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Vitoria - Vasco DA Gama

Copa do Brasil September 02, 2026 22:00
Vitoria
vs
Vasco DA Gama
⚡ Pre-match analysis
32.32%
Win
Vitoria
31.5%
Draw
36.18%
Win
Vasco DA Gama
1.05
Expected xG
1.22

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–1 (14.18%)
1X2 Result
1 32%
X 32%
2 36%
Double Chance
1X 64%
X2 68%
12 69%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 81%
Over 2.5 68%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Vasco DA Gama a 36% win probability, against 31% for a draw and 32% for Vitoria. Expected goals are 1.0 for Vitoria and 1.2 for Vasco DA Gama (total 2.3), with a 80% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 14.18% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Vitoria have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Vasco DA Gama.

Season Stats

Vitoria
3W 0D 3L
Vasco DA Gama
5W 8D 2L
Averages per game
1.3
Goals
1.3
1.0
Conceded
0.8
3.0
Shots OT
4.8
4.3
Corners
4.4
48%
Poss.
54%
Percentages
83%
O 1.5
73%
33%
O 2.5
40%
17%
BTTS
60%
50%
Clean Sht
33%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in Copa do Brasil. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
22%
O 3.5
17%
BTTS
Vitoria
2W 0D 1L · at home
Vasco DA Gama
4W 4D 1L · away
2.0
gls/g
1.4
0.7
Conceded
0.4
67%
Win %
44%
67%
Win or Draw
89%
100%
O 1.5
67%
33%
O 2.5
33%
33%
O 3.5
11%
0%
BTTS
33%
67%
Clean Sht
56%
33%
Failed to Score
33%
last 9
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Vitoria Vasco DA Gama →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 10.3% 12.6% 7.7% 3.1% 1.0% 0.2%
1 10.9% 13.2% 8.1% 3.3% 1.0% 0.2%
2 5.7% 6.9% 4.2% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1%
3 2.0% 2.4% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% —
4 0.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% — —
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% — — —

Recent form

Vitoria Vitoria
W Atletico Paranaense 4–0
L Atletico Paranaense 2–0
W Flamengo 2–0
L Flamengo 2–1
L Nautico Recife 0–2
Home clean sheet (120 days) 51%
Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama
W Fluminense 1–3
D Fluminense 0–0
D Paysandu 2–2
W Paysandu 0–2
L Corinthians 1–2
Away clean sheet (120 days) 20%

Playing profile

Vitoria Vitoria
Attack
30
Defence
56
Form
47
Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama
Attack
34
Defence
78
Form
54
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

1
Vitoria
0
Draw
0
Vasco DA Gama
17 Jul 2026 Brasileirão Série A 1–0
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Vitoria vs Vasco DA Gama?
The model gives Vitoria a 32% win probability, 31% for a draw, and 36% for an Vasco DA Gama win.
How many goals are expected in Vitoria vs Vasco DA Gama?
Expected goals: Vitoria 1.0, Vasco DA Gama 1.2 (total 2.3). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 80%.
What is the most likely score in Vitoria vs Vasco DA Gama?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 14.18%.