Brasileirão Série A
· Regular Season - 11
April 11, 2026 23:30
Caca
(ast. Nathan Mendes)
35'
Ramon
(ast. Baralhas)
83'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Sao Paulo a 37% win probability (draw 30%, Vitoria 32%). The final result was Vitoria 2–0 Sao Paulo.
Match statistics
12
Total shots
12
6
Shots on target
5
1.03
Actual xG
0.67
5
Saves
4
41%
Possession
59%
1
Corners
6
13
Tackles
9
2
🟨 Yellow cards
3
0
🟥 Red cards
1
Match Events
⚽Caca
· ast. Nathan Mendes
35'
37'
Marcos Antônio
54'
Lucas Ramon
57'
C. Soares
/
Cauly
57'
P. dos Santos
/
Ferreira
Caique Goncalves
/ Ze Vitor
66'
66'
Wendell
/
E. Diaz
66'
G. Tapia
/
Andre Silva
Renato Kayzer
/ Rene
71'
Matheuzinho
/ D. Tarzia
71'
Diego Tarzia
75'
76'
Tetê
78'
Lucca Marques
/
Danielzinho
⚽Ramon
· ast. Baralhas
83'
Gabriel Baralhas
87'
Baralhas
/ Ronald Lopes
88'
89'
Rafael Tolói
Pre-match prediction
32.13%
Vitoria ←
30.4%
X
37.47%
Sao
we assigned to the actual result (Vitoria)
32.13%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
0.94
1.03
+0.09
1.28
0.67
-0.61
Vitoria dominated by xG (1.03 vs 0.67).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
G
13
Ramon
1 ⚽
D
Ramon
1 ⚽
D
36
D
25
Caca
1 ⚽
D
45
Nathan Mendes
1 👟
D
Nathan Mendes
1 👟
D
95
Caique Gonçalves
66'
M
Caique Gonçalves
66'
M
44
Gabriel Baralhas
1 👟
88'
M
Gabriel Baralhas
1 👟
88'
M
10
Matheuzinho
71'
M
6
Emmanuel Martínez
M
Emmanuel Martínez
M
33
Erick
M
79
Renato Kayzer
71'
F
Renato Kayzer
71'
F
Bench
17
A. Cantalapiedra
F
28
Anderson Pato
M
12
Diego Tarzia
19'
D
Diego Tarzia
19'
D
20
Lucas Silva
F
Lucas Silva
F
91
Renê Sousa
19'
F
Renê Sousa
19'
F
31
Renzo López
F
Renzo López
F
8
Ronald
8'
M
Ronald
8'
M
88
Zé Vitor
24'
M
Zé Vitor
24'
M
23
Rafael
G
Rafael
G
13
Enzo Díaz
66'
D
Enzo Díaz
66'
D
2
Rafael Tolói
D
28
A. Franco
D
19
Lucas Ramon
54'
D
8
Marcos Antonio
M
94
Danielzinho
78'
M
Danielzinho
78'
M
11
Ferreirinha
57'
M
Ferreirinha
57'
M
80
Cauly
57'
M
Cauly
57'
M
37
Artur
M
Artur
M
17
André Silva
66'
F
André Silva
66'
F
Bench
31
Carlos Coronel
G
Carlos Coronel
G
21
Cédric Soares
33'
D
Cédric Soares
33'
D
14
Gonzalo Tapia
24'
F
Gonzalo Tapia
24'
F
33
Luan Santos
M
Luan Santos
M
45
Lucca
12'
F
Lucca
12'
F
56
N. Bosshardt
D
34
Tetê
33'
F
18
Wendell
24'
D
Wendell
24'
D
Best on the pitch
G · Vitoria
8.50
· 30 pass
Caca
D · Vitoria
8.30
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 38 pass
Ramon
D · Vitoria
8.20
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 35 pass
Nathan Mendes
D · Vitoria
7.30
1 👟
· 37 pass
Artur
M · Sao
7.30
3 shots
· 33 pass
Renê Sousa
F · Vitoria
7.20
1 shots
· 2 pass
Vitoria — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 8.50 | — | — | — | 30 | 22% | — | — | — | |
| Ramon | D | 90 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 35 | 27% | 2 | — | — |
| D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 33 | 31% | 1 | — | — | |
| Caca | D | 90 | 8.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 38 | 33% | — | — | — |
| Nathan Mendes | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | 1 | — | 37 | 30% | 2 | — | — |
| Caique Gonçalves | M | 66 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 29 | 26% | 2 | — | — |
| Gabriel Baralhas | M | 88 | 6.60 | — | 1 | 1 | 19 | 18% | — | 1 | — |
| Matheuzinho | M | 71 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 21 | 17% | — | — | — |
| Emmanuel Martínez | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 51 | 43% | 2 | — | — |
| Erick | M | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | 3 | 25 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| Renato Kayzer | F | 71 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 8 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Diego Tarzia | D | 19 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 9 | 7% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Renê Sousa | F | 19 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 2 | 1% | 1 | — | — |
| Ronald | M | 8 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 5 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Zé Vitor | M | 24 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 16 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
Sao Paulo — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael | G | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 24 | 19% | — | — | — |
| Enzo Díaz | D | 66 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 38 | 33% | 2 | — | — |
| Rafael Tolói | D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 54 | 45% | 2 | 1 | — |
| A. Franco | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 54 | 46% | 1 | — | — |
| Lucas Ramon | D | 54 | 5.30 | — | — | — | 24 | 22% | — | — | 1 |
| Marcos Antonio | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 2 | 96 | 91% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Danielzinho | M | 78 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 61 | 56% | 1 | — | — |
| Ferreirinha | M | 57 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 28 | 25% | — | — | — |
| Cauly | M | 57 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 16 | 12% | — | — | — |
| Artur | M | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | 3 | 33 | 30% | 2 | — | — |
| André Silva | F | 66 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 11 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Cédric Soares | D | 33 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 18 | 15% | — | — | — |
| Gonzalo Tapia | F | 24 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 7 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Lucca | F | 12 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 5 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Tetê | F | 33 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 8 | 6% | — | 1 | — |
| Wendell | D | 24 | 6.00 | — | — | 1 | 22 | 19% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Vitoria vs Sao Paulo?
The final score was Vitoria 2–0 Sao Paulo.
What did the model predict before Vitoria vs Sao Paulo?
The model assigned 32% probability to a Vitoria win, 30% to a draw, and 37% to an Sao Paulo win.