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Vitória de Sernache - Lusitânia Lourosa

Taça de Portugal November 21, 2026 16:00
Vitória de Sernache
vs
Lusitânia Lourosa
⚡ Pre-match analysis
29.28%
Win
Vitória de Sernache
33.3%
Draw
37.43%
Win
Lusitânia Lourosa
0.7
Expected xG
0.93

Market probabilities

Most likely result 0–1 (15.85%)
1X2 Result
1 29%
X 33%
2 37%
Double Chance
1X 63%
X2 71%
12 67%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 63%
Over 2.5 32%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Lusitânia Lourosa a 37% win probability, against 33% for a draw and 29% for Vitória de Sernache. Expected goals are 0.7 for Vitória de Sernache and 0.9 for Lusitânia Lourosa (total 1.6), with a 62% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 0–1 at 15.85% probability.

Season Stats

Vitória de Sernache
3W 0D 1L
Lusitânia Lourosa
4W 0D 1L
Averages per game
1.8
Goals
2.4
0.8
Conceded
0.6
Percentages
75%
O 1.5
80%
75%
O 2.5
60%
50%
BTTS
40%
50%
Clean Sht
40%
ℹ Based on the last 5 matches in Taça de Portugal. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
50%
O 3.5
75%
BTTS
Vitória de Sernache
1W 0D 1L · at home
Lusitânia Lourosa
2W 0D 0L · away
1.5
gls/g
4.0
1.5
Conceded
0.5
50%
Win %
100%
50%
Win or Draw
100%
100%
O 1.5
100%
100%
O 2.5
100%
0%
O 3.5
100%
100%
BTTS
50%
0%
Clean Sht
50%
0%
Failed to Score
0%
last 2
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Vitória de Sernache Lusitânia Lourosa →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 19.6% 18.2% 8.5% 2.6% 0.6% 0.1%
1 13.7% 12.8% 5.9% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1%
2 4.8% 4.5% 2.1% 0.6% 0.2% —
3 1.1% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% — —
4 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% — — —
5 — — — — — —

Recent form

Vitória de Sernache Vitória de Sernache
W Brito 0–1
W Varzim 2–1
W Nazarenos 0–3
L Portimonense 1–2
Home clean sheet (120 days) 36%
Lusitânia Lourosa Lusitânia Lourosa
W Os Limianos 2–1
W Madalena 1–3
L Torreense 0–1
W Resende 2–0
W Castrense 0–5
Away clean sheet (120 days) 36%

Playing profile

Vitória de Sernache Vitória de Sernache
Attack
33
Defence
67
Form
58
Lusitânia Lourosa Lusitânia Lourosa
Attack
53
Defence
63
Form
69
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Vitória de Sernache vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
The model gives Vitória de Sernache a 29% win probability, 33% for a draw, and 37% for an Lusitânia Lourosa win.
How many goals are expected in Vitória de Sernache vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
Expected goals: Vitória de Sernache 0.7, Lusitânia Lourosa 0.9 (total 1.6). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 62%.
What is the most likely score in Vitória de Sernache vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
0–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 15.85%.