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Championship · Regular Season - 9 October 10, 2026 16:00 Vicarage Road, Watford
Watford
#21 · 11 pts
0 – 4
Final score
Burnley
#22 · 8 pts
13' (ast. Reo Hatate) Jacob Bruun Larsen
19' Zeki Amdouni
25' (ast. Lucas Pires Silva) Reo Hatate
87' (ast. Lucas Pires Silva) Marcus Edwards
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Watford a 37% win probability (draw 31%, Burnley 31%). The final result was Watford 0–4 Burnley.

Match statistics
14
Total shots
17
6
Shots on target
8
0.47
Actual xG
1.86
4
Saves
6
52%
Possession
48%
6
Corners
2
19
Tackles
19
Match Events
13'
ast. Reo Hatate · Jacob Bruun Larsen⚽
19'
Zeki Amdouni⚽
25'
ast. Lucas Pires Silva · Reo Hatate⚽
↕ Iker Bravo / Othmane Maamma
35'
↕ Soumaula Coulibaly / Jordan Zemura
45'
↕ Luca Kjerrumgaard / Martin Payero
45'
↕ Amin Nabizada / Myron Boadu
60'
62'
Marcus Edwards / Zeki Amdouni ↕
63'
Jamie Vardy / Largie Ramazani ↕
↕ Mamadou Doumbia / Rocco Vata
69'
74'
Dastan Satpaev / Jacob Bruun Larsen ↕
84'
Armando Broja / Max Alleyne ↕
87'
ast. Lucas Pires Silva · Marcus Edwards⚽
Pre-match prediction
37.14%
Watford
31.7%
X
31.16%
Burnley ←
we assigned to the actual result (Burnley) 31.16% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Watford
1.25
0.47
-0.78
Burnley
0.93
1.86
+0.93
Burnley dominated by xG (1.86 vs 0.47). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 12 25
2 Swansea Swansea 12 23
3 West Ham West Ham 12 22
4 Wolves Wolves 12 21
5 West Brom West Brom 12 21
6 Southampton Southampton 12 20
7 Birmingham Birmingham 12 20
8 QPR QPR 12 20
9 Stoke City Stoke City 12 20
10 Blackburn Blackburn 12 18
11 Portsmouth Portsmouth 12 18
12 Sheffield Utd Sheffield Utd 12 16
13 Millwall Millwall 12 15
14 Bristol City Bristol City 12 15
15 Lincoln Lincoln 12 15
16 Cardiff Cardiff 12 14
17 Wrexham Wrexham 12 14
18 Bolton Bolton 12 14
19 Charlton Charlton 12 14
20 Norwich Norwich 12 12
21 Watford Watford 12 11
22 Burnley Burnley 12 8
23 Derby Derby 12 7
24 Preston Preston 12 5
Lineups
Watford Watford 4-2-3-1
1 F. Ravaglia F. Ravaglia G 6.69
3 S. Coulibaly S. Coulibaly 45' D 6.38
29 Branimir Mlačić Branimir Mlačić D 6.23
6 M. Pollock M. Pollock D 6.46
23 O. Traoré O. Traoré D 5.71
5 H. Kyprianou H. Kyprianou M 6.54
39 E. Kayembe E. Kayembe M 6.24
21 Amin Nabizada Amin Nabizada 60' M 5.98
17 Iker Bravo Iker Bravo 35' M 5.80
20 M. Doumbia M. Doumbia 69' M 5.95
9 L. Kjerrumgaard L. Kjerrumgaard 45' F 5.89
Bench
26 D. Bachmann D. Bachmann G 0.00
33 J. Zemura J. Zemura 45' D 6.31
4 K. Keben K. Keben D 0.00
10 M. Boadu M. Boadu 30' F 6.57
16 M. Bola M. Bola D 0.00
22 M. Payero M. Payero 45' M 6.06
7 O. Maamma O. Maamma 55' F 6.33
11 R. Vata R. Vata 21' F 6.41
45 S. Mavididi S. Mavididi F 0.00
