✓Model correct — prediction Bayern München
56'
(ast. K. Laimer)
M. Olise
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Bayern München a 71% win probability (draw 14%, VfL Wolfsburg 14%). The final result was VfL Wolfsburg 0–1 Bayern München. In 1 previous meetings, VfL Wolfsburg have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Bayern München.
Match statistics
11
Total shots
14
5
Shots on target
9
3.05
Actual xG
1.85
8
Saves
5
31%
Possession
69%
6
Corners
3
22
Tackles
22
1
🟨 Yellow cards
0
Match Events
36'
(missed pen.)
H. Kane⚽
46'
D. Upamecano
/
Kim Min-Jae
46'
K. Laimer
/
L. Goretzka
56'
ast. K. Laimer ·
M. Olise⚽
58'
L. Diaz
/
N. Jackson
C. Eriksen
/ M. Svanberg
66'
P. Wimmer
/ L. Majer
66'
Vini Souza
/ Y. Gerhardt
74'
A. Daghim
/ K. Shiogai
74'
76'
L. Karl
/
J. Musiala
84'
J. Tah
/
H. Ito
K. Shiogai
90'+1
S. Kumbedi
/ J. Lindstrom
90'
Pre-match prediction
14.55%
VfL
14.13%
X
71.32%
Bayern ←
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Bayern München)
71.32%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.54
3.05
+1.51
3.54
1.85
-1.69
VfL Wolfsburg dominated by xG (3.05 vs 1.85).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
G
4
K. Koulierakis
D
K. Koulierakis
D
3
D. Vavro
D
D. Vavro
D
6
J. Belocian
D
J. Belocian
D
21
J. Mæhle
M
J. Mæhle
M
24
C. Eriksen
67'
M
C. Eriksen
67'
M
5
Vinicius Souza
74'
M
Vinicius Souza
74'
M
39
P. Wimmer
67'
M
P. Wimmer
67'
M
26
S. Kumbedi
M
S. Kumbedi
M
17
D. Pejčinović
F
D. Pejčinović
F
11
A. Daghim
74'
F
A. Daghim
74'
F
Bench
25
A. Zehnter
D
A. Zehnter
D
18
J. Adjetey
D
J. Adjetey
D
19
J. Lindstrøm
5'
M
J. Lindstrøm
5'
M
7
K. Shiogai
21'
F
K. Shiogai
21'
F
10
L. Majer
28'
M
L. Majer
28'
M
32
M. Svanberg
28'
M
M. Svanberg
28'
M
40
G
20
T. Bischof
D
T. Bischof
D
21
H. Ito
84'
D
H. Ito
84'
D
3
Kim Min-Jae
45'
D
Kim Min-Jae
45'
D
44
J. Stanišić
D
J. Stanišić
D
8
L. Goretzka
45'
M
L. Goretzka
45'
M
6
J. Kimmich
M
J. Kimmich
M
11
N. Jackson
60'
M
N. Jackson
60'
M
10
J. Musiala
76'
M
J. Musiala
76'
M
17
M. Olise
1 ⚽
M
M. Olise
1 ⚽
M
9
H. Kane
F
H. Kane
F
Bench
45
A. Pavlović
M
A. Pavlović
M
39
Bara Ndiaye
F
Bara Ndiaye
F
2
D. Upamecano
50'
D
D. Upamecano
50'
D
4
J. Tah
11'
D
J. Tah
11'
D
27
K. Laimer
1 👟
50'
M
K. Laimer
1 👟
50'
M
14
L. Díaz
35'
F
L. Díaz
35'
F
42
L. Karl
19'
M
L. Karl
19'
M
1
M. Neuer
G
M. Neuer
G
22
Raphaël Guerreiro
D
Raphaël Guerreiro
D
Best on the pitch
G · VfL
8.70
· 27 pass
M. Olise
M · Bayern
8.70
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 81 pass
Kim Min-Jae
D · Bayern
8.30
· 55 pass
J. Kimmich
M · Bayern
8.20
· 114 pass
G · Bayern
7.60
· 34 pass
J. Belocian
D · VfL
7.50
· 31 pass
VfL Wolfsburg — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 95 | 8.70 | — | — | — | 27 | 15% | — | — | — | |
| K. Koulierakis | D | 95 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 34 | 28% | — | — | — |
| D. Vavro | D | 95 | 7.30 | — | — | 2 | 27 | 25% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Belocian | D | 95 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 31 | 28% | 5 | — | — |
| J. Mæhle | M | 95 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 33 | 26% | 3 | — | — |
| C. Eriksen | M | 67 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 25 | 17% | 2 | — | — |
| Vinicius Souza | M | 74 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 36 | 30% | 3 | — | — |
| P. Wimmer | M | 67 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 17 | 15% | 2 | — | — |
| S. Kumbedi | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 27 | 19% | 3 | — | — |
| D. Pejčinović | F | 95 | 6.30 | — | — | 4 | 31 | 22% | — | — | — |
| A. Daghim | F | 74 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 16 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Lindstrøm | M | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Shiogai | F | 21 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 5 | 3% | — | 1 | — |
| L. Majer | M | 28 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 7 | 3% | 2 | — | — |
| M. Svanberg | M | 28 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 9 | 6% | — | — | — |
Bayern München — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 95 | 7.60 | — | — | — | 34 | 27% | — | — | — | |
| T. Bischof | D | 95 | 7.30 | — | — | 2 | 87 | 82% | 5 | — | — |
| H. Ito | D | 84 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 64 | 60% | 1 | — | — |
| Kim Min-Jae | D | 45 | 8.30 | — | — | — | 55 | 53% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Stanišić | D | 95 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 73 | 67% | 2 | — | — |
| L. Goretzka | M | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 36 | 31% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Kimmich | M | 95 | 8.20 | — | — | — | 114 | 109% | 2 | — | — |
| N. Jackson | M | 60 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 25 | 19% | — | — | — |
| J. Musiala | M | 76 | 6.20 | — | — | 3 | 32 | 28% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Olise | M | 95 | 8.70 | 1 | — | 3 | 81 | 69% | — | — | — |
| H. Kane | F | 95 | 5.90 | — | — | 2 | 26 | 20% | 1 | — | — |
| D. Upamecano | D | 50 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 47 | 44% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Tah | D | 11 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 7 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
| K. Laimer | M | 50 | 6.90 | — | 1 | — | 53 | 44% | 3 | — | — |
| L. Díaz | F | 35 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 24 | 19% | — | — | — |
| L. Karl | M | 19 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 12 | 10% | 2 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayern München?
The final score was VfL Wolfsburg 0–1 Bayern München.
What did the model predict before VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayern München?
The model assigned 14% probability to a VfL Wolfsburg win, 14% to a draw, and 71% to an Bayern München win.