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Werder Bremen - Borussia Dortmund

Bundesliga May 16, 2026 15:30
Werder Bremen
#15 · 32 pts
vs
Borussia Dortmund
#2 · 70 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
20.39%
Win
Werder Bremen
20.19%
Draw
59.41%
Win
Borussia Dortmund
1.03
Expected xG
2.05
Model prediction
Borussia Dortmund
59.41%
Probability
67.9%
1X2 accuracy · 28 predictions (3 months)

The ForzaPitch prediction gives Borussia Dortmund a 59% win probability, against 20% for a draw and 20% for Werder Bremen. Expected goals are 1.0 for Werder Bremen and 2.0 for Borussia Dortmund (total 3.1), with a 84% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–2 at 9.9% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Werder Bremen have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Borussia Dortmund.

Score Matrix
↕ Werder Bremen Borussia Dortmund →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 4.6% 9.5% 9.7% 6.6% 3.4% 1.4%
1 4.7% 9.7% 9.9% 6.8% 3.5% 1.4%
2 2.4% 5.0% 5.1% 3.5% 1.8% 0.7%
3 0.8% 1.7% 1.8% 1.2% 0.6% 0.3%
4 0.2% 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%
5 — 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% — —
Recent form
Werder Bremen Werder Bremen
L 1899 Hoffenheim 1–0
L FC Augsburg 1–3
D VfB Stuttgart 1–1
W Hamburger SV 3–1
L 1. FC Köln 3–1
Clean sheet in casa (120gg) 17%
Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund
W Eintracht Frankfurt 3–2
L Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–0
W SC Freiburg 4–0
L 1899 Hoffenheim 2–1
L Bayer Leverkusen 0–1
Clean sheet in trasferta (120gg) 24%
Playing profile
Werder Bremen Werder Bremen
Attack
31
Defence
55
Form
35
Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund
Attack
45
Defence
68
Form
60
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
0
Werder Bremen
0
Draw
1
Borussia Dortmund
L 13 Jan 2026 Bundesliga 0–3
League Table
# Team G Pts
1 Bayern München Bayern München 33 86
2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 33 70
3 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 33 65
4 VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart 33 61
5 1899 Hoffenheim 1899 Hoffenheim 33 61
6 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 33 58
7 SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 33 44
8 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt 33 43
9 FC Augsburg FC Augsburg 33 43
10 FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 33 37
11 Hamburger SV Hamburger SV 33 37
12 Union Berlin Union Berlin 33 36
13 Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Mönchengladbach 33 35
14 1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln 33 32
15 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 33 32
16 VfL Wolfsburg VfL Wolfsburg 33 26
17 1. FC Heidenheim 1. FC Heidenheim 33 26
18 FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli 33 26
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund?
The model gives Werder Bremen a 20% win probability, 20% for a draw, and 59% for an Borussia Dortmund win.
How many goals are expected in Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund?
Expected goals: Werder Bremen 1.0, Borussia Dortmund 2.0 (total 3.1). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 84%.
What is the most likely score in Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund?
1–2 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 9.9%.