Bundesliga · Regular Season - 30 April 18, 2026 17:30

Werder Bremen

#15 · 32 pts

3 – 1

Final score

Hamburger SV

#11 · 37 pts

✓Model correct — prediction Werder Bremen

J. Stage (ast. Y. Sugawara) 37'

J. Stage (ast. C. Puertas) 57'

C. Puertas (ast. R. Schmid) 90'+1

41' (ast. N. Capaldo) R. Glatzel

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Werder Bremen a 58% win probability (draw 18%, Hamburger SV 22%). The final result was Werder Bremen 3–1 Hamburger SV. In 1 previous meetings, Werder Bremen have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Hamburger SV.

Match statistics

11

Total shots

7

7

Shots on target

3

1.23

Actual xG

0.54

2

Saves

5

58%

Possession

42%

3

Corners

3

19

Tackles

15

4

🟨 Yellow cards

2

0

🟥 Red cards

2

Match Events

⚽J. Stage · ast. Y. Sugawara

37'

41'

ast. N. Capaldo · R. Glatzel⚽

O. Deman

45'

45'

R. Konigsdorffer

⚽J. Stage · ast. C. Puertas

57'

58'

M. Muheim

↕ J. Milosevic / M. Grull

61'

66'

P. Otele / A. Gronbaek ↕

↕ J. Stage / L. Bittencourt

67'

Y. Sugawara

71'

L. Bittencourt

73'

75'

B. Jatta / M. Muheim ↕

75'

O. Stange / R. Konigsdorffer ↕

79'

P. Otele

M. Grull

82'

83'

D. Downs / N. Capaldo ↕

89'

B. Jatta

↕ J. Njinmah / N. Stark

89'

⚽C. Puertas · ast. R. Schmid

90'+1

Pre-match prediction

58.83%

Werder ←

18.67%

X

22.5%

Hamburger

✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Werder Bremen) 58.83% (medium confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

Werder

2.21

1.23

-0.98

Hamburger

0.82

0.54

-0.28

Werder Bremen dominated by xG (1.23 vs 0.54). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Bayern München	33	86
2	Borussia Dortmund	33	70
3	RB Leipzig	33	65
4	VfB Stuttgart	33	61
5	1899 Hoffenheim	33	61
6	Bayer Leverkusen	33	58
7	SC Freiburg	33	44
8	Eintracht Frankfurt	33	43
9	FC Augsburg	33	43
10	FSV Mainz 05	33	37
11	Hamburger SV	33	37
12	Union Berlin	33	36
13	Borussia Mönchengladbach	33	35
14	1. FC Köln	33	32
15	Werder Bremen	33	32
16	VfL Wolfsburg	33	26
17	1. FC Heidenheim	33	26
18	FC St. Pauli	33	26

Lineups

Werder Bremen 4-1-4-1

30

M. Backhaus 89' G 6.70

2

O. Deman 89' D 6.90

31

K. Coulibaly 89' D 7.30

5

Amos Pieper 89' D 6.50

3

Y. Sugawara 1 👟 89' D 7.20

14

89' M 6.90

20

R. Schmid 1 👟 89' M 7.20

18

Cameron Puertas 1 ⚽ 1 👟 89' M 6.70

6

J. Stage 2 ⚽ 67' M 8.50

11

J. Njinmah 89' M 6.90

19 J. Milošević 60' F 6.00

Bench

23

I. Schmidt D

10

L. Bittencourt 22' M 6.30

17

M. Grull 29' F 6.30

4

N. Stark D

29

S. Musah F

Hamburger SV 3-4-1-2

1

89' G 7.60

17 Warmed Omari 89' D 6.30

25 J. Torunarigha 89' D 6.30

24 Nicolás Capaldo 1 👟 83' D 6.20

28 M. Muheim 75' M 6.90

23 Albert Grønbæk 66' M 6.60

21 N. Remberg 89' M 6.90

2

W. Mikelbrencis 89' M 6.20

20 Fábio Vieira 89' F 7.20

11 Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer 75' F 6.30

9

R. Glatzel 1 ⚽ 89' F 7.20

Bench

18 Bakery Jatta 10' M 5.90

8 Daniel Elfadli M

27 Philip Otele 13' F 5.70

14 Rayan Philippe F

Best on the pitch

J. Stage

M · Werder

8.50

2 ⚽

3 shots · 20 pass

G · Hamburger

7.60

· 42 pass

K. Coulibaly

D · Werder

7.30

· 60 pass

Fábio Vieira

F · Hamburger

7.20

1 shots · 30 pass

Y. Sugawara

D · Werder

7.20

1 👟

· 31 pass

R. Glatzel

F · Hamburger

7.20

1 ⚽

2 shots · 22 pass

Werder Bremen — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
M. Backhaus	G	89	6.70	—	—	—	30	25%	—	—	—
O. Deman	D	89	6.90	—	—	—	44	34%	5	1	—
K. Coulibaly	D	89	7.30	—	—	—	60	55%	2	—	—
Amos Pieper	D	89	6.50	—	—	—	51	43%	—	—	—
Y. Sugawara	D	89	7.20	—	1	—	31	23%	1	1	—
	M	89	6.90	—	—	—	47	38%	4	—	—
R. Schmid	M	89	7.20	—	1	2	41	35%	3	—	—
Cameron Puertas	M	89	6.70	1	1	3	39	30%	2	—	—
J. Stage	M	67	8.50	2	—	3	20	14%	—	—	—
J. Njinmah	M	89	6.90	—	—	3	19	15%	2	—	—
J. Milošević	F	60	6.00	—	—	—	11	7%	—	—	—
L. Bittencourt	M	22	6.30	—	—	—	8	8%	—	1	—
M. Grull	F	29	6.30	—	—	—	6	4%	—	1	—

Hamburger SV — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
	G	89	7.60	—	—	—	42	26%	—	—	—
Warmed Omari	D	89	6.30	—	—	1	34	30%	2	—	—
J. Torunarigha	D	89	6.30	—	—	—	41	30%	—	—	—
Nicolás Capaldo	D	83	6.20	—	1	1	31	18%	4	—	—
M. Muheim	M	75	6.90	—	—	—	17	16%	2	1	—
Albert Grønbæk	M	66	6.60	—	—	—	9	5%	3	—	—
N. Remberg	M	89	6.90	—	—	—	42	37%	—	—	—
W. Mikelbrencis	M	89	6.20	—	—	1	14	10%	3	—	—
Fábio Vieira	F	89	7.20	—	—	1	30	25%	—	—	—
Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer	F	75	6.30	—	—	1	7	5%	1	1	—
R. Glatzel	F	89	7.20	1	—	2	22	16%	—	—	—
Bakery Jatta	M	10	5.90	—	—	—	4	4%	—	—	1
Philip Otele	F	13	5.70	—	—	—	1	1%	—	—	1