Brasileirão Série A
· Regular Season - 8
March 22, 2026 21:00
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Vasco DA Gama a 42% win probability (draw 27%, Gremio 29%). The final result was Vasco DA Gama 2–1 Gremio.
Match statistics
5
Shots on target
3
1.48
Actual xG
0.55
37%
Possession
63%
0
Corners
2
Pre-match prediction
42.92%
Vasco ←
27.98%
X
29.1%
Gremio
we assigned to the actual result (Vasco DA Gama)
42.92%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.95
1.48
-0.47
1.11
0.55
-0.56
Vasco DA Gama dominated by xG (1.48 vs 0.55).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Vasco DA Gama vs Gremio?
The final score was Vasco DA Gama 2–1 Gremio.
What did the model predict before Vasco DA Gama vs Gremio?
The model assigned 42% probability to a Vasco DA Gama win, 27% to a draw, and 29% to an Gremio win.