Brasileirão Série A
· Regular Season - 32
October 24, 2026 21:30
Estadio Manoel Barradas, El Salvador
Renato Kayzer
(ast. Emanuel Brítez)
29'
(og)
23'
Jamerson
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Atletico Paranaense a 41% win probability (draw 18%, Vitoria 39%). The final result was Vitoria 1–1 Atletico Paranaense. In 3 previous meetings, Vitoria have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 2 wins for Atletico Paranaense.
Match statistics
11
Total shots
10
4
Shots on target
0
1.69
Actual xG
0.57
0
Saves
3
60%
Possession
40%
3
Corners
5
16
Tackles
15
2
🟨 Yellow cards
3
1
🟥 Red cards
0
Match Events
14'
Jadson Alves dos Santos
23'
(og)
Jamerson⚽
25'
⚽Renato Kayzer
· ast. Emanuel Brítez
29'
Diego Tarzia
41'
42'
Luiz Gustavo
45'+4
Bruno Gonçalves Baldini
Matheusinho
/ Walace
45'
Diego Tarzia
/ Lucas Silva
68'
71'
Bruno Zapelli
/
João Victor Machado Cruz
Renato Kayzer
/ Fabri
80'
Matheuzinho
/ Tomás Pochettino
80'
80'
Kauan Augusto Stabelini
/
Bruno Gonçalves Baldini
81'
Eduardo Kogitzki Anastacio
/
Leonardo Caetano Silva
81'
Juan Portilla
/
Luiz Gustavo
Erick
/ bruno alex
87'
90'+1
Gilberto
Marinho
90'+5
90'+6
jorge rivaldo
/
Kevin Viveros
Luan Cândido
90'+6
Pre-match prediction
39.96%
Vitoria
18.76%
X ←
41.27%
Atletico
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
18.76%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.53
1.69
-0.84
2.61
0.57
-2.04
Vitoria dominated by xG (1.69 vs 0.57).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Lucas Arcanjo
G
Lucas Arcanjo
G
83
Jamerson
1 ⚽
D
Jamerson
1 ⚽
D
36
Luan Cândido
D
Luan Cândido
D
2
E. Brítez
1 👟
D
E. Brítez
1 👟
D
98
Mateusinho
45'
D
Mateusinho
45'
D
95
Caíque
M
Caíque
M
6
E. Martínez
M
E. Martínez
M
12
D. Tarzia
68'
M
D. Tarzia
68'
M
10
Matheuzinho
80'
M
Matheuzinho
80'
M
33
Erick
87'
M
Erick
87'
M
79
Renato Kayzer
1 ⚽
80'
F
Renato Kayzer
1 ⚽
80'
F
Bench
9
Alex Bruno
3'
F
Alex Bruno
3'
F
26
Edenilson
M
Edenilson
M
23
Fabrício
10'
F
Fabrício
10'
F
77
I. Laquintana
M
I. Laquintana
M
20
Lucas Silva
22'
F
Lucas Silva
22'
F
7
Marinho
95'
F
Marinho
95'
F
11
Osvaldo
F
Osvaldo
F
8
T. Pochettino
10'
M
T. Pochettino
10'
M
15
Walace
45'
M
Walace
45'
M
71
Yuri Sena
G
Yuri Sena
G
88
Zé Vitor
M
Zé Vitor
M
1
Mycael
G
Mycael
G
37
Lucas Esquivel
D
Lucas Esquivel
D
33
Juan Felipe Aguirre
D
Juan Felipe Aguirre
D
55
D
7
Steven Mendoza
M
Steven Mendoza
M
14
Luiz Gustavo
81'
M
Luiz Gustavo
81'
M
16
Jádson
M
Jádson
M
12
Gilberto
M
Gilberto
M
8
João Cruz
71'
M
João Cruz
71'
M
21
Leozinho
81'
M
Leozinho
81'
M
9
Kevin Viveros
F
Kevin Viveros
F
Bench
10
Bruno Zapelli
19'
M
Bruno Zapelli
19'
M
47
Chiqueti
M
Chiqueti
M
53
Dudu
9'
M
Dudu
9'
M
5
Felipinho
D
Felipinho
D
2
Gilberto Junior
D
Gilberto Junior
D
19
Jorge Rivaldo
1'
F
Jorge Rivaldo
1'
F
27
Juan Portilla
9'
M
Juan Portilla
9'
M
3
Léo
D
Léo
D
6
Leonardo Derik
D
Leonardo Derik
D
70
Renan Peixoto Nepomuceno
F
Renan Peixoto Nepomuceno
F
23
Santos
G
Santos
G
Best on the pitch
Renato Kayzer
F · Vitoria
7.99
