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Championship · Regular Season - 43 April 18, 2026 16:00
Wrexham
#14 · 10 pts
2 – 0
Final score
Stoke City
#7 · 13 pts
G. Thomason 31'
J. Windass 33'
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Wrexham a 40% win probability (draw 29%, Stoke City 30%). The final result was Wrexham 2–0 Stoke City. In 1 previous meetings, Wrexham have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Stoke City.

Match statistics
7
Total shots
4
4
Shots on target
0
1.48
Actual xG
0.35
0
Saves
1
53%
Possession
47%
2
Corners
6
16
Tackles
8
0
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
⚽G. Thomason
31'
⚽J. Windass
33'
46'
J. Rak-Sakyi / A. Cresswell ↕
47'
M. Manhoef
52'
R. Bozenik / S. Gallagher ↕
68'
T. Seko / L. Baker ↕
↕ O. Rathbone / L. O'Brien
73'
↕ J. Windass / N. Broadhead
78'
↕ S. Smith / K. Moore
79'
86'
R. Otegbayo / B. Lawal ↕
Pre-match prediction
40.5%
Wrexham ←
29.18%
X
30.32%
Stoke
we assigned to the actual result (Wrexham) 40.5% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Wrexham
1.07
1.48
+0.41
Stoke
1.27
0.35
-0.92
Wrexham dominated by xG (1.48 vs 0.35). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Swansea Swansea 8 17
2 West Ham West Ham 8 15
3 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 8 15
4 Wolves Wolves 7 14
5 West Brom West Brom 8 14
6 QPR QPR 8 13
7 Stoke City Stoke City 8 13
8 Bristol City Bristol City 8 13
9 Charlton Charlton 8 12
10 Birmingham Birmingham 8 11
11 Millwall Millwall 8 11
12 Lincoln Lincoln 8 11
13 Southampton Southampton 8 10
14 Wrexham Wrexham 8 10
15 Bolton Bolton 8 10
16 Blackburn Blackburn 8 9
17 Norwich Norwich 8 9
18 Sheffield Utd Sheffield Utd 8 9
19 Portsmouth Portsmouth 7 8
20 Watford Watford 8 8
21 Cardiff Cardiff 8 7
22 Derby Derby 8 5
23 Preston Preston 8 4
24 Burnley Burnley 8 4
Lineups
Wrexham Wrexham 5-3-2
21
G 7.20
14 George Thomason George Thomason 1 ⚽ D 8.30
2 C. Doyle C. Doyle D 7.50
24 Dan Scarr Dan Scarr D 7.30
5
D 6.90
12 I. Kaboré I. Kaboré D 6.60
20 O. Rathbone O. Rathbone 73' M 7.00
37 M. James M. James M 7.00
15 G. Dobson G. Dobson M 6.90
10 J. Windass J. Windass 1 ⚽ 78' F 7.30
28 S. Smith S. Smith 79' F 6.50
Bench
11 B. Cadamarteri B. Cadamarteri F
19 K. Moore K. Moore 18' F 6.50
4 M. Cleworth M. Cleworth D
33 N. Broadhead N. Broadhead 19' F 6.50
47 R. Longman R. Longman M
Stoke City Stoke City 4-2-3-1
31
G 6.30
17 E. Bocat E. Bocat D 5.90
3
A. Cresswell 45' D 5.70
18
86' D 6.50
7 S. Thomas S. Thomas D 6.20
8
L. Baker 68' M 6.50
4 B. Pearson B. Pearson M 7.70
29 L. Cissé L. Cissé M 6.30
10 Bae Jun-Ho Bae Jun-Ho M 6.70
42 M. Manhoef M. Manhoef M 5.70
20 S. Gallagher S. Gallagher 52' F 6.60
Bench
21 Jesurun Rak-Sakyi Jesurun Rak-Sakyi 52' F 6.70
11 R. Boženík R. Boženík 45' F 6.30
54
R. Otegbayo 11' M 6.70
50
Sydney Agina M
Best on the pitch
George Thomason
George Thomason
D · Wrexham
8.30
1 ⚽
2 shots · 61 pass
B. Pearson
B. Pearson
M · Stoke
7.70
· 43 pass
C. Doyle
C. Doyle
D · Wrexham
7.50
· 75 pass
Dan Scarr
Dan Scarr
D · Wrexham
7.30
· 40 pass
J. Windass
J. Windass
F · Wrexham
7.30
1 ⚽
3 shots · 27 pass
G · Wrexham
7.20
· 37 pass
Wrexham Wrexham — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 97 7.20 — — — 37 23% — — —
George Thomason D 97 8.30 1 — 2 61 54% 4 — —
C. Doyle D 97 7.50 — — — 75 60% 4 — —
Dan Scarr D 97 7.30 — — — 40 36% 1 — —
D 97 6.90 — — — 37 30% 1 — —
I. Kaboré D 97 6.60 — — — 15 15% 2 — —
O. Rathbone M 73 7.00 — — 1 26 23% 1 — —
M. James M 97 7.00 — — — 49 44% 1 — —
G. Dobson M 97 6.90 — — — 46 38% 2 — —
J. Windass F 78 7.30 1 — 3 27 26% — — —
S. Smith F 79 6.50 — — 1 19 9% — — —
K. Moore F 18 6.50 — — — 3 1% — — —
N. Broadhead F 19 6.50 — — — 4 3% — — —
Stoke City Stoke City — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 97 6.30 — — — 36 22% — — —
E. Bocat D 97 5.90 — — — 41 31% — — —
A. Cresswell D 45 5.70 — — — 16 13% — — —
D 86 6.50 — — — 33 25% — — —
S. Thomas D 97 6.20 — — — 46 38% — — —
L. Baker M 68 6.50 — — — 38 35% — — —
B. Pearson M 97 7.70 — — — 43 40% 1 — —
L. Cissé M 97 6.30 — — 3 21 15% 3 — —
Bae Jun-Ho M 97 6.70 — — — 24 18% — — —
M. Manhoef M 97 5.70 — — 1 25 17% 2 1 —
S. Gallagher F 52 6.60 — — — 9 3% 1 — —
Jesurun Rak-Sakyi F 52 6.70 — — — 13 12% 1 — —
R. Boženík F 45 6.30 — — — 11 7% — — —
R. Otegbayo M 11 6.70 — — — 6 3% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Wrexham vs Stoke City?
The final score was Wrexham 2–0 Stoke City.
What did the model predict before Wrexham vs Stoke City?
The model assigned 40% probability to a Wrexham win, 29% to a draw, and 30% to an Stoke City win.