Bundesliga · Regular Season - 30 April 18, 2026 15:30 Weserstadion, Bremen

Werder Bremen

#15 · 0 pts

3 – 1

Final score

Hamburger SV

#13 · 0 pts

✓Model correct — prediction Werder Bremen

J. Stage (ast. Y. Sugawara) 37'

J. Stage (ast. C. Puertas) 57'

C. Puertas (ast. R. Schmid) 90'+1

41' (ast. N. Capaldo) R. Glatzel

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Werder Bremen a 58% win probability (draw 18%, Hamburger SV 22%). The final result was Werder Bremen 3–1 Hamburger SV. In 1 previous meetings, Werder Bremen have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Hamburger SV.

Match statistics

11

Total shots

7

7

Shots on target

3

1.23

Actual xG

0.54

2

Saves

5

58%

Possession

42%

3

Corners

3

19

Tackles

15

4

🟨 Yellow cards

2

0

🟥 Red cards

2

Match Events

⚽J. Stage · ast. Y. Sugawara

37'

41'

ast. N. Capaldo · R. Glatzel⚽

O. Deman

45'

45'

R. Konigsdorffer

⚽J. Stage · ast. C. Puertas

57'

58'

M. Muheim

↕ J. Milosevic / M. Grull

61'

66'

P. Otele / A. Gronbaek ↕

↕ J. Stage / L. Bittencourt

67'

Y. Sugawara

71'

L. Bittencourt

73'

75'

B. Jatta / M. Muheim ↕

75'

O. Stange / R. Konigsdorffer ↕

79'

P. Otele

M. Grull

82'

83'

D. Downs / N. Capaldo ↕

89'

B. Jatta

↕ J. Njinmah / N. Stark

89'

⚽C. Puertas · ast. R. Schmid

90'+1

Pre-match prediction

58.83%

Werder ←

18.67%

X

22.5%

Hamburger

✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Werder Bremen) 58.83% (medium confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

Werder

2.21

1.23

-0.98

Hamburger

0.82

0.54

-0.28

Werder Bremen dominated by xG (1.23 vs 0.54). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Bayern München	0	0
2	Borussia Dortmund	0	0
3	RB Leipzig	0	0
4	VfB Stuttgart	0	0
5	1899 Hoffenheim	0	0
6	Bayer Leverkusen	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0
8	Eintracht Frankfurt	0	0
9	FC Augsburg	0	0
10	FSV Mainz 05	0	0
11	Union Berlin	0	0
12	Borussia Mönchengladbach	0	0
13	Hamburger SV	0	0
14	1. FC Köln	0	0
15	Werder Bremen	0	0
16	FC Schalke 04	0	0
17	SV Elversberg	0	0
18	SC Paderborn 07	0	0

Lineups

Werder Bremen 4-1-4-1

30 Mio Backhaus 89' G 6.70

2 Olivier Deman 89' D 6.90

31 Karim Coulibaly 89' D 7.30

5 Amos Pieper 89' D 6.50

3 Yukinari Sugawara 1 👟 89' D 7.20

14

89' M 6.90

20 Romano Schmid 1 👟 89' M 7.20

18 Cameron Puertas 1 ⚽ 1 👟 89' M 6.70

6 J. Stage 2 ⚽ 67' M 8.50

11 Justin Njinmah 89' M 6.90

19 J. Milošević 60' F 6.00

Bench

23 Isaac Schmidt D

10 L. Bittencourt 22' M 6.30

17 Marco Grüll 29' F 6.30

4 Niklas Stark D

29 Salim Musah F

Hamburger SV 3-4-1-2

1

89' G 7.60

17 Warmed Omari 89' D 6.30

25 J. Torunarigha 89' D 6.30

24 N. Capaldo 1 👟 83' D 6.20

28 Miro Muheim 75' M 6.90

23 Albert Grønbæk 66' M 6.60

21 N. Remberg 89' M 6.90

2 William Mikelbrencis 89' M 6.20

20 Fábio Vieira 89' F 7.20

11 Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer 75' F 6.30

9

R. Glatzel 1 ⚽ 89' F 7.20

Bench

18 Bakery Jatta 10' M 5.90

8 Daniel Elfadli M

27 P. Otele 13' F 5.70

14 Rayan Philippe F

Best on the pitch

J. Stage

M · Werder

8.50

2 ⚽

3 shots · 20 pass

G · Hamburger

7.60

· 42 pass

Karim Coulibaly

D · Werder

7.30

· 60 pass

Fábio Vieira

F · Hamburger

7.20

1 shots · 30 pass

Yukinari Sugawara

D · Werder

7.20

1 👟

· 31 pass

R. Glatzel

F · Hamburger

7.20

1 ⚽

2 shots · 22 pass

Werder Bremen — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Mio Backhaus	G	89	6.70	—	—	—	30	25%	—	—	—
Olivier Deman	D	89	6.90	—	—	—	44	34%	5	1	—
Karim Coulibaly	D	89	7.30	—	—	—	60	55%	2	—	—
Amos Pieper	D	89	6.50	—	—	—	51	43%	—	—	—
Yukinari Sugawara	D	89	7.20	—	1	—	31	23%	1	1	—
	M	89	6.90	—	—	—	47	38%	4	—	—
Romano Schmid	M	89	7.20	—	1	2	41	35%	3	—	—
Cameron Puertas	M	89	6.70	1	1	3	39	30%	2	—	—
J. Stage	M	67	8.50	2	—	3	20	14%	—	—	—
Justin Njinmah	M	89	6.90	—	—	3	19	15%	2	—	—
J. Milošević	F	60	6.00	—	—	—	11	7%	—	—	—
L. Bittencourt	M	22	6.30	—	—	—	8	8%	—	1	—
Marco Grüll	F	29	6.30	—	—	—	6	4%	—	1	—

Hamburger SV — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
	G	89	7.60	—	—	—	42	26%	—	—	—
Warmed Omari	D	89	6.30	—	—	1	34	30%	2	—	—
J. Torunarigha	D	89	6.30	—	—	—	41	30%	—	—	—
N. Capaldo	D	83	6.20	—	1	1	31	18%	4	—	—
Miro Muheim	M	75	6.90	—	—	—	17	16%	2	1	—
Albert Grønbæk	M	66	6.60	—	—	—	9	5%	3	—	—
N. Remberg	M	89	6.90	—	—	—	42	37%	—	—	—
William Mikelbrencis	M	89	6.20	—	—	1	14	10%	3	—	—
Fábio Vieira	F	89	7.20	—	—	1	30	25%	—	—	—
Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer	F	75	6.30	—	—	1	7	5%	1	1	—
R. Glatzel	F	89	7.20	1	—	2	22	16%	—	—	—
Bakery Jatta	M	10	5.90	—	—	—	4	4%	—	—	1
P. Otele	F	13	5.70	—	—	—	1	1%	—	—	1