Championship
· Regular Season - 43
April 18, 2026 16:00
G. Thomason
31'
J. Windass
33'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Wrexham a 40% win probability (draw 29%, Stoke City 30%). The final result was Wrexham 2–0 Stoke City. In 1 previous meetings, Wrexham have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Stoke City.
Match statistics
7
Total shots
4
4
Shots on target
0
1.48
Actual xG
0.35
0
Saves
1
53%
Possession
47%
2
Corners
6
16
Tackles
8
0
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
⚽G. Thomason
31'
⚽J. Windass
33'
46'
J. Rak-Sakyi
/
A. Cresswell
47'
M. Manhoef
52'
R. Bozenik
/
S. Gallagher
68'
T. Seko
/
L. Baker
O. Rathbone
/ L. O'Brien
73'
J. Windass
/ N. Broadhead
78'
S. Smith
/ K. Moore
79'
86'
R. Otegbayo
/
B. Lawal
Pre-match prediction
40.5%
Wrexham ←
29.18%
X
30.32%
Stoke
we assigned to the actual result (Wrexham)
40.5%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.07
1.48
+0.41
1.27
0.35
-0.92
Wrexham dominated by xG (1.48 vs 0.35).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
21
G
14
G. Thomason
1 ⚽
D
2
C. Doyle
D
C. Doyle
D
24
D. Scarr
D
5
D
12
I. Kaboré
D
I. Kaboré
D
20
Oliver Rathbone
73'
M
37
Matty James
M
15
G. Dobson
M
G. Dobson
M
10
J. Windass
1 ⚽
78'
F
J. Windass
1 ⚽
78'
F
28
S. Smith
79'
F
Bench
11
B. Cadamarteri
F
B. Cadamarteri
F
19
K. Moore
18'
F
K. Moore
18'
F
4
Max Cleworth
D
33
N. Broadhead
19'
F
N. Broadhead
19'
F
47
R. Longman
M
31
G
17
E. Bocat
D
3
A. Cresswell
45'
D
18
86'
D
7
S. Thomas
D
S. Thomas
D
8
L. Baker
68'
M
4
B. Pearson
M
B. Pearson
M
29
L. Cisse
M
10
Jun-Ho Bae
M
Jun-Ho Bae
M
42
M. Manhoef
M
20
S. Gallagher
52'
F
Bench
21
Jesurun Rak-Sakyi
52'
F
Jesurun Rak-Sakyi
52'
F
11
Róbert Boženík
45'
F
54
R. Otegbayo
11'
M
50
Sydney Agina
M
Best on the pitch
G. Thomason
D · Wrexham
8.30
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 61 pass
B. Pearson
M · Stoke
7.70
· 43 pass
C. Doyle
D · Wrexham
7.50
· 75 pass
D. Scarr
D · Wrexham
7.30
· 40 pass
J. Windass
F · Wrexham
7.30
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 27 pass
G · Wrexham
7.20
· 37 pass
Wrexham — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 97 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 37 | 23% | — | — | — | |
| G. Thomason | D | 97 | 8.30 | 1 | — | 2 | 61 | 54% | 4 | — | — |
| C. Doyle | D | 97 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 75 | 60% | 4 | — | — |
| D. Scarr | D | 97 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 40 | 36% | 1 | — | — |
| D | 97 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 37 | 30% | 1 | — | — | |
| I. Kaboré | D | 97 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 15 | 15% | 2 | — | — |
| Oliver Rathbone | M | 73 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 26 | 23% | 1 | — | — |
| Matty James | M | 97 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 49 | 44% | 1 | — | — |
| G. Dobson | M | 97 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 46 | 38% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Windass | F | 78 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 3 | 27 | 26% | — | — | — |
| S. Smith | F | 79 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 19 | 9% | — | — | — |
| K. Moore | F | 18 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 3 | 1% | — | — | — |
| N. Broadhead | F | 19 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 4 | 3% | — | — | — |
Stoke City — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 97 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 36 | 22% | — | — | — | |
| E. Bocat | D | 97 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 41 | 31% | — | — | — |
| A. Cresswell | D | 45 | 5.70 | — | — | — | 16 | 13% | — | — | — |
| D | 86 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 33 | 25% | — | — | — | |
| S. Thomas | D | 97 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 46 | 38% | — | — | — |
| L. Baker | M | 68 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 38 | 35% | — | — | — |
| B. Pearson | M | 97 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 43 | 40% | 1 | — | — |
| L. Cisse | M | 97 | 6.30 | — | — | 3 | 21 | 15% | 3 | — | — |
| Jun-Ho Bae | M | 97 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 24 | 18% | — | — | — |
| M. Manhoef | M | 97 | 5.70 | — | — | 1 | 25 | 17% | 2 | 1 | — |
| S. Gallagher | F | 52 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 9 | 3% | 1 | — | — |
| Jesurun Rak-Sakyi | F | 52 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 13 | 12% | 1 | — | — |
| Róbert Boženík | F | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 11 | 7% | — | — | — |
| R. Otegbayo | M | 11 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 6 | 3% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Wrexham vs Stoke City?
The final score was Wrexham 2–0 Stoke City.
What did the model predict before Wrexham vs Stoke City?
The model assigned 40% probability to a Wrexham win, 29% to a draw, and 30% to an Stoke City win.