Burnley Burnley 4-2-3-1
37 G. Coudert G. Coudert G 7.77
23 Lucas Pires Lucas Pires 2 👟 D 8.45
44 Igor Igor D 6.93
15 A. Ahmedhodžić A. Ahmedhodžić D 6.63
2 K. Walker K. Walker D 6.81
3 Max Alleyne Max Alleyne 84' M 6.34
29 J. Laurent J. Laurent M 6.30
19 L. Ramazani L. Ramazani 63' M 6.21
5 R. Hatate R. Hatate 1 ⚽ 1 👟 M 8.65
7 J. Bruun Larsen J. Bruun Larsen 1 ⚽ 74' M 8.20
11 Z. Amdouni Z. Amdouni 1 ⚽ 62' F 7.86
Bench
27 A. Broja A. Broja 6' F 6.54
17 A. Hountondji A. Hountondji F 0.00
14 C. Roberts C. Roberts D 0.00
12 D. Satpaev D. Satpaev 16' F 6.59
18 H. Ekdal H. Ekdal D 0.00
9 J. Vardy J. Vardy 27' F 6.43
10 M. Edwards M. Edwards 1 ⚽ 28' F 7.58
1 M. Weiß M. Weiß G 0.00
22 O. Sonne O. Sonne D 0.00
Best on the pitch
R. Hatate
R. Hatate
M · Burnley
8.65
1 ⚽ 1 👟
2 shots · 37 pass
Lucas Pires
Lucas Pires
D · Burnley
8.45
2 👟
2 shots · 37 pass
J. Bruun Larsen
J. Bruun Larsen
M · Burnley
8.20
1 ⚽
3 shots · 36 pass
Z. Amdouni
Z. Amdouni
F · Burnley
7.86
1 ⚽
3 shots · 6 pass
G. Coudert
G. Coudert
G · Burnley
7.77
· 29 pass
M. Edwards
M. Edwards
F · Burnley
7.58
1 ⚽
4 shots · 16 pass
Watford Watford — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
F. Ravaglia G 90 6.69 — — 0 29 24% 1 — —
S. Coulibaly D 45 6.38 — — 0 38 34% 1 — —
Branimir Mlačić D 90 6.23 — — 1 79 73% 2 — —
M. Pollock D 90 6.46 — — 0 74 65% 1 — —
O. Traoré D 90 5.71 — — 0 33 31% 0 — —
H. Kyprianou M 90 6.54 — — 2 51 48% 2 — —
E. Kayembe M 90 6.24 — — 2 34 29% 3 — —
Amin Nabizada M 60 5.98 — — 2 19 12% 0 — —
Iker Bravo M 35 5.80 — — 0 4 3% 0 — —
M. Doumbia M 69 5.95 — — 3 14 9% 0 — —
L. Kjerrumgaard F 45 5.89 — — 0 9 9% 0 — —
J. Zemura D 45 6.31 — — 2 11 9% 3 — —
M. Boadu F 30 6.57 — — 0 2 2% 0 — —
M. Payero M 45 6.06 — — 1 19 18% 1 — —
O. Maamma F 55 6.33 — — 1 22 21% 3 — —
R. Vata F 21 6.41 — — 0 11 9% 2 — —
Burnley Burnley — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G. Coudert G 90 7.77 — — 0 29 17% 0 — —
Lucas Pires D 90 8.45 — 2 2 37 33% 5 — —
Igor D 90 6.93 — — 0 56 51% 3 — —
A. Ahmedhodžić D 90 6.63 — — 0 63 62% 2 — —
K. Walker D 90 6.81 — — 0 62 48% 3 — —
Max Alleyne M 84 6.34 — — 0 30 23% 2 — —
J. Laurent M 90 6.30 — — 1 18 15% 0 — —
L. Ramazani M 63 6.21 — — 1 22 15% 2 — —
R. Hatate M 90 8.65 1 1 2 37 33% 0 — —
J. Bruun Larsen M 74 8.20 1 — 3 36 29% 0 — —
Z. Amdouni F 62 7.86 1 — 3 6 6% 0 — —
A. Broja F 6 6.54 — — 0 1 1% 0 — —
D. Satpaev F 16 6.59 — — 1 2 1% 1 — —
J. Vardy F 27 6.43 — — 0 6 4% 0 — —
M. Edwards F 28 7.58 1 — 4 16 11% 1 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Watford vs Burnley?
The final score was Watford 0–4 Burnley.
What did the model predict before Watford vs Burnley?
The model assigned 37% probability to a Watford win, 31% to a draw, and 31% to an Burnley win.