Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 30 April 24, 2026 18:00 KGHM Zaglebie Arena, Lubin

Zaglebie Lubin

#7 · 12 pts

1 – 2

Final score

Nieciecza

✗Model wrong — prediction Zaglebie Lubin, result Nieciecza wins

M. Regula (ast. I. Orlikowski) 20'

60' (ast. J. Jimenez) D. Hilbrycht

90'+4 I. Durdov

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Zaglebie Lubin a 64% win probability (draw 22%, Nieciecza 12%). The final result was Zaglebie Lubin 1–2 Nieciecza. In 1 previous meetings, Zaglebie Lubin have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Nieciecza.

Match statistics

7

Total shots

11

2

Shots on target

8

0.60

Actual xG

1.65

6

Saves

1

42%

Possession

58%

6

Corners

4

16

Tackles

8

6

🟨 Yellow cards

2

1

🟥 Red cards

0

Match Events

M. Nalepa

10'

12'

D. Hilbrycht

15'

K. Zapolnik

⚽M. Regula · ast. I. Orlikowski

20'

M. Grzybek

37'

A. Radwanski

42'

46'

G. Isik / M. Matysik ↕

M. Regula

58'

60'

ast. J. Jimenez · D. Hilbrycht⚽

↕ M. Grzybek / L. Lucic

63'

↕ A. Radwanski / J. Sypek

64'

↕ M. Dziewiatowski / F. Kocaba

64'

64'

R. Kurzawa / M. Fassbender ↕

M. Regula

66'

M. Regula

66'

L. Lucic

76'

↕ L. Szabo / S. Kowalczyk

77'

78'

I. Durdov / J. Jimenez ↕

↕ D. Dabrowski / M. Kosidis

78'

83'

D. Biniek / I. Strzalek ↕

90'+4

I. Durdov⚽

Pre-match prediction

64.95%

Zaglebie

22.33%

X

12.72%

Nieciecza ←

✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Nieciecza) 12.72% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

Zaglebie

1.92

0.60

-1.32

Nieciecza

0.61

1.65

+1.04

Nieciecza dominated by xG (1.65 vs 0.60). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Gornik Zabrze	7	18
2	Legia Warszawa	8	16
3	Lech Poznan	7	16
4	Wisla Krakow	8	14
5	Pogon Szczecin	7	12
6	Korona Kielce	7	12
7	Zaglebie Lubin	7	12
8	Jagiellonia	7	12
9	Piast Gliwice	7	10
10	GKS Katowice	7	9
11	Widzew Łódź	8	8
12	Cracovia Krakow	8	8
13	Wisla Plock	7	8
14	Radomiak Radom	7	8
15	Slask Wroclaw	8	6
16	Motor Lublin	8	5
17	Wieczysta Kraków	7	4
18	Raków Częstochowa	7	3

Lineups

Zaglebie Lubin 4-1-3-2

1 J. Burić G 7.30

16 J. Ćorluka D 6.90

4

D 7.20

25 M. Nalepa D 7.00

31 I. Orlikowski 1 👟 D 6.20

8 D. Dąbrowski 77' M 7.20

20 M. Dziewiatowski 64' M 6.70

18 A. Radwański 64' M 6.90

13 M. Grzybek 63' M 6.20

17 Levente Szabó 77' F 7.30

44 M. Reguła 1 ⚽ 66' F 6.90

Bench

39 F. Kocaba 26' M 6.50

26 J. Kolan M

35 Luka Lučić 27' D 6.70

9 M. Kosidis 13' F 6.70

7 Sebastian Kowalczyk 13' M 7.00

Nieciecza 3-4-2-1

1

G 6.50

3 Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz D 7.20

5 Lucas Masoero D 6.00

32

M. Matysik 45' D 6.30

21 D. Hilbrycht 1 ⚽ M 7.60

86 Igor Strzałek 83' M 6.90

28 M. Ambrosiewicz M 6.30

27 Radu Boboc M 6.20

9 Jesús Jiménez 1 👟 F 6.90

7 M. Faßbender 64' F 6.50

25 Kamil Zapolnik 78' F 5.90

Bench

17

D. Biniek 15' M 6.30

29 Isik Gabriel 45' D 6.90

19 Ivan Durdov 1 ⚽ 12' F 6.90

Best on the pitch

D. Hilbrycht

M · Nieciecza

7.60

1 ⚽

2 shots · 26 pass

J. Burić

G · Zaglebie

7.30

· 29 pass

Levente Szabó

F · Zaglebie

7.30

1 shots · 19 pass

D · Zaglebie

7.20

· 27 pass

D. Dąbrowski

M · Zaglebie

7.20

· 34 pass

Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz

D · Nieciecza

7.20

· 51 pass

Zaglebie Lubin — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
J. Burić	G	90	7.30	—	—	—	29	13%	—	—	—
J. Ćorluka	D	90	6.90	—	—	—	24	13%	3	—	—
	D	90	7.20	—	—	—	27	21%	1	—	—
M. Nalepa	D	90	7.00	—	—	3	32	20%	—	1	—
I. Orlikowski	D	90	6.20	—	1	1	25	19%	2	—	—
D. Dąbrowski	M	77	7.20	—	—	—	34	30%	1	—	—
M. Dziewiatowski	M	64	6.70	—	—	—	19	14%	5	—	—
A. Radwański	M	64	6.90	—	—	—	20	13%	—	1	—
M. Grzybek	M	63	6.20	—	—	—	11	9%	2	1	—
Levente Szabó	F	77	7.30	—	—	1	19	9%	1	—	—
M. Reguła	F	66	6.90	1	—	2	7	4%	—	2	1
F. Kocaba	M	26	6.50	—	—	—	7	4%	—	—	—
Luka Lučić	D	27	6.70	—	—	—	12	9%	—	1	—
M. Kosidis	F	13	6.70	—	—	—	1	—	—	—	—
Sebastian Kowalczyk	M	13	7.00	—	—	—	4	4%	1	—	—

Nieciecza — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
	G	90	6.50	—	—	—	24	13%	—	—	—
Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz	D	90	7.20	—	—	—	51	44%	2	—	—
Lucas Masoero	D	90	6.00	—	—	—	36	32%	1	—	—
M. Matysik	D	45	6.30	—	—	—	19	17%	2	—	—
D. Hilbrycht	M	90	7.60	1	—	2	26	22%	1	1	—
Igor Strzałek	M	83	6.90	—	—	2	30	24%	1	—	—
M. Ambrosiewicz	M	90	6.30	—	—	2	42	31%	—	—	—
Radu Boboc	M	90	6.20	—	—	—	34	27%	1	—	—
Jesús Jiménez	F	90	6.90	—	1	2	41	33%	—	—	—
M. Faßbender	F	64	6.50	—	—	—	13	9%	—	—	—
Kamil Zapolnik	F	78	5.90	—	—	—	17	10%	—	1	—
D. Biniek	M	15	6.30	—	—	—	5	5%	—	—	—
Isik Gabriel	D	45	6.90	—	—	1	33	31%	—	—	—
Ivan Durdov	F	12	6.90	1	—	2	—	—	—	—	—