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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 30 April 18, 2026 15:30 Weser-Stadion, Bremen
Werder Bremen
#6 · 12 pts
3 – 1
Final score
Hamburger SV
#11 · 9 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Werder Bremen
J. Stage (ast. Y. Sugawara) 37'
J. Stage (ast. C. Puertas) 57'
C. Puertas (ast. R. Schmid) 90'+1
41' (ast. N. Capaldo) R. Glatzel
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Werder Bremen a 58% win probability (draw 18%, Hamburger SV 22%). The final result was Werder Bremen 3–1 Hamburger SV. In 1 previous meetings, Werder Bremen have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Hamburger SV.

Match statistics
11
Total shots
7
7
Shots on target
3
1.23
Actual xG
0.54
2
Saves
5
58%
Possession
42%
3
Corners
3
19
Tackles
15
4
🟨 Yellow cards
2
0
🟥 Red cards
2
Match Events
⚽J. Stage · ast. Y. Sugawara
37'
41'
ast. N. Capaldo · R. Glatzel⚽
O. Deman
45'
45'
R. Konigsdorffer
⚽J. Stage · ast. C. Puertas
57'
58'
M. Muheim
↕ J. Milosevic / M. Grull
61'
66'
P. Otele / A. Gronbaek ↕
↕ J. Stage / L. Bittencourt
67'
Y. Sugawara
71'
L. Bittencourt
73'
75'
B. Jatta / M. Muheim ↕
75'
O. Stange / R. Konigsdorffer ↕
79'
P. Otele
M. Grull
82'
83'
D. Downs / N. Capaldo ↕
89'
B. Jatta
↕ J. Njinmah / N. Stark
89'
⚽C. Puertas · ast. R. Schmid
90'+1
Pre-match prediction
58.83%
Werder ←
18.67%
X
22.5%
Hamburger
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Werder Bremen) 58.83% (medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Werder
2.21
1.23
-0.98
Hamburger
0.82
0.54
-0.28
Werder Bremen dominated by xG (1.23 vs 0.54). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Bayern München Bayern München 7 17
2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 7 17
3 SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 7 13
4 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 7 13
5 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 7 12
6 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 7 12
7 FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 7 10
8 SV Elversberg SV Elversberg 7 10
9 FC Augsburg FC Augsburg 7 9
10 1899 Hoffenheim 1899 Hoffenheim 7 9
11 Hamburger SV Hamburger SV 7 9
12 1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln 7 8
13 SC Paderborn 07 SC Paderborn 07 7 8
14 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt 7 8
15 VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart 7 6
16 FC Schalke 04 FC Schalke 04 7 6
17 Union Berlin Union Berlin 7 6
18 Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Mönchengladbach 7 3
Lineups
Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 4-1-4-1
30 M. Backhaus M. Backhaus 89' G 6.70
2 O. Deman O. Deman 89' D 6.90
31 Abdoul Karim Coulibaly Abdoul Karim Coulibaly 89' D 7.30
5 A. Pieper A. Pieper 89' D 6.50
3 Y. Sugawara Y. Sugawara 1 👟 89' D 7.20
14
89' M 6.90
20 R. Schmid R. Schmid 1 👟 89' M 7.20
18 Cameron Puertas Cameron Puertas 1 ⚽ 1 👟 89' M 6.70
6 Jens Stage Jens Stage 2 ⚽ 67' M 8.50
11 Justin Njinmah Justin Njinmah 89' M 6.90
19 J. Milošević J. Milošević 60' F 6.00
Bench
23 I. Schmidt I. Schmidt D
10 L. Bittencourt L. Bittencourt 22' M 6.30
17 M. Grüll M. Grüll 29' F 6.30
4 N. Stark N. Stark D
29 Salim Musah Salim Musah F
Hamburger SV Hamburger SV 3-4-1-2
1
89' G 7.60
17 W. Omari W. Omari 89' D 6.30
25 J. Torunarigha J. Torunarigha 89' D 6.30
24 N. Capaldo N. Capaldo 1 👟 83' D 6.20
28 M. Muheim M. Muheim 75' M 6.90
23 A. Grønbæk A. Grønbæk 66' M 6.60
21 N. Remberg N. Remberg 89' M 6.90
2 W. Mikelbrencis W. Mikelbrencis 89' M 6.20
20 Fábio Vieira Fábio Vieira 89' F 7.20
11 R. Königsdörffer R. Königsdörffer 75' F 6.30
9 R. Glatzel R. Glatzel 1 ⚽ 89' F 7.20
Bench
18 B. Jatta B. Jatta 10' M 5.90
8 Daniel Elfadli Daniel Elfadli M
27 P. Otele P. Otele 13' F 5.70
14 R. Philippe R. Philippe F
Best on the pitch
Jens Stage
Jens Stage
M · Werder
8.50
2 ⚽
3 shots · 20 pass
G · Hamburger
7.60
· 42 pass
Abdoul Karim Coulibaly
Abdoul Karim Coulibaly
D · Werder
7.30
· 60 pass
Fábio Vieira
Fábio Vieira
F · Hamburger
7.20
1 shots · 30 pass
Y. Sugawara
Y. Sugawara
D · Werder
7.20
1 👟
· 31 pass
R. Glatzel
R. Glatzel
F · Hamburger
7.20
1 ⚽
2 shots · 22 pass
Werder Bremen Werder Bremen — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
M. Backhaus G 89 6.70 — — — 30 25% — — —
O. Deman D 89 6.90 — — — 44 34% 5 1 —
Abdoul Karim Coulibaly D 89 7.30 — — — 60 55% 2 — —
A. Pieper D 89 6.50 — — — 51 43% — — —
Y. Sugawara D 89 7.20 — 1 — 31 23% 1 1 —
M 89 6.90 — — — 47 38% 4 — —
R. Schmid M 89 7.20 — 1 2 41 35% 3 — —
Cameron Puertas M 89 6.70 1 1 3 39 30% 2 — —
Jens Stage M 67 8.50 2 — 3 20 14% — — —
Justin Njinmah M 89 6.90 — — 3 19 15% 2 — —
J. Milošević F 60 6.00 — — — 11 7% — — —
L. Bittencourt M 22 6.30 — — — 8 8% — 1 —
M. Grüll F 29 6.30 — — — 6 4% — 1 —
Hamburger SV Hamburger SV — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 89 7.60 — — — 42 26% — — —
W. Omari D 89 6.30 — — 1 34 30% 2 — —
J. Torunarigha D 89 6.30 — — — 41 30% — — —
N. Capaldo D 83 6.20 — 1 1 31 18% 4 — —
M. Muheim M 75 6.90 — — — 17 16% 2 1 —
A. Grønbæk M 66 6.60 — — — 9 5% 3 — —
N. Remberg M 89 6.90 — — — 42 37% — — —
W. Mikelbrencis M 89 6.20 — — 1 14 10% 3 — —
Fábio Vieira F 89 7.20 — — 1 30 25% — — —
R. Königsdörffer F 75 6.30 — — 1 7 5% 1 1 —
R. Glatzel F 89 7.20 1 — 2 22 16% — — —
B. Jatta M 10 5.90 — — — 4 4% — — 1
P. Otele F 13 5.70 — — — 1 1% — — 1
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV?
The final score was Werder Bremen 3–1 Hamburger SV.
What did the model predict before Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV?
The model assigned 58% probability to a Werder Bremen win, 18% to a draw, and 22% to an Hamburger SV win.