1 ⚽
4 shots
· 7 pass
Mateusinho
D · Vitoria
7.48
1 shots
· 14 pass
E. Brítez
D · Vitoria
7.04
1 👟
· 59 pass
Lucas Esquivel
D · Atletico
7.00
1 shots
· 44 pass
E. Martínez
M · Vitoria
6.90
· 77 pass
Walace
M · Vitoria
6.87
· 39 pass
Vitoria — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Arcanjo | G | 90 | 6.25 | — | — | 0 | 26 | 17% | 0 | — | — |
| Jamerson | D | 90 | 5.59 | 1 | — | 0 | 64 | 52% | 2 | — | — |
| Luan Cândido | D | 90 | 6.48 | — | — | 1 | 61 | 56% | 1 | 1 | — |
| E. Brítez | D | 90 | 7.04 | — | 1 | 0 | 59 | 53% | 2 | — | — |
| Mateusinho | D | 45 | 7.48 | — | — | 1 | 14 | 8% | 2 | — | — |
| Caíque | M | 90 | 6.64 | — | — | 0 | 81 | 75% | 1 | — | — |
| E. Martínez | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 0 | 77 | 72% | 2 | — | — |
| D. Tarzia | M | 68 | 6.59 | — | — | 1 | 23 | 21% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Matheuzinho | M | 80 | 6.35 | — | — | 1 | 20 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| Erick | M | 87 | 6.15 | — | — | 2 | 36 | 24% | 0 | — | — |
| Renato Kayzer | F | 80 | 7.99 | 1 | — | 4 | 7 | 7% | 0 | — | — |
| Alex Bruno | F | 3 | 6.80 | — | — | 1 | 3 | 2% | 0 | — | — |
| Fabrício | F | 10 | 6.50 | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0% | 0 | — | — |
| Lucas Silva | F | 22 | 6.43 | — | — | 0 | 12 | 8% | 0 | — | — |
| Marinho | F | 95 | 6.10 | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | — | 1 |
| T. Pochettino | M | 10 | 6.28 | — | — | 0 | 3 | 3% | 1 | — | — |
| Walace | M | 45 | 6.87 | — | — | 0 | 39 | 35% | 3 | — | — |
Atletico Paranaense — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mycael | G | 90 | 6.71 | — | — | 0 | 19 | 8% | 0 | — | — |
| Lucas Esquivel | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 44 | 39% | 6 | — | — |
| Juan Felipe Aguirre | D | 90 | 6.75 | — | — | 0 | 29 | 29% | 0 | — | — |
| D | 0 | 0.00 | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | — | — | |
| Steven Mendoza | M | 90 | 6.37 | — | — | 1 | 29 | 24% | 1 | — | — |
| Luiz Gustavo | M | 81 | 6.38 | — | — | 2 | 34 | 29% | 0 | 1 | — |
| Jádson | M | 90 | 6.63 | — | — | 2 | 28 | 26% | 4 | 1 | — |
| Gilberto | M | 90 | 6.10 | — | — | 0 | 31 | 20% | 2 | 1 | — |
| João Cruz | M | 71 | 6.54 | — | — | 3 | 26 | 24% | 2 | — | — |
| Leozinho | M | 81 | 6.20 | — | — | 0 | 27 | 20% | 0 | — | — |
| Kevin Viveros | F | 96 | 6.23 | — | — | 0 | 10 | 8% | 0 | — | — |
| Bruno Zapelli | M | 19 | 5.99 | — | — | 0 | 5 | 5% | 0 | — | — |
| Dudu | M | 9 | 5.80 | — | — | 1 | 3 | 2% | 0 | — | — |
| Jorge Rivaldo | F | 1 | 0.00 | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | — | — |
| Juan Portilla | M | 9 | 6.27 | — | — | 0 | 8 | 7% | 0 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense?
The final score was Vitoria 1–1 Atletico Paranaense.
What did the model predict before Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense?
The model assigned 39% probability to a Vitoria win, 18% to a draw, and 41% to an Atletico Paranaense win.