Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 30 April 24, 2026 18:00 KGHM Zaglebie Arena, Lubin

Zaglebie Lubin

#1 · 3 pts

1 – 2

Final score

Nieciecza

✗Model wrong — prediction Zaglebie Lubin, result Nieciecza wins

M. Regula (ast. I. Orlikowski) 20'

60' (ast. J. Jimenez) D. Hilbrycht

90'+4 I. Durdov

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Zaglebie Lubin a 64% win probability (draw 22%, Nieciecza 12%). The final result was Zaglebie Lubin 1–2 Nieciecza. In 1 previous meetings, Zaglebie Lubin have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Nieciecza.

Match statistics

7

Total shots

11

2

Shots on target

8

0.60

Actual xG

1.65

6

Saves

1

42%

Possession

58%

6

Corners

4

16

Tackles

8

6

🟨 Yellow cards

2

1

🟥 Red cards

0

Match Events

M. Nalepa

10'

12'

D. Hilbrycht

15'

K. Zapolnik

⚽M. Regula · ast. I. Orlikowski

20'

M. Grzybek

37'

A. Radwanski

42'

46'

G. Isik / M. Matysik ↕

M. Regula

58'

60'

ast. J. Jimenez · D. Hilbrycht⚽

↕ M. Grzybek / L. Lucic

63'

↕ A. Radwanski / J. Sypek

64'

↕ M. Dziewiatowski / F. Kocaba

64'

64'

R. Kurzawa / M. Fassbender ↕

M. Regula

66'

M. Regula

66'

L. Lucic

76'

↕ L. Szabo / S. Kowalczyk

77'

78'

I. Durdov / J. Jimenez ↕

↕ D. Dabrowski / M. Kosidis

78'

83'

D. Biniek / I. Strzalek ↕

90'+4

I. Durdov⚽

Pre-match prediction

64.95%

Zaglebie

22.33%

X

12.72%

Nieciecza ←

✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Nieciecza) 12.72% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

Zaglebie

1.92

0.60

-1.32

Nieciecza

0.61

1.65

+1.04

Nieciecza dominated by xG (1.65 vs 0.60). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Zaglebie Lubin	1	3
2	Gornik Zabrze	1	3
3	Wisla Plock	1	3
4	Radomiak Radom	1	3
5	Wisla Krakow	1	3
6	Jagiellonia	1	3
7	Legia Warszawa	1	3
8	Motor Lublin	1	1
9	Widzew Łódź	1	1
10	Lech Poznan	1	1
11	Cracovia Krakow	1	1
12	Raków Częstochowa	1	0
13	GKS Katowice	1	0
14	Slask Wroclaw	1	0
15	Wieczysta Kraków	1	0
16	Pogon Szczecin	1	0
17	Korona Kielce	1	0
18	Piast Gliwice	1	0

Lineups

Zaglebie Lubin 4-1-3-2

1 Jasmin Burić G 7.30

16 Josip Ćorluka D 6.90

4

D 7.20

25 Michał Nalepa D 7.00

31 Igor Orlikowski 1 👟 D 6.20

8 Damian Dąbrowski 77' M 7.20

20 Mateusz Dziewiatowski 64' M 6.70

18 Adam Radwański 64' M 6.90

13 Mateusz Grzybek 63' M 6.20

17 Levente Szabó 77' F 7.30

44 Marcel Regula 1 ⚽ 66' F 6.90

Bench

39 Filip Kocaba 26' M 6.50

26 Jakub Kolan M

35 Luka Lučić 27' D 6.70

9 Michalis Kosidis 13' F 6.70

7 Sebastian Kowalczyk 13' M 7.00

Nieciecza 3-4-2-1

1

G 6.50

3 Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz D 7.20

5 Lucas Masoero D 6.00

32 Miłosz Matysik 45' D 6.30

21 D. Hilbrycht 1 ⚽ M 7.60

86 Igor Strzałek 83' M 6.90

28 M. Ambrosiewicz M 6.30

27 Radu Boboc M 6.20

9 Jesús Jiménez 1 👟 F 6.90

7 M. Faßbender 64' F 6.50

25 Kamil Zapolnik 78' F 5.90

Bench

17

D. Biniek 15' M 6.30

29 Isik Gabriel 45' D 6.90

19 Ivan Durdov 1 ⚽ 12' F 6.90

Best on the pitch

D. Hilbrycht

M · Nieciecza

7.60

1 ⚽

2 shots · 26 pass

Jasmin Burić

G · Zaglebie

7.30

· 29 pass

Levente Szabó

F · Zaglebie

7.30

1 shots · 19 pass

D · Zaglebie

7.20

· 27 pass

Damian Dąbrowski

M · Zaglebie

7.20

· 34 pass

Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz

D · Nieciecza

7.20

· 51 pass

Zaglebie Lubin — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Jasmin Burić	G	90	7.30	—	—	—	29	13%	—	—	—
Josip Ćorluka	D	90	6.90	—	—	—	24	13%	3	—	—
	D	90	7.20	—	—	—	27	21%	1	—	—
Michał Nalepa	D	90	7.00	—	—	3	32	20%	—	1	—
Igor Orlikowski	D	90	6.20	—	1	1	25	19%	2	—	—
Damian Dąbrowski	M	77	7.20	—	—	—	34	30%	1	—	—
Mateusz Dziewiatowski	M	64	6.70	—	—	—	19	14%	5	—	—
Adam Radwański	M	64	6.90	—	—	—	20	13%	—	1	—
Mateusz Grzybek	M	63	6.20	—	—	—	11	9%	2	1	—
Levente Szabó	F	77	7.30	—	—	1	19	9%	1	—	—
Marcel Regula	F	66	6.90	1	—	2	7	4%	—	2	1
Filip Kocaba	M	26	6.50	—	—	—	7	4%	—	—	—
Luka Lučić	D	27	6.70	—	—	—	12	9%	—	1	—
Michalis Kosidis	F	13	6.70	—	—	—	1	—	—	—	—
Sebastian Kowalczyk	M	13	7.00	—	—	—	4	4%	1	—	—

Nieciecza — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
	G	90	6.50	—	—	—	24	13%	—	—	—
Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz	D	90	7.20	—	—	—	51	44%	2	—	—
Lucas Masoero	D	90	6.00	—	—	—	36	32%	1	—	—
Miłosz Matysik	D	45	6.30	—	—	—	19	17%	2	—	—
D. Hilbrycht	M	90	7.60	1	—	2	26	22%	1	1	—
Igor Strzałek	M	83	6.90	—	—	2	30	24%	1	—	—
M. Ambrosiewicz	M	90	6.30	—	—	2	42	31%	—	—	—
Radu Boboc	M	90	6.20	—	—	—	34	27%	1	—	—
Jesús Jiménez	F	90	6.90	—	1	2	41	33%	—	—	—
M. Faßbender	F	64	6.50	—	—	—	13	9%	—	—	—
Kamil Zapolnik	F	78	5.90	—	—	—	17	10%	—	1	—
D. Biniek	M	15	6.30	—	—	—	5	5%	—	—	—
Isik Gabriel	D	45	6.90	—	—	1	33	31%	—	—	—
Ivan Durdov	F	12	6.90	1	—	2	—	—	—	—	—