Watford 2–1 Southampton — pre-match prediction — Championship — August 16, 2026

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Championship · Regular Season - 1 August 16, 2026 14:30 Vicarage Road, Watford

Watford

#21 · 11 pts

2 – 1

Final score

Southampton

#6 · 20 pts

I. Bravo 12'

A. Nabizada 29'

56' (ast. C. Bragg) C. Larin

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Southampton a 35% win probability (draw 32%, Watford 32%). The final result was Watford 2–1 Southampton. In 2 previous meetings, Watford have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 1 wins for Southampton.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

0.83

Actual xG

1.65

Saves

34%

Possession

66%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

H. Kyprianou

⚽I. Bravo

12'

M. Pollock

13'

14'

C. Larin

18'

J. Bree

↕ M. Bola / J. Zemura

24'

⚽A. Nabizada

29'

A. Nabizada

43'

56'

ast. C. Bragg · C. Larin⚽

57'

F. Azaz / L. Dobbin ↕

↕ E. Bove / E. Kayembe

61'

↕ A. Nabizada / M. Adu Poku

61'

↕ I. Bravo / M. Payero

61'

70'

D. Mubama / C. Larin ↕

70'

S. Edozie / C. Bragg ↕

M. Doumbia

72'

74'

F. Downes

O. Maamma

74'

↕ O. Maamma / R. Vata

77'

M. Payero

84'

89'

B. Brereton Diaz / K. Matsuki ↕

Pre-match prediction

32.37%

Watford ←

32.37%

35.25%

Southampton

we assigned to the actual result (Watford) 32.37% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Watford

1.18

0.83

-0.35

Southampton

2.25

1.65

-0.6

Southampton dominated by xG (1.65 vs 0.83). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Middlesbrough	12	25
2	Swansea	12	23
3	West Ham	12	22
4	Wolves	12	21
5	West Brom	12	21
6	Southampton	12	20
7	Birmingham	12	20
8	QPR	12	20
9	Stoke City	12	20
10	Blackburn	12	18
11	Portsmouth	12	18
12	Sheffield Utd	12	16
13	Millwall	12	15
14	Bristol City	12	15
15	Lincoln	12	15
16	Cardiff	12	14
17	Wrexham	12	14
18	Bolton	12	14
19	Charlton	12	14
20	Norwich	12	12
21	Watford	12	11
22	Burnley	12	8
23	Derby	12	7
24	Preston	12	5

Lineups

Watford 4-2-3-1

F. Ravaglia G 7.20

M. Bola 24' D 6.60

K. Keben D 6.90

M. Pollock D 6.60

O. Traoré D 6.50

H. Kyprianou M 7.30

E. Bove 61' M 6.70

O. Maamma 77' M 6.90

Iker Bravo 1 ⚽ 61' M 7.90

Amin Nabizada 1 ⚽ 61' M 7.30

M. Doumbia F 6.30

Bench

Albert Eames D

D. Bachmann G

E. Kayembe 29' M 6.60

James Andrew Clarridge D

J. Zemura 66' D 6.30

L. Kjerrumgaard F

M. Adu-Poku 29' F 6.70

M. Payero 29' M 6.30

R. Vata 13' F 6.70

Southampton 4-2-3-1

Daniel Peretz G 5.60

R. Manning D 7.70

J. Stephens D 5.90

T. Harwood-Bellis D 7.50

J. Bree D 6.50

F. Downes M 7.20

Cameron Bragg 1 👟 70' M 7.20

L. Dobbin 57' M 6.20

Léo Scienza M 6.30

K. Matsuki 89' M 6.70

C. Larin 1 ⚽ 70' F 7.70

Bench

B. Brereton 1' F

C. Archer F

D. Mubama 20' F 6.50

F. Azaz 33' M 6.50

G. Long G

N. Wood-Gordon D

S. Edozie 20' M 6.70

T. Fellows M

Welington D

Best on the pitch

Iker Bravo

M · Watford

7.90

1 ⚽

1 shots · 13 pass

C. Larin

F · Southampton

7.70

1 ⚽

3 shots · 17 pass

R. Manning

D · Southampton

7.70

1 shots · 73 pass

T. Harwood-Bellis

D · Southampton

7.50

2 shots · 84 pass

H. Kyprianou

M · Watford

7.30

1 shots · 42 pass

Amin Nabizada

M · Watford

7.30

1 ⚽

1 shots · 9 pass

Watford — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
F. Ravaglia	G	90	7.20	—	—	—	27	18%	—	—	—
M. Bola	D	24	6.60	—	—	1	10	6%	—	—	—
K. Keben	D	90	6.90	—	—	—	40	35%	3	—	—
M. Pollock	D	90	6.60	—	—	1	30	26%	2	1	—
O. Traoré	D	90	6.50	—	—	1	12	11%	2	—	—
H. Kyprianou	M	90	7.30	—	—	1	42	32%	4	1	—
E. Bove	M	61	6.70	—	—	1	19	16%	3	—	—
O. Maamma	M	77	6.90	—	—	1	18	15%	—	1	—
Iker Bravo	M	61	7.90	1	—	1	13	10%	—	—	—
Amin Nabizada	M	61	7.30	1	—	1	9	7%	2	1	—
M. Doumbia	F	90	6.30	—	—	—	16	10%	—	1	—
E. Kayembe	M	29	6.60	—	—	—	4	3%	—	—	—
J. Zemura	D	66	6.30	—	—	—	22	16%	1	—	—
M. Adu-Poku	F	29	6.70	—	—	—	4	4%	—	—	—
M. Payero	M	29	6.30	—	—	—	1	—	—	1	—
R. Vata	F	13	6.70	—	—	1	—	—	—	—	—

Southampton — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Daniel Peretz	G	90	5.60	—	—	—	25	17%	—	—	—
R. Manning	D	90	7.70	—	—	1	73	67%	—	—	—
J. Stephens	D	90	5.90	—	—	2	68	61%	—	—	—
T. Harwood-Bellis	D	90	7.50	—	—	2	84	75%	2	—	—
J. Bree	D	90	6.50	—	—	—	33	31%	2	1	—
F. Downes	M	90	7.20	—	—	—	60	53%	7	1	—
Cameron Bragg	M	70	7.20	—	1	—	46	43%	4	—	—
L. Dobbin	M	57	6.20	—	—	—	19	17%	1	—	—
Léo Scienza	M	90	6.30	—	—	1	35	27%	1	—	—
K. Matsuki	M	89	6.70	—	—	—	28	25%	3	—	—
C. Larin	F	70	7.70	1	—	3	17	13%	—	1	—
B. Brereton	F	1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
D. Mubama	F	20	6.50	—	—	—	3	3%	—	—	—
F. Azaz	M	33	6.50	—	—	2	14	11%	—	—	—
S. Edozie	M	20	6.70	—	—	—	8	7%	1	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Watford vs Southampton?

The final score was Watford 2–1 Southampton.

What did the model predict before Watford vs Southampton?

The model assigned 32% probability to a Watford win, 32% to a draw, and 35% to an Southampton win.