Brasileirão Série B
· Regular Season - 14
June 21, 2026 00:00
Janderson
(ast. Dodo)
4'
Andre Luis
(ast. Ryan)
8'
Janderson
(ast. Andre Luis)
18'
Ryan
42'
36'
Dodo
65'
Vinicius
90'+1
(ast. Dodo)
Luiz Claudio
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Vila Nova a 43% win probability (draw 23%, Nautico Recife 32%). The final result was Vila Nova 4–3 Nautico Recife.
Match statistics
6
Shots on target
7
1.54
Actual xG
2.22
33%
Possession
67%
2
Corners
10
Match Events
⚽Janderson
· ast. Dodo
4'
⚽Andre Luis
· ast. Ryan
8'
16'
Mateus Silva
⚽Janderson
· ast. Andre Luis
18'
29'
Matheus Ribeiro
/
Mateus Silva
29'
Luiz Claudio
/
Leonai Souza
Tiago Pagnussat
34'
36'
Dodo⚽
⚽Ryan
42'
45'
Luiz Felipe
46'
Arnaldo
/
Reginaldo
62'
Leo Jance
/
Arnaldo
65'
Vinicius⚽
Dodo
/ Dudu
66'
Andre Luis
/ Dellatorre
76'
Ryan
/ Hayner
76'
78'
Felipe Cardoso
/
Victor Andrade
Janderson
/ Emerson Urso
85'
Joao Vieira
/ Enzo Bizzotto
85'
90'+1
ast. Dodo ·
Luiz Claudio⚽
Emerson Urso
90'+6
Pre-match prediction
43.88%
Vila ←
23.87%
X
32.25%
Nautico
we assigned to the actual result (Vila Nova)
43.88%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.06
1.54
-0.52
1.81
2.22
+0.41
Nautico Recife dominated by xG (2.22 vs 1.54).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Vila Nova vs Nautico Recife?
The final score was Vila Nova 4–3 Nautico Recife.
What did the model predict before Vila Nova vs Nautico Recife?
The model assigned 43% probability to a Vila Nova win, 23% to a draw, and 32% to an Nautico Recife win.