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← Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.

Zambia - Burundi

Africa Cup of Nations - Qual. November 11, 2026 18:00
Zambia
#2 · 3 pts
vs
Burundi
#4 · 1 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
32.91%
Win
Zambia
34.94%
Draw
32.16%
Win
Burundi
0.74
Expected xG
0.73

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–0 (15.56%)
1X2 Result
1 33%
X 35%
2 32%
Double Chance
1X 68%
X2 67%
12 65%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 78%
✓ 77.1% hit rate (48 picks)
Over 2.5 56%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Zambia a 32% win probability, against 34% for a draw and 32% for Burundi. Expected goals are 0.7 for Zambia and 0.7 for Burundi (total 1.5), with a 78% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 15.56% probability.

Season Stats

Zambia
1W 0D 1L
Burundi
2W 1D 1L
Averages per game
1.5
Goals
2.5
1.5
Conceded
0.8
3.0
Shots OT
4.0
5.5
Corners
6.0
36%
Poss.
39%
Percentages
100%
O 1.5
75%
50%
O 2.5
75%
50%
BTTS
25%
50%
Clean Sht
50%
ℹ Based on the last 4 matches in Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
25%
O 3.5
0%
BTTS
Zambia
1W 0D 0L · at home
Burundi
1W 0D 1L · away
2.0
gls/g
2.0
0.0
Conceded
0.5
100%
Win %
50%
100%
Win or Draw
50%
100%
O 1.5
50%
0%
O 2.5
50%
0%
O 3.5
50%
0%
BTTS
0%
100%
Clean Sht
50%
0%
Failed to Score
50%
last 2
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Zambia Burundi →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 22.9% 16.7% 6.1% 1.5% 0.3% —
1 17.0% 12.4% 4.5% 1.1% 0.2% —
2 6.3% 4.6% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% —
3 1.6% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% — —
4 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% — — —
5 — — — — — —

Recent form

Zambia Zambia
W Togo 2–0
L Algeria 3–1
Home clean sheet (120 days) 37%
Burundi Burundi
D Algeria 2–2
L Togo 1–0
W Chad 4–0
W Chad 0–4
Away clean sheet (120 days) 23%

Playing profile

Zambia Zambia
Attack
25
Defence
63
Form
33
Burundi Burundi
Attack
42
Defence
64
Form
20
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Group I

# Team G Pts
1 Algeria Algeria 2 4
2 Zambia Zambia 2 3
3 Togo Togo 2 3
4 Burundi Burundi 2 1

What's at stake · Group I

Top 2 advance to the next round

Zambia Burundi
Current #2 #4
→ Zambia #1 #4
→ Draw #2 #4
→ Burundi #3 #2

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Zambia vs Burundi?
The model gives Zambia a 32% win probability, 34% for a draw, and 32% for an Burundi win.
How many goals are expected in Zambia vs Burundi?
Expected goals: Zambia 0.7, Burundi 0.7 (total 1.5). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 78%.
What is the most likely score in Zambia vs Burundi?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 15.56%.