Copa Sudamericana
· Round of 32
July 30, 2026 00:00
Thiago Mendes
(ast. Paulo Henrique)
85'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Vasco DA Gama a 41% win probability (draw 29%, Independiente Medellin 29%). The final result was Vasco DA Gama 1–0 Independiente Medellin. In 1 previous meetings, Vasco DA Gama have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Independiente Medellin.
Match statistics
10
Total shots
4
4
Shots on target
0
1.33
Actual xG
0.24
0
Saves
3
60%
Possession
40%
3
Corners
4
13
Tackles
23
3
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
Claudio Spinelli
4'
39'
Joaquin Varela
Tchê Tchê
/ Adson
57'
Lucas Piton
/ Cuiabano
57'
59'
Yony González
/
Halam Loboa
Robert Renan
/ Alan Saldivia
60'
Claudio Spinelli
/ Brenner
66'
Ramon Rique
/ Jair
66'
Jair
69'
76'
80'
Daniel Cataño
/
John Edwin Montaño
80'
Baldomero Perlaza
/
Didier Moreno
⚽Thiago Mendes
· ast. Paulo Henrique
85'
Thiago Mendes
86'
90'+2
Keiner Klinger
90'
Keiner Klinger
/
Juan Córdoba
Pre-match prediction
41.72%
Vasco ←
29.09%
X
29.19%
Independiente
we assigned to the actual result (Vasco DA Gama)
41.72%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.79
1.33
-0.46
1.06
0.24
-0.83
Vasco DA Gama dominated by xG (1.33 vs 0.24).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Léo Jardim
G
Léo Jardim
G
6
Lucas Piton
57'
D
Lucas Piton
57'
D
30
Robert Renan
60'
D
Robert Renan
60'
D
46
C. Cuesta
D
C. Cuesta
D
96
Paulo Henrique
1 👟
D
Paulo Henrique
1 👟
D
3
Tchê Tchê
57'
M
Tchê Tchê
57'
M
23
Thiago Mendes
1 ⚽
M
Thiago Mendes
1 ⚽
M
17
Nuno Moreira
M
Nuno Moreira
M
83
Ramon Rique
66'
M
Ramon Rique
66'
M
11
A. Gómez
M
A. Gómez
M
77
C. Spinelli
66'
F
C. Spinelli
66'
F
Bench
28
Adson
41'
F
Adson
41'
F
4
A. Saldivia
38'
D
A. Saldivia
38'
D
20
Brenner
32'
F
Brenner
32'
F
66
Cuiabano
41'
D
Cuiabano
41'
D
13
Daniel Fuzato
G
Daniel Fuzato
G
7
David
F
David
F
8
Jair
32'
M
Jair
32'
M
98
JP
M
JP
M
2
J. Rodríguez
D
J. Rodríguez
D
10
J. Rojas
F
J. Rojas
F
43
Lucas Freitas
D
Lucas Freitas
D
18
M. Hinestroza
F
M. Hinestroza
F
25
E. Chaux
G
E. Chaux
G
13
J. Mena
D
J. Mena
D
5
J. Varela
D
J. Varela
D
4
K. Mantilla
D
K. Mantilla
D
26
E. Mena
D
E. Mena
D
6
D. Moreno
80'
M
D. Moreno
80'
M
16
H. Loboa
59'
M
H. Loboa
59'
M
20
J. Montaño
80'
M
J. Montaño
80'
M
21
A. Martegani
M
A. Martegani
M
70
Juan Córdoba
M
Juan Córdoba
M
9
J. Medina
F
J. Medina
F
Bench
19
A. Simarra
D
A. Simarra
D
14
B. Perlaza
18'
M
B. Perlaza
18'
M
10
Daniel Cataño
18'
M
Daniel Cataño
18'
M
31
D. Moreno
M
D. Moreno
M
30
H. Palacios
D
H. Palacios
D
34
K. Klinger
8'
M
K. Klinger
8'
M
39
L. Escorcia
D
L. Escorcia
D
1
S. Ichazo
G
S. Ichazo
G
12
Simón Romero
G
Simón Romero
G
11
Y. González
39'
F
Y. González
39'
F
Best on the pitch
Paulo Henrique
D · Vasco
8.30
1 👟
· 44 pass
Thiago Mendes
M · Vasco
8.20
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 61 pass
Robert Renan
D · Vasco
7.50
· 49 pass
E. Mena
D · Independiente
7.50
· 24 pass
E. Chaux
G · Independiente
7.50
· 20 pass
Ramon Rique
M · Vasco
7.20
2 shots
· 18 pass
Vasco DA Gama — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Léo Jardim | G | 98 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 19 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Lucas Piton | D | 57 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 31 | 25% | — | — | — |
| Robert Renan | D | 60 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 49 | 41% | 1 | — | — |
| C. Cuesta | D | 98 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 67 | 60% | 1 | — | — |
| Paulo Henrique | D | 98 | 8.30 | — | 1 | — | 44 | 30% | 3 | — | — |
| Tchê Tchê | M | 57 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 32 | 30% | 2 | — | — |
| Thiago Mendes | M | 98 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 61 | 54% | — | 1 | — |
| Nuno Moreira | M | 98 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 27 | 21% | — | — | — |
| Ramon Rique | M | 66 | 7.20 | — | — | 2 | 18 | 14% | 3 | — | — |
| A. Gómez | M | 98 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 21 | 16% | 3 | — | — |
| C. Spinelli | F | 66 | 6.30 | — | — | 3 | 10 | 7% | — | 1 | — |
| Adson | F | 41 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 18 | 16% | — | — | — |
| A. Saldivia | D | 38 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 10 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Brenner | F | 32 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Cuiabano | D | 41 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 15 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Jair | M | 32 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 15 | 14% | — | 1 | — |
Independiente Medellin — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Chaux | G | 98 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 20 | 13% | — | — | — |
| J. Mena | D | 98 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 17 | 14% | 3 | — | — |
| J. Varela | D | 98 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 34 | 27% | 1 | 1 | — |
| K. Mantilla | D | 98 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 39 | 33% | 3 | — | — |
| E. Mena | D | 98 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 24 | 18% | 6 | — | — |
| D. Moreno | M | 80 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 34 | 27% | 1 | — | — |
| H. Loboa | M | 59 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 24 | 20% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Montaño | M | 80 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 8 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Martegani | M | 98 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 25 | 18% | 3 | — | — |
| Juan Córdoba | M | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 26 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Medina | F | 98 | 6.00 | — | — | 1 | 20 | 11% | — | — | — |
| B. Perlaza | M | 18 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | 1 | — | — |
| Daniel Cataño | M | 18 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | — | — | — |
| K. Klinger | M | 8 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 5 | 3% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Y. González | F | 39 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 11 | 8% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Vasco DA Gama vs Independiente Medellin?
The final score was Vasco DA Gama 1–0 Independiente Medellin.
What did the model predict before Vasco DA Gama vs Independiente Medellin?
The model assigned 41% probability to a Vasco DA Gama win, 29% to a draw, and 29% to an Independiente Medellin win.