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Vasco DA Gama - Independiente Medellin

Copa Sudamericana July 30, 2026 00:00
Vasco DA Gama
#2 · 10 pts
vs
Independiente Medellin
⚡ Pre-match analysis
39.08%
Win
Vasco DA Gama
28.61%
Draw
32.3%
Win
Independiente Medellin
1.63
Expected xG
1.47

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–1 (11.17%)
1X2 Result ✓ 81.8% hit rate (22 picks)
1 39%
X 29%
2 32%
Double Chance
1X 68%
X2 61%
12 71%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 80%
✓ 83.3% hit rate (66 picks)
Over 2.5 55%
✓ 66.7% hit rate (18 picks)
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Vasco DA Gama a 39% win probability, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Independiente Medellin. Expected goals are 1.6 for Vasco DA Gama and 1.5 for Independiente Medellin (total 3.1), with a 79% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 11.17% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Vasco DA Gama have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Independiente Medellin.

Season Stats

Vasco DA Gama
5W 5D 5L
Independiente Medellin
0W 1D 0L
Averages per game
1.4
Goals
2.0
1.4
Conceded
2.0
4.9
Shots OT
3.0
4.4
Corners
3.0
53%
Poss.
48%
Percentages
73%
O 1.5
100%
67%
O 2.5
100%
47%
BTTS
100%
40%
Clean Sht
0%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in Copa Sudamericana. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Score Matrix

↕ Vasco DA Gama Independiente Medellin →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 4.5% 6.6% 4.9% 2.4% 0.9% 0.3%
1 7.4% 10.8% 7.9% 3.9% 1.4% 0.4%
2 6.0% 8.8% 6.5% 3.2% 1.2% 0.3%
3 3.3% 4.8% 3.5% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2%
4 1.3% 1.9% 1.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%
5 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% —

Recent form

Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama
D Independiente Medellin 2–2
W Barracas Central 3–0
L Olimpia 3–1
W A. Italiano 1–2
W Olimpia 3–0
Home clean sheet (120 days) 29%
Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin
D Vasco DA Gama 2–2
Away clean sheet (120 days) 24%

Playing profile

Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama
Attack
37
Defence
57
Form
42
Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin
Attack
41
Defence
68
Form
59
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

0
Vasco DA Gama
1
Draw
0
Independiente Medellin
23 Jul 2026 Copa Sudamericana 2–2
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Vasco DA Gama vs Independiente Medellin?
The model gives Vasco DA Gama a 39% win probability, 28% for a draw, and 32% for an Independiente Medellin win.
How many goals are expected in Vasco DA Gama vs Independiente Medellin?
Expected goals: Vasco DA Gama 1.6, Independiente Medellin 1.5 (total 3.1). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 79%.
What is the most likely score in Vasco DA Gama vs Independiente Medellin?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 11.17%.