Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 30 April 24, 2026 20:00

Zaglebie Lubin

#6 · 48 pts

1 – 2

Final score

Nieciecza

#18 · 28 pts

✗Model wrong — prediction Zaglebie Lubin, result Nieciecza vince

M. Regula (ast. I. Orlikowski) 20'

60' (ast. J. Jimenez) D. Hilbrycht

90'+4 I. Durdov

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Zaglebie Lubin a 64% win probability (draw 22%, Nieciecza 12%). The final result was Zaglebie Lubin 1–2 Nieciecza. In 1 previous meetings, Zaglebie Lubin have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Nieciecza.

Match statistics

7

Total shots

11

2

Shots on target

8

0.60

Actual xG

1.65

6

Saves

1

42%

Possession

58%

6

Corners

4

16

Tackles

8

6

🟨 Yellow cards

2

1

🟥 Red cards

0

Match Events

M. Nalepa

10'

12'

D. Hilbrycht

15'

K. Zapolnik

⚽M. Regula · ast. I. Orlikowski

20'

M. Grzybek

37'

A. Radwanski

42'

46'

G. Isik / M. Matysik ↕

M. Regula

58'

60'

ast. J. Jimenez · D. Hilbrycht⚽

↕ M. Grzybek / L. Lucic

63'

↕ A. Radwanski / J. Sypek

64'

↕ M. Dziewiatowski / F. Kocaba

64'

64'

R. Kurzawa / M. Fassbender ↕

M. Regula

66'

M. Regula

66'

L. Lucic

76'

↕ L. Szabo / S. Kowalczyk

77'

78'

I. Durdov / J. Jimenez ↕

↕ D. Dabrowski / M. Kosidis

78'

83'

D. Biniek / I. Strzalek ↕

90'+4

I. Durdov⚽

Pre-match prediction

64.95%

Zaglebie

22.33%

X

12.72%

Nieciecza ←

✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Nieciecza) 12.72% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

Zaglebie

1.92

0.60

-1.32

Nieciecza

0.61

1.65

+1.04

Nieciecza dominated by xG (1.65 vs 0.60). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Lech Poznan	32	56
2	Jagiellonia	32	52
3	Gornik Zabrze	32	50
4	Raków Częstochowa	32	49
5	GKS Katowice	32	48
6	Zaglebie Lubin	32	48
7	Wisla Plock	32	45
8	Radomiak Radom	32	44
9	Legia Warszawa	32	43
10	Motor Lublin	32	42
11	Pogon Szczecin	32	41
12	Piast Gliwice	32	41
13	Cracovia Krakow	32	40
14	Widzew Łódź	32	39
15	Korona Kielce	32	39
16	Lechia Gdansk	32	38
17	Arka Gdynia	32	36
18	Nieciecza	32	28

Lineups

Zaglebie Lubin 4-1-3-2

1 Jasmin Burić G 7.30

16 Josip Ćorluka D 6.90

4

D 7.20

25 Michał Nalepa D 7.00

31

I. Orlikowski 1 👟 D 6.20

8 Damian Dąbrowski 77' M 7.20

20 Mateusz Dziewiatowski 64' M 6.70

18 Adam Radwański 64' M 6.90

13 Mateusz Grzybek 63' M 6.20

17 Levente Szabó 77' F 7.30

44 Marcel Regula 1 ⚽ 66' F 6.90

Bench

39 Filip Kocaba 26' M 6.50

26 Jakub Kolan M

35 Luka Lučić 27' D 6.70

9 Michalis Kosidis 13' F 6.70

7 Sebastian Kowalczyk 13' M 7.00

Nieciecza 3-4-2-1

1

G 6.50

3 Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz D 7.20

5 Lucas Masoero D 6.00

32 Miłosz Matysik 45' D 6.30

21 Damian Hilbrycht 1 ⚽ M 7.60

86

I. Strzalek 83' M 6.90

28 Maciej Ambrosiewicz M 6.30

27 Radu Boboc M 6.20

9 Jesús Jiménez 1 👟 F 6.90

7 Morgan Fassbender 64' F 6.50

25 Kamil Zapolnik 78' F 5.90

Bench

17

D. Biniek 15' M 6.30

29 Isik Gabriel 45' D 6.90

19 Ivan Durdov 1 ⚽ 12' F 6.90

Best on the pitch

Damian Hilbrycht

M · Nieciecza

7.60

1 ⚽

2 shots · 26 pass

Jasmin Burić

G · Zaglebie

7.30

· 29 pass

Levente Szabó

F · Zaglebie

7.30

1 shots · 19 pass

D · Zaglebie

7.20

· 27 pass

Damian Dąbrowski

M · Zaglebie

7.20

· 34 pass

Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz

D · Nieciecza

7.20

· 51 pass

Zaglebie Lubin — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Jasmin Burić	G	90	7.30	—	—	—	29	13%	—	—	—
Josip Ćorluka	D	90	6.90	—	—	—	24	13%	3	—	—
	D	90	7.20	—	—	—	27	21%	1	—	—
Michał Nalepa	D	90	7.00	—	—	3	32	20%	—	1	—
I. Orlikowski	D	90	6.20	—	1	1	25	19%	2	—	—
Damian Dąbrowski	M	77	7.20	—	—	—	34	30%	1	—	—
Mateusz Dziewiatowski	M	64	6.70	—	—	—	19	14%	5	—	—
Adam Radwański	M	64	6.90	—	—	—	20	13%	—	1	—
Mateusz Grzybek	M	63	6.20	—	—	—	11	9%	2	1	—
Levente Szabó	F	77	7.30	—	—	1	19	9%	1	—	—
Marcel Regula	F	66	6.90	1	—	2	7	4%	—	2	1
Filip Kocaba	M	26	6.50	—	—	—	7	4%	—	—	—
Luka Lučić	D	27	6.70	—	—	—	12	9%	—	1	—
Michalis Kosidis	F	13	6.70	—	—	—	1	—	—	—	—
Sebastian Kowalczyk	M	13	7.00	—	—	—	4	4%	1	—	—

Nieciecza — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
	G	90	6.50	—	—	—	24	13%	—	—	—
Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz	D	90	7.20	—	—	—	51	44%	2	—	—
Lucas Masoero	D	90	6.00	—	—	—	36	32%	1	—	—
Miłosz Matysik	D	45	6.30	—	—	—	19	17%	2	—	—
Damian Hilbrycht	M	90	7.60	1	—	2	26	22%	1	1	—
I. Strzalek	M	83	6.90	—	—	2	30	24%	1	—	—
Maciej Ambrosiewicz	M	90	6.30	—	—	2	42	31%	—	—	—
Radu Boboc	M	90	6.20	—	—	—	34	27%	1	—	—
Jesús Jiménez	F	90	6.90	—	1	2	41	33%	—	—	—
Morgan Fassbender	F	64	6.50	—	—	—	13	9%	—	—	—
Kamil Zapolnik	F	78	5.90	—	—	—	17	10%	—	1	—
D. Biniek	M	15	6.30	—	—	—	5	5%	—	—	—
Isik Gabriel	D	45	6.90	—	—	1	33	31%	—	—	—
Ivan Durdov	F	12	6.90	1	—	2	—	—	—	—	—