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← Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.

Zimbabwe - Equatorial Guinea

Africa Cup of Nations - Qual. November 15, 2026 18:00
Zimbabwe
#2 · 3 pts
vs
Equatorial Guinea
#3 · 3 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
54.39%
Win
Zimbabwe
34.15%
Draw
11.46%
Win
Equatorial Guinea
1.04
Expected xG
0.3

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–0 (27.64%)
1X2 Result
1 54%
X 34%
2 11%
Double Chance
1X 89%
X2 46%
12 66%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 79%
✓ 77.1% hit rate (48 picks)
Over 2.5 58%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Zimbabwe a 54% win probability, against 34% for a draw and 11% for Equatorial Guinea. Expected goals are 1.0 for Zimbabwe and 0.3 for Equatorial Guinea (total 1.3), with a 79% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 27.64% probability.

Season Stats

Zimbabwe
1W 0D 1L
Equatorial Guinea
1W 0D 1L
Averages per game
2.0
Goals
0.5
2.0
Conceded
1.0
5.0
Shots OT
2.0
5.0
Corners
2.5
53%
Poss.
41%
Percentages
100%
O 1.5
50%
100%
O 2.5
0%
100%
BTTS
0%
0%
Clean Sht
50%
ℹ Based on the last 2 matches in Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Score Matrix

↕ Zimbabwe Equatorial Guinea →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 26.1% 7.8% 1.2% 0.1% — —
1 27.2% 8.2% 1.2% 0.1% — —
2 14.2% 4.3% 0.6% 0.1% — —
3 4.9% 1.5% 0.2% — — —
4 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% — — —
5 0.3% 0.1% — — — —

Recent form

Zimbabwe Zimbabwe
L Congo DR 1–2
W Sierra Leone 2–3
Home clean sheet (120 days) 23%
Equatorial Guinea Equatorial Guinea
W Sierra Leone 1–0
L Congo DR 2–0
Away clean sheet (120 days) 23%

Playing profile

Zimbabwe Zimbabwe
Attack
40
Defence
68
Form
43
Equatorial Guinea Equatorial Guinea
Attack
16
Defence
74
Form
24
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Group E

# Team G Pts
1 Congo DR Congo DR 2 6
2 Zimbabwe Zimbabwe 2 3
3 Equatorial Guinea Equatorial Guinea 2 3
4 Sierra Leone Sierra Leone 2 0

What's at stake · Group E

Top 2 advance to the next round

Zimbabwe Equatorial Guinea
Current #2 #3
→ Zimbabwe #2 #3
→ Draw #2 #3
→ Equatorial Guinea #3 #2

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Zimbabwe vs Equatorial Guinea?
The model gives Zimbabwe a 54% win probability, 34% for a draw, and 11% for an Equatorial Guinea win.
How many goals are expected in Zimbabwe vs Equatorial Guinea?
Expected goals: Zimbabwe 1.0, Equatorial Guinea 0.3 (total 1.3). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 79%.
What is the most likely score in Zimbabwe vs Equatorial Guinea?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 27.64%.