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Velez Sarsfield - San Lorenzo

Liga Profesional October 31, 2026 23:15 Jose Amalfitani, Buenos Aires
Velez Sarsfield
#2 · 27 pts
vs
San Lorenzo
#7 · 22 pts
Weather at kick-off ☀️ Clear sky 16.8°C 💨 9 km/h · Buenos Aires
⚡ Pre-match analysis
68.23%
Win
Velez Sarsfield
17.2%
Draw
14.56%
Win
San Lorenzo
2.46
Expected xG
0.92
Most likely outcome
Velez Sarsfield
68.23%
Probability
70.8%
1X2 accuracy · 48 predictions (3 months)

Market probabilities

Most likely result 2–0 (10.36%)
1X2 Result ✓ 70.8% hit rate (48 picks)
1 68%
X 17%
2 15%
Double Chance ✓ 91.7% hit rate (48 picks)
1X 85%
X2 32%
12 83%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 73%
Over 2.5 49%
✓ 54.0% hit rate (50 picks)
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Velez Sarsfield a 68% win probability, against 17% for a draw and 14% for San Lorenzo. Expected goals are 2.5 for Velez Sarsfield and 0.9 for San Lorenzo (total 3.4), with a 72% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2–0 at 10.36% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Velez Sarsfield have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for San Lorenzo.

Season Stats

Velez Sarsfield
7W 6D 2L
San Lorenzo
5W 4D 6L
Averages per game
1.5
Goals
0.5
0.9
Conceded
0.9
4.7
Shots OT
3.7
5.3
Corners
4.0
53%
Poss.
48%
Percentages
67%
O 1.5
40%
33%
O 2.5
13%
53%
BTTS
20%
33%
Clean Sht
40%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in Liga Profesional. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
15%
O 3.5
40%
BTTS
Velez Sarsfield
5W 4D 1L · at home
San Lorenzo
2W 4D 4L · away
1.3
gls/g
0.5
0.9
Conceded
0.9
50%
Win %
20%
90%
Win or Draw
60%
50%
O 1.5
40%
30%
O 2.5
20%
30%
O 3.5
0%
50%
BTTS
30%
40%
Clean Sht
30%
10%
Failed to Score
60%
last 10
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Velez Sarsfield San Lorenzo →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 3.4% 3.1% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% —
1 8.4% 7.7% 3.5% 1.1% 0.2% —
2 10.3% 9.5% 4.4% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%
3 8.5% 7.8% 3.6% 1.1% 0.3% —
4 5.2% 4.8% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2% —
5 2.6% 2.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% —

Recent form

Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield
W Central Cordoba de Santiago 0–5
W Gimnasia M. 1–0
L Lanus 2–0
D Platense 2–2
W Tigre 3–2
Home clean sheet (120 days) 47%
San Lorenzo San Lorenzo
D Newells Old Boys 0–0
W Estudiantes L.P. 1–2
W Deportivo Riestra 1–0
L Defensa Y Justicia 3–0
L Boca Juniors 0–2
Away clean sheet (120 days) 20%

Playing profile

Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield
Attack
48
Defence
65
Form
63
San Lorenzo San Lorenzo
Attack
26
Defence
63
Form
48
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

0
Velez Sarsfield
1
Draw
0
San Lorenzo
21 Apr 2026 Liga Profesional 0–0

Clausura - Group A

# Team G Pts
1 Instituto Cordoba Instituto Cordoba 14 32
2 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 14 27
3 Boca Juniors Boca Juniors 14 27
4 Defensa Y Justicia Defensa Y Justicia 14 27
5 Lanus Lanus 14 24
6 Newells Old Boys Newells Old Boys 14 21
7 Gimnasia M. Gimnasia M. 14 20
8 Independiente Independiente 14 19
9 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo 14 18
10 Union Santa Fe Union Santa Fe 14 17
11 Estudiantes L.P. Estudiantes L.P. 14 14
12 Platense Platense 14 14
13 Deportivo Riestra Deportivo Riestra 14 12
14 Central Cordoba de Santiago Central Cordoba de Santiago 14 10
15 Talleres Cordoba Talleres Cordoba 14 9

What's at stake · Clausura - Group A

Top 2 advance to the next round

Velez Sarsfield San Lorenzo
Current #2 #1
→ Velez Sarsfield #2 #9
→ Draw #2 #9
→ San Lorenzo #2 #7

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Velez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo?
The model gives Velez Sarsfield a 68% win probability, 17% for a draw, and 14% for an San Lorenzo win.
How many goals are expected in Velez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo?
Expected goals: Velez Sarsfield 2.5, San Lorenzo 0.9 (total 3.4). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 72%.
What is the most likely score in Velez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo?
2–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 10.36%.