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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 29 April 12, 2026 17:30 MHPArena, Stuttgart
VfB Stuttgart
#15 · 6 pts
4 – 0
Final score
Hamburger SV
#11 · 9 pts
✓Model correct — prediction VfB Stuttgart
A. Stiller (ast. J. Leweling) 21'
C. Fuhrich (ast. E. Demirovic) 32'
M. Mittelstadt (ast. C. Fuhrich) 56'
B. El Khannouss (ast. T. Tomas) 86'
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave VfB Stuttgart a 71% win probability (draw 15%, Hamburger SV 12%). The final result was VfB Stuttgart 4–0 Hamburger SV. In 2 previous meetings, VfB Stuttgart have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 2 wins for Hamburger SV.

Match statistics
16
Total shots
8
11
Shots on target
5
3.64
Actual xG
0.61
4
Saves
7
65%
Possession
35%
8
Corners
2
14
Tackles
13
2
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
⚽A. Stiller · ast. J. Leweling
21'
Chema Andrés
24'
⚽C. Fuhrich · ast. E. Demirovic
32'
⚽M. Mittelstadt · ast. C. Fuhrich
56'
60'
O. Stange / R. Philippe ↕
60'
R. Glatzel / A. Gronbaek ↕
67'
↕ C. Andres / N. Nartey
70'
↕ E. Demirovic / T. Tomas
70'
↕ C. Fuhrich / B. El Khannouss
70'
72'
G. Gocholeishvili / F. Balde ↕
72'
N. Capaldo / D. Elfadli ↕
Deniz Undav
80'
80'
Nicolás Capaldo
81'
⚽B. El Khannouss · ast. T. Tomas
86'
↕ L. Assignon / J. Vagnoman
88'
↕ D. Undav / Jeremy Arevalo
88'
Pre-match prediction
71.41%
VfB ←
15.67%
X
12.93%
Hamburger
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (VfB Stuttgart) 71.41% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
VfB
2.78
3.64
+0.86
Hamburger
1.14
0.61
-0.53
VfB Stuttgart dominated by xG (3.64 vs 0.61). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Bayern München Bayern München 7 17
2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 7 17
3 SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 7 13
4 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 7 13
5 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 7 12
6 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 7 12
7 FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 7 10
8 SV Elversberg SV Elversberg 7 10
9 FC Augsburg FC Augsburg 7 9
10 1899 Hoffenheim 1899 Hoffenheim 7 9
11 Hamburger SV Hamburger SV 7 9
12 1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln 7 8
13 SC Paderborn 07 SC Paderborn 07 7 8
14 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt 7 8
15 VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart 7 6
16 FC Schalke 04 FC Schalke 04 7 6
17 Union Berlin Union Berlin 7 6
18 Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Mönchengladbach 7 3
Lineups
VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart 4-2-3-1
33
G 7.30
7 M. Mittelstädt M. Mittelstädt 1 ⚽ D 9.90
24 J. Chabot J. Chabot D 8.20
3 R. Hendriks R. Hendriks D 7.50
22 L. Assignon L. Assignon 88' D 6.90
6 A. Stiller A. Stiller 1 ⚽ M 7.90
30 José María Andrés Baixauli José María Andrés Baixauli 70' M 7.20
