Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 30 April 24, 2026 18:00 Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Lubin

Zaglebie Lubin

#7 · 19 pts

1 – 2

Final score

Nieciecza

✗Model wrong — prediction Zaglebie Lubin, result Nieciecza wins

M. Regula (ast. I. Orlikowski) 20'

60' (ast. J. Jimenez) D. Hilbrycht

90'+4 I. Durdov

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Zaglebie Lubin a 64% win probability (draw 22%, Nieciecza 12%). The final result was Zaglebie Lubin 1–2 Nieciecza. In 1 previous meetings, Zaglebie Lubin have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Nieciecza.

Match statistics

7

Total shots

11

2

Shots on target

8

0.60

Actual xG

1.65

6

Saves

1

42%

Possession

58%

6

Corners

4

16

Tackles

8

6

🟨 Yellow cards

2

1

🟥 Red cards

0

Match Events

M. Nalepa

10'

12'

D. Hilbrycht

15'

K. Zapolnik

⚽M. Regula · ast. I. Orlikowski

20'

M. Grzybek

37'

A. Radwanski

42'

46'

G. Isik / M. Matysik ↕

M. Regula

58'

60'

ast. J. Jimenez · D. Hilbrycht⚽

↕ M. Grzybek / L. Lucic

63'

↕ A. Radwanski / J. Sypek

64'

↕ M. Dziewiatowski / F. Kocaba

64'

64'

R. Kurzawa / M. Fassbender ↕

M. Regula

66'

M. Regula

66'

L. Lucic

76'

↕ L. Szabo / S. Kowalczyk

77'

78'

I. Durdov / J. Jimenez ↕

↕ D. Dabrowski / M. Kosidis

78'

83'

D. Biniek / I. Strzalek ↕

90'+4

I. Durdov⚽

Pre-match prediction

64.95%

Zaglebie

22.33%

X

12.72%

Nieciecza ←

✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Nieciecza) 12.72% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

Zaglebie

1.92

0.60

-1.32

Nieciecza

0.61

1.65

+1.04

Nieciecza dominated by xG (1.65 vs 0.60). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Lech Poznan	11	28
2	Gornik Zabrze	12	27
3	Pogon Szczecin	11	24
4	Legia Warszawa	12	23
5	Wisla Krakow	12	21
6	Piast Gliwice	12	20
7	Zaglebie Lubin	12	19
8	GKS Katowice	12	18
9	Korona Kielce	12	18
10	Jagiellonia	11	15
11	Wisla Plock	11	14
12	Motor Lublin	12	13
13	Cracovia Krakow	12	12
14	Widzew Łódź	12	11
15	Slask Wroclaw	12	9
16	Wieczysta Kraków	12	8
17	Radomiak Radom	12	8
18	Raków Częstochowa	12	6

Lineups

Zaglebie Lubin 4-1-3-2

1 J. Burić G 7.30

16 J. Ćorluka D 6.90

4

D 7.20

25 M. Nalepa D 7.00

31 I. Orlikowski 1 👟 D 6.20

8 D. Dąbrowski 77' M 7.20

20 M. Dziewiatowski 64' M 6.70

18 A. Radwański 64' M 6.90

13 M. Grzybek 63' M 6.20

17 Levente Szabó 77' F 7.30

44 M. Reguła 1 ⚽ 66' F 6.90

Bench

39 F. Kocaba 26' M 6.50

26 J. Kolan M

35 Luka Lučić 27' D 6.70

9 M. Kosidis 13' F 6.70

7 Sebastian Kowalczyk 13' M 7.00

Nieciecza 3-4-2-1

1

G 6.50

3 Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz D 7.20

5 Lucas Masoero D 6.00

32

M. Matysik 45' D 6.30

21 D. Hilbrycht 1 ⚽ M 7.60

86 Igor Strzałek 83' M 6.90

28 M. Ambrosiewicz M 6.30

27 Radu Boboc M 6.20

9 Jesús Jiménez 1 👟 F 6.90

7 M. Faßbender 64' F 6.50

25 Kamil Zapolnik 78' F 5.90

Bench

17

D. Biniek 15' M 6.30

29 Isik Gabriel 45' D 6.90

19 Ivan Durdov 1 ⚽ 12' F 6.90

Best on the pitch

D. Hilbrycht

M · Nieciecza

7.60

1 ⚽

2 shots · 26 pass

J. Burić

G · Zaglebie

7.30

· 29 pass

Levente Szabó

F · Zaglebie

7.30

1 shots · 19 pass

D · Zaglebie

7.20

· 27 pass

D. Dąbrowski

M · Zaglebie

7.20

· 34 pass

Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz

D · Nieciecza

7.20

· 51 pass

Zaglebie Lubin — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
J. Burić	G	90	7.30	—	—	—	29	13%	—	—	—
J. Ćorluka	D	90	6.90	—	—	—	24	13%	3	—	—
	D	90	7.20	—	—	—	27	21%	1	—	—
M. Nalepa	D	90	7.00	—	—	3	32	20%	—	1	—
I. Orlikowski	D	90	6.20	—	1	1	25	19%	2	—	—
D. Dąbrowski	M	77	7.20	—	—	—	34	30%	1	—	—
M. Dziewiatowski	M	64	6.70	—	—	—	19	14%	5	—	—
A. Radwański	M	64	6.90	—	—	—	20	13%	—	1	—
M. Grzybek	M	63	6.20	—	—	—	11	9%	2	1	—
Levente Szabó	F	77	7.30	—	—	1	19	9%	1	—	—
M. Reguła	F	66	6.90	1	—	2	7	4%	—	2	1
F. Kocaba	M	26	6.50	—	—	—	7	4%	—	—	—
Luka Lučić	D	27	6.70	—	—	—	12	9%	—	1	—
M. Kosidis	F	13	6.70	—	—	—	1	—	—	—	—
Sebastian Kowalczyk	M	13	7.00	—	—	—	4	4%	1	—	—

Nieciecza — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
	G	90	6.50	—	—	—	24	13%	—	—	—
Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz	D	90	7.20	—	—	—	51	44%	2	—	—
Lucas Masoero	D	90	6.00	—	—	—	36	32%	1	—	—
M. Matysik	D	45	6.30	—	—	—	19	17%	2	—	—
D. Hilbrycht	M	90	7.60	1	—	2	26	22%	1	1	—
Igor Strzałek	M	83	6.90	—	—	2	30	24%	1	—	—
M. Ambrosiewicz	M	90	6.30	—	—	2	42	31%	—	—	—
Radu Boboc	M	90	6.20	—	—	—	34	27%	1	—	—
Jesús Jiménez	F	90	6.90	—	1	2	41	33%	—	—	—
M. Faßbender	F	64	6.50	—	—	—	13	9%	—	—	—
Kamil Zapolnik	F	78	5.90	—	—	—	17	10%	—	1	—
D. Biniek	M	15	6.30	—	—	—	5	5%	—	—	—
Isik Gabriel	D	45	6.90	—	—	1	33	31%	—	—	—
Ivan Durdov	F	12	6.90	1	—	2	—	—	—	—	—