Copa Sudamericana
· Round of 32
July 30, 2026 00:00
Thiago Mendes
(ast. Paulo Henrique)
85'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Vasco DA Gama a 41% win probability (draw 29%, Independiente Medellin 29%). The final result was Vasco DA Gama 1–0 Independiente Medellin. In 1 previous meetings, Vasco DA Gama have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Independiente Medellin.
Match statistics
10
Total shots
4
4
Shots on target
0
1.33
Actual xG
0.24
0
Saves
3
60%
Possession
40%
3
Corners
4
13
Tackles
23
3
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
Claudio Spinelli
4'
39'
Joaquin Varela
Tchê Tchê
/ Adson
57'
Lucas Piton
/ Cuiabano
57'
59'
Yony González
/
Halam Loboa
Robert Renan
/ Alan Saldivia
60'
Claudio Spinelli
/ Brenner
66'
Ramon Rique
/ Jair
66'
Jair
69'
76'
80'
Daniel Cataño
/
John Edwin Montaño
80'
Baldomero Perlaza
/
Didier Moreno
⚽Thiago Mendes
· ast. Paulo Henrique
85'
Thiago Mendes
86'
90'+2
Keiner Klinger
90'
Keiner Klinger
/
Juan Córdoba
Pre-match prediction
41.72%
Vasco ←
29.09%
X
29.19%
Independiente
we assigned to the actual result (Vasco DA Gama)
41.72%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.79
1.33
-0.46
1.06
0.24
-0.83
Vasco DA Gama dominated by xG (1.33 vs 0.24).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Leo Jardim
G
Leo Jardim
G
6
Lucas Piton
57'
D
Lucas Piton
57'
D
30
Robert Renan
60'
D
Robert Renan
60'
D
46
C. Cuesta
D
C. Cuesta
D
96
Paulo Henrique
1 👟
D
Paulo Henrique
1 👟
D
3
Tche Tche
57'
M
Tche Tche
57'
M
23
Thiago Mendes
1 ⚽
M
Thiago Mendes
1 ⚽
M
17
N. Moreira
M
N. Moreira
M
83
Ramon Rique
66'
M
Ramon Rique
66'
M
11
A. Gómez
M
A. Gómez
M
77
C. Spinelli
66'
F
C. Spinelli
66'
F
Bench
28
Adson
41'
F
Adson
41'
F
4
A. Saldivia
38'
D
A. Saldivia
38'
D
20
Brenner
32'
F
Brenner
32'
F
66
Cuiabano
41'
D
Cuiabano
41'
D
13
Daniel Fuzato
G
Daniel Fuzato
G
7
David
F
David
F
8
Jair
32'
M
Jair
32'
M
98
JP
M
JP
M
2
J. Rodríguez
D
J. Rodríguez
D
10
J. Rojas
F
J. Rojas
F
43
Lucas Freitas
D
Lucas Freitas
D
18
M. Hinestroza
F
M. Hinestroza
F
25
Eder Chaux
G
Eder Chaux
G
13
Jhan Mena
D
Jhan Mena
D
5
Joaquin Varela
D
Joaquin Varela
D
4
Kevin Mantilla
D
Kevin Mantilla
D
26
Esneyder Mena
D
Esneyder Mena
D
6
Didier Moreno
80'
M
Didier Moreno
80'
M
16
Halam Loboa
59'
M
Halam Loboa
59'
M
20
John Edwin Montaño
80'
M
John Edwin Montaño
80'
M
21
Agustín Martegani
M
Agustín Martegani
M
70
J. Córdoba
M
J. Córdoba
M
9
Jeison Medina
F
Jeison Medina
F
Bench
19
Alfonso Simarra
D
Alfonso Simarra
D
14
Baldomero Perlaza
18'
M
Baldomero Perlaza
18'
M
10
Daniel Cataño
18'
M
Daniel Cataño
18'
M
31
Diego Moreno
M
Diego Moreno
M
30
H. Palacios
D
H. Palacios
D
34
Keiner Klinger
8'
M
Keiner Klinger
8'
M
39
Luis Escorcia
D
Luis Escorcia
D
1
Salvador Ichazo
G
Salvador Ichazo
G
12
Simón Romero
G
Simón Romero
G
11
Yony González
39'
F
Yony González
39'
F
Best on the pitch
Paulo Henrique
D · Vasco
8.30
1 👟
· 44 pass
Thiago Mendes
M · Vasco
8.20
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 61 pass
Robert Renan
D · Vasco
7.50
· 49 pass
Esneyder Mena
D · Independiente
7.50
· 24 pass
Eder Chaux
G · Independiente
7.50
· 20 pass
Ramon Rique
M · Vasco
7.20
2 shots
· 18 pass
Vasco DA Gama — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo Jardim | G | 98 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 19 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Lucas Piton | D | 57 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 31 | 25% | — | — | — |
| Robert Renan | D | 60 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 49 | 41% | 1 | — | — |
| C. Cuesta | D | 98 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 67 | 60% | 1 | — | — |
| Paulo Henrique | D | 98 | 8.30 | — | 1 | — | 44 | 30% | 3 | — | — |
| Tche Tche | M | 57 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 32 | 30% | 2 | — | — |
| Thiago Mendes | M | 98 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 61 | 54% | — | 1 | — |
| N. Moreira | M | 98 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 27 | 21% | — | — | — |
| Ramon Rique | M | 66 | 7.20 | — | — | 2 | 18 | 14% | 3 | — | — |
| A. Gómez | M | 98 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 21 | 16% | 3 | — | — |
| C. Spinelli | F | 66 | 6.30 | — | — | 3 | 10 | 7% | — | 1 | — |
| Adson | F | 41 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 18 | 16% | — | — | — |
| A. Saldivia | D | 38 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 10 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Brenner | F | 32 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Cuiabano | D | 41 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 15 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Jair | M | 32 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 15 | 14% | — | 1 | — |
Independiente Medellin — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eder Chaux | G | 98 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 20 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Jhan Mena | D | 98 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 17 | 14% | 3 | — | — |
| Joaquin Varela | D | 98 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 34 | 27% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Kevin Mantilla | D | 98 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 39 | 33% | 3 | — | — |
| Esneyder Mena | D | 98 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 24 | 18% | 6 | — | — |
| Didier Moreno | M | 80 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 34 | 27% | 1 | — | — |
| Halam Loboa | M | 59 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 24 | 20% | 2 | — | — |
| John Edwin Montaño | M | 80 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 8 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
| Agustín Martegani | M | 98 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 25 | 18% | 3 | — | — |
| J. Córdoba | M | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 26 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| Jeison Medina | F | 98 | 6.00 | — | — | 1 | 20 | 11% | — | — | — |
| Baldomero Perlaza | M | 18 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | 1 | — | — |
| Daniel Cataño | M | 18 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Keiner Klinger | M | 8 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 5 | 3% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Yony González | F | 39 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 11 | 8% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Vasco DA Gama vs Independiente Medellin?
The final score was Vasco DA Gama 1–0 Independiente Medellin.
What did the model predict before Vasco DA Gama vs Independiente Medellin?
The model assigned 41% probability to a Vasco DA Gama win, 29% to a draw, and 29% to an Independiente Medellin win.