Brasileirão Série A
· Regular Season - 11
April 11, 2026 21:30
Caca
(ast. Nathan Mendes)
35'
Ramon
(ast. Baralhas)
83'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Sao Paulo a 37% win probability (draw 30%, Vitoria 32%). The final result was Vitoria 2–0 Sao Paulo.
Match statistics
12
Total shots
12
6
Shots on target
5
1.03
Actual xG
0.67
5
Saves
4
41%
Possession
59%
1
Corners
6
13
Tackles
9
2
🟨 Yellow cards
3
0
🟥 Red cards
1
Match Events
⚽Caca
· ast. Nathan Mendes
35'
37'
Marcos Antônio
54'
Lucas Ramon
57'
C. Soares
/
Cauly
57'
P. dos Santos
/
Ferreira
Caique Goncalves
/ Ze Vitor
66'
66'
Wendell
/
E. Diaz
66'
G. Tapia
/
Andre Silva
Renato Kayzer
/ Rene
71'
Matheuzinho
/ D. Tarzia
71'
Diego Tarzia
75'
76'
Tetê
78'
Lucca Marques
/
Danielzinho
⚽Ramon
· ast. Baralhas
83'
Gabriel Baralhas
87'
Baralhas
/ Ronald Lopes
88'
89'
Rafael Tolói
Pre-match prediction
32.13%
Vitoria ←
30.4%
X
37.47%
Sao
we assigned to the actual result (Vitoria)
32.13%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
0.94
1.03
+0.09
1.28
0.67
-0.61
Vitoria dominated by xG (1.03 vs 0.67).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
G
13
Ramon
1 ⚽
D
Ramon
1 ⚽
D
36
D
25
Cacá
1 ⚽
D
Cacá
1 ⚽
D
45
Nathan Mendes
1 👟
D
Nathan Mendes
1 👟
D
95
Caíque
66'
M
Caíque
66'
M
44
Gabriel Baralhas
1 👟
88'
M
Gabriel Baralhas
1 👟
88'
M
10
Matheuzinho
71'
M
Matheuzinho
71'
M
6
E. Martínez
M
E. Martínez
M
33
Erick
M
Erick
M
79
Renato Kayzer
71'
F
Renato Kayzer
71'
F
Bench
17
Aitor Cantalapiedra
F
Aitor Cantalapiedra
F
28
Anderson Pato
M
12
D. Tarzia
19'
D
D. Tarzia
19'
D
20
Lucas Silva
F
Lucas Silva
F
91
Rene
19'
F
Rene
19'
F
31
R. López
F
R. López
F
8
Ronald
8'
M
Ronald
8'
M
88
Zé Vitor
24'
M
Zé Vitor
24'
M
23
Rafael
G
Rafael
G
13
E. Díaz
66'
D
E. Díaz
66'
D
2
R. Tolói
D
R. Tolói
D
28
A. Franco
D
A. Franco
D
19
Lucas Ramon
54'
D
Lucas Ramon
54'
D
8
Marcos Antônio
M
Marcos Antônio
M
94
Danielzinho
78'
M
Danielzinho
78'
M
11
Ferreira
57'
M
Ferreira
57'
M
80
Cauly
57'
M
Cauly
57'
M
37
Artur
M
Artur
M
17
André Silva
66'
F
André Silva
66'
F
Bench
31
Carlos Coronel
G
Carlos Coronel
G
21
Cédric Soares
33'
D
Cédric Soares
33'
D
14
Gonzalo Tapia
24'
F
Gonzalo Tapia
24'
F
33
Luan Santos
M
Luan Santos
M
45
Lucca
12'
F
Lucca
12'
F
56
Nicolas Bosshardt
D
Nicolas Bosshardt
D
34
Tetê
33'
F
Tetê
33'
F
18
Wendell
24'
D
Wendell
24'
D
Best on the pitch
G · Vitoria
8.50
· 30 pass
Cacá
D · Vitoria
8.30
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 38 pass
Ramon
D · Vitoria
8.20
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 35 pass
Nathan Mendes
D · Vitoria
7.30
1 👟
· 37 pass
Artur
M · Sao
7.30
3 shots
· 33 pass
Rene
F · Vitoria
7.20
1 shots
· 2 pass
Vitoria — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 8.50 | — | — | — | 30 | 22% | — | — | — | |
| Ramon | D | 90 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 35 | 27% | 2 | — | — |
| D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 33 | 31% | 1 | — | — | |
| Cacá | D | 90 | 8.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 38 | 33% | — | — | — |
| Nathan Mendes | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | 1 | — | 37 | 30% | 2 | — | — |
| Caíque | M | 66 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 29 | 26% | 2 | — | — |
| Gabriel Baralhas | M | 88 | 6.60 | — | 1 | 1 | 19 | 18% | — | 1 | — |
| Matheuzinho | M | 71 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 21 | 17% | — | — | — |
| E. Martínez | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 51 | 43% | 2 | — | — |
| Erick | M | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | 3 | 25 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| Renato Kayzer | F | 71 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 8 | 4% | — | — | — |
| D. Tarzia | D | 19 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 9 | 7% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Rene | F | 19 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 2 | 1% | 1 | — | — |
| Ronald | M | 8 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 5 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Zé Vitor | M | 24 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 16 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
Sao Paulo — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael | G | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 24 | 19% | — | — | — |
| E. Díaz | D | 66 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 38 | 33% | 2 | — | — |
| R. Tolói | D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 54 | 45% | 2 | 1 | — |
| A. Franco | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 54 | 46% | 1 | — | — |
| Lucas Ramon | D | 54 | 5.30 | — | — | — | 24 | 22% | — | — | 1 |
| Marcos Antônio | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 2 | 96 | 91% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Danielzinho | M | 78 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 61 | 56% | 1 | — | — |
| Ferreira | M | 57 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 28 | 25% | — | — | — |
| Cauly | M | 57 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 16 | 12% | — | — | — |
| Artur | M | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | 3 | 33 | 30% | 2 | — | — |
| André Silva | F | 66 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 11 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Cédric Soares | D | 33 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 18 | 15% | — | — | — |
| Gonzalo Tapia | F | 24 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 7 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Lucca | F | 12 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 5 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Tetê | F | 33 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 8 | 6% | — | 1 | — |
| Wendell | D | 24 | 6.00 | — | — | 1 | 22 | 19% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Vitoria vs Sao Paulo?
The final score was Vitoria 2–0 Sao Paulo.
What did the model predict before Vitoria vs Sao Paulo?
The model assigned 32% probability to a Vitoria win, 30% to a draw, and 37% to an Sao Paulo win.