	—	3	20	18%	3	1	—
Nuno Moreira	M	15	6.17	—	—	1	5	4%	0	—	—

Corinthians — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Hugo Souza	G	90	6.62	—	—	0	27	9%	0	—	—
Fabrizio Angileri	D	90	5.66	—	1	1	27	19%	2	1	—
Gustavo Henrique	D	90	6.89	1	—	1	32	26%	2	—	—
André Ramalho	D	90	6.37	—	—	0	20	19%	2	—	—
Matheuzinho	D	90	6.13	—	—	0	35	27%	3	—	—
Breno Bidon	M	67	6.16	—	1	0	26	17%	1	—	—
André Luiz	M	90	5.79	—	—	0	22	16%	1	—	—
Matheus Bidu	M	77	7.24	1	—	4	14	10%	0	—	—
R. Garro	M	67	5.59	—	—	2	31	20%	1	1	—
Dieguinho	M	59	5.97	—	—	0	10	10%	3	—	—
Yuri Alberto	F	76	6.47	—	—	3	23	14%	3	—	—
Allan	M	23	5.83	—	—	0	7	5%	0	—	—
Charles	M	23	5.89	—	—	0	6	3%	1	—	—
Gui Negão	F	14	6.23	—	—	0	4	2%	0	—	—
J. Lingard	M	13	5.53	—	—	0	5	4%	0	1	—
Kaio César	F	31	6.42	—	—	1	5	4%	1	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Vasco DA Gama vs Corinthians?

The final score was Vasco DA Gama 3–2 Corinthians.

What did the model predict before Vasco DA Gama vs Corinthians?

The model assigned 75% probability to a Vasco DA Gama win, 13% to a draw, and 10% to an Corinthians win.