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← Brasileirão Série D

Vitória ES - Ipatinga

Brasileirão Série D June 20, 2026 20:00
Vitória ES
#3 · 14 pts
vs
Ipatinga
#2 · 15 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
42.09%
Win
Vitória ES
26.3%
Draw
31.61%
Win
Ipatinga
1.68
Expected xG
1.34
Most likely result 1–1 (11.0%)
2+ goals
70%
3+ goals
58%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Vitória ES a 42% win probability, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Ipatinga. Expected goals are 1.7 for Vitória ES and 1.3 for Ipatinga (total 3.0), with a 69% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 11.0% probability.

Season Stats

Vitória ES
4W 3D 3L
Ipatinga
4W 3D 3L
Averages per game
1.2
Goals
1.2
0.8
Conceded
0.9
Percentages
70%
O 1.5
70%
40%
O 2.5
40%
40%
BTTS
50%
40%
Clean Sht
30%
ℹ Based on the last 10 matches in Brasileirão Série D. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
80%
O 1.5
50%
O 2.5
10%
O 3.5
70%
BTTS
Vitória ES
2W 1D 2L · at home
Ipatinga
1W 2D 2L · away
1.4
gls/g
1.2
1.0
Conceded
1.2
40%
Win %
20%
60%
Win or Draw
60%
80%
O 1.5
80%
60%
O 2.5
40%
0%
O 3.5
20%
60%
BTTS
80%
20%
Clean Sht
0%
20%
Failed to Score
20%
last 5
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Vitória ES Ipatinga →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 4.9% 6.6% 4.4% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2%
1 8.2% 11.0% 7.4% 3.3% 1.1% 0.3%
2 6.9% 9.2% 6.2% 2.8% 0.9% 0.2%
3 3.8% 5.1% 3.4% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1%
4 1.6% 2.2% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% —

Recent form

Vitória ES Vitória ES
D Tombense 0–0
D Real Noroeste 1–1
W Rio Branco ES 0–2
D Porto BA 0–0
W Democrata GV 2–1
Home clean sheet (120 days) 24%
Ipatinga Ipatinga
W Operario Ferroviario 2–1
L ABECAT Ouvidorense 2–1
W Ivinhema 3–0
D Uberlandia 1–1
D CRAC 0–0
Away clean sheet (120 days) 15%

Playing profile

Vitória ES Vitória ES
Attack
27
Defence
82
Form
57
Ipatinga Ipatinga
Attack
32
Defence
75
Form
54
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Brasileiro Serie D 2026, Group A12

# Team G Pts
1 Democrata GV Democrata GV 9 16
2 Tombense Tombense 9 16
3 Vitória ES Vitória ES 9 14
4 Rio Branco ES Rio Branco ES 9 10
5 Porto BA Porto BA 9 10
6 Real Noroeste Real Noroeste 9 7

What's at stake · Brasileiro Serie D 2026, Group A12

Top 2 advance to the next round

Vitória ES Ipatinga
Current #3 #1
→ Vitória ES #1 #1
→ Draw #3 #1
→ Ipatinga #3 #1

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Vitória ES vs Ipatinga?
The model gives Vitória ES a 42% win probability, 26% for a draw, and 31% for an Ipatinga win.
How many goals are expected in Vitória ES vs Ipatinga?
Expected goals: Vitória ES 1.7, Ipatinga 1.3 (total 3.0). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 69%.
What is the most likely score in Vitória ES vs Ipatinga?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 11.0%.