10 C. Führich C. Führich 1 ⚽ 1 👟 70' M 8.90
26 D. Undav D. Undav 88' M 7.20
18 J. Leweling J. Leweling 1 👟 M 7.30
9 E. Demirović E. Demirović 1 👟 70' F 6.90
Bench
11 B. El Khannouss B. El Khannouss 1 ⚽ 20' M 8.20
23 Dan Zagadou Dan Zagadou D
29 Finn Jeltsch Finn Jeltsch D
25 Jeremy Arevalo Jeremy Arevalo 2' F
4 J. Vagnoman J. Vagnoman 2' D
28 N. Nartey N. Nartey 20' M 7.00
8 Tiago Tomás Tiago Tomás 1 👟 20' F 7.30
Hamburger SV Hamburger SV 3-4-1-2
1
G 6.60
8 Daniel Elfadli Daniel Elfadli 72' D 6.30
25 J. Torunarigha J. Torunarigha D 6.70
17 W. Omari W. Omari D 5.90
45 Fabio Amadu Uri Baldé Fabio Amadu Uri Baldé 72' M 6.50
21 N. Remberg N. Remberg M 6.20
23 A. Grønbæk A. Grønbæk 60' M 6.30
2 W. Mikelbrencis W. Mikelbrencis M 6.50
20 Fábio Vieira Fábio Vieira F 7.00
14 R. Philippe R. Philippe 60' F 6.50
11 R. Königsdörffer R. Königsdörffer F 6.50
Bench
24 N. Capaldo N. Capaldo 18' M 6.50
27 P. Otele P. Otele F
9 R. Glatzel R. Glatzel 30' F 6.20
Best on the pitch
M. Mittelstädt
M. Mittelstädt
D · VfB
9.90
1 ⚽
3 shots · 63 pass
C. Führich
C. Führich
M · VfB
8.90
1 ⚽ 1 👟
4 shots · 34 pass
J. Chabot
J. Chabot
D · VfB
8.20
1 shots · 73 pass
B. El Khannouss
B. El Khannouss
M · VfB
8.20
1 ⚽
1 shots · 12 pass
A. Stiller
A. Stiller
M · VfB
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots · 78 pass
R. Hendriks
R. Hendriks
D · VfB
7.50
· 58 pass
VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 7.30 — — — 34 21% — — —
M. Mittelstädt D 90 9.90 1 — 3 63 55% 4 — —
J. Chabot D 90 8.20 — — 1 73 67% 2 — —
R. Hendriks D 90 7.50 — — — 58 52% 1 — —
L. Assignon D 88 6.90 — — — 41 35% 1 — —
A. Stiller M 90 7.90 1 — 1 78 70% 2 — —
José María Andrés Baixauli M 70 7.20 — — 1 35 29% — 1 —
C. Führich M 70 8.90 1 1 4 34 28% 1 — —
D. Undav M 88 7.20 — — 4 39 29% — 1 —
J. Leweling M 90 7.30 — 1 — 26 23% — — —
E. Demirović F 70 6.90 — 1 1 16 14% — — —
B. El Khannouss M 20 8.20 1 — 1 12 10% 1 — —
Jeremy Arevalo F 2 — — — — 4 2% — — —
J. Vagnoman D 2 — — — — 5 3% 1 — —
N. Nartey M 20 7.00 — — — 16 15% — — —
Tiago Tomás F 20 7.30 — 1 — 5 5% 1 — —
Hamburger SV Hamburger SV — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 6.60 — — — 57 33% — — —
Daniel Elfadli D 72 6.30 — — — 22 19% 2 — —
J. Torunarigha D 90 6.70 — — — 25 19% 1 — —
W. Omari D 90 5.90 — — — 31 25% 1 — —
Fabio Amadu Uri Baldé M 72 6.50 — — 1 17 14% 2 — —
N. Remberg M 90 6.20 — — — 38 29% — — —
A. Grønbæk M 60 6.30 — — — 15 11% 1 — —
W. Mikelbrencis M 90 6.50 — — — 19 14% 4 — —
Fábio Vieira F 90 7.00 — — 1 28 27% — — —
R. Philippe F 60 6.50 — — 1 5 2% 2 — —
R. Königsdörffer F 90 6.50 — — 4 13 9% — — —
N. Capaldo M 18 6.50 — — — 7 7% — 1 —
R. Glatzel F 30 6.20 — — 1 4 1% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of VfB Stuttgart vs Hamburger SV?
The final score was VfB Stuttgart 4–0 Hamburger SV.
What did the model predict before VfB Stuttgart vs Hamburger SV?
The model assigned 71% probability to a VfB Stuttgart win, 15% to a draw, and 12% to an Hamburger SV win.