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Championship · Regular Season - 42 April 11, 2026 16:00
Southampton
#4 · 80 pts
2 – 1
Final score
Derby
#8 · 69 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Southampton
L. Scienza (ast. F. Azaz) 62'
T. Harwood-Bellis (ast. R. Manning) 69'
38' C. Morris

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Southampton a 58% win probability (draw 22%, Derby 19%). The final result was Southampton 2–1 Derby. In 1 previous meetings, Southampton have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Derby.

Match statistics
12
Total shots
6
5
Shots on target
4
1.64
Actual xG
0.91
3
Saves
3
62%
Possession
38%
6
Corners
2
20
Tackles
22
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
9'
O. Fraulo / B. Clark ↕
38'
C. Morris⚽
53'
D. Sanderson
55'
O. Fraulo
⚽L. Scienza · ast. F. Azaz
62'
↕ R. Stewart / C. Larin
64'
↕ T. Fellows / K. Matsuki
64'
66'
O. Eames / J. Banel ↕
67'
S. Langas / D. Ozoh ↕
67'
C. Forsyth / M. Johnston ↕
⚽T. Harwood-Bellis · ast. R. Manning
69'
↕ L. Scienza / S. Edozie
75'
↕ F. Azaz / S. Charles
75'
84'
L. Salvesen / L. Travis ↕
↕ J. Bree / N. Wood
87'
C. Larin
90'+3
Pre-match prediction
58.26%
Southampton ←
22.43%
X
19.31%
Derby
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Southampton) 58.26% (medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Southampton
2.03
1.64
-0.39
Derby
1.32
0.91
-0.41
Southampton dominated by xG (1.64 vs 0.91). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Coventry Coventry 46 95
2 Ipswich Ipswich 46 84
3 Millwall Millwall 46 83
4 Southampton Southampton 46 80
5 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 46 80
6 Hull City Hull City 46 73
7 Wrexham Wrexham 46 71
8 Derby Derby 46 69
9 Norwich Norwich 46 65
10 Birmingham Birmingham 46 64
11 Swansea Swansea 46 64
12 Bristol City Bristol City 46 62
13 Sheffield Utd Sheffield Utd 46 60
14 Preston Preston 46 60
15 QPR QPR 46 58
16 Watford Watford 46 57
17 Stoke City Stoke City 46 55
18 Portsmouth Portsmouth 46 55
19 Charlton Charlton 46 53
20 Blackburn Blackburn 46 52
21 West Brom West Brom 46 51
22 Oxford United Oxford United 46 47
23 Leicester Leicester 46 46
24 Sheffield Wednesday Sheffield Wednesday 46 0
Lineups
Southampton Southampton 4-2-3-1
41
G 7.90
3 Ryan Manning Ryan Manning 1 👟 D 8.00
5 Jack Stephens Jack Stephens D 7.30
6 Taylor Harwood-Bellis Taylor Harwood-Bellis 1 ⚽ D 8.90
14 James Bree James Bree 87' D 6.30
4 F. Downes F. Downes M 7.70
20 Caspar Jander Caspar Jander M 7.90
13 Léo Scienza Léo Scienza 1 ⚽ 75' M 8.90
10 F. Azaz F. Azaz 1 👟 75' M 7.30
18 Tom Fellows Tom Fellows 64' M 6.20
11 Ross Stewart Ross Stewart 64' F 6.50
Bench
19 Cameron Archer Cameron Archer F
48 Cameron Bragg Cameron Bragg M
9 C. Larin C. Larin 26' F 6.00
27 Kuryu Matsuki Kuryu Matsuki 26' M 6.90
23 Samuel Edozie Samuel Edozie 15' M 6.70
24 Shea Charles Shea Charles 15' M 6.60
34 Welington Welington D
Derby Derby 4-2-3-1
12
G 7.20
22 M. Johnston M. Johnston 67' D 6.30
5
M. Clarke D 6.90
28
D. Sanderson D 6.20
23
D 6.60
18
D. Ozoh 67' M 6.70
27 L. Travis L. Travis 84' M 7.00
42
B. Clark 9' M 6.70
19
S. Szmodics M 6.70
34
J. Banel 66' M 6.50
9 C. Morris C. Morris 1 ⚽ F 7.50
Bench
3
C. Forsyth 23' D 6.20
29
O. Fraulo 81' M 6.70
6
S. Langas 23' D 6.30
Best on the pitch
Taylor Harwood-Bellis
Taylor Harwood-Bellis
D · Southampton
8.90
1 ⚽
2 shots · 53 pass
Léo Scienza
Léo Scienza
M · Southampton
8.90
1 ⚽
2 shots · 26 pass
Ryan Manning
Ryan Manning
D · Southampton
8.00
1 👟
1 shots · 47 pass
G · Southampton
7.90
· 33 pass
Caspar Jander
Caspar Jander
M · Southampton
7.90
· 63 pass
F. Downes
F. Downes
M · Southampton
7.70
· 51 pass
Southampton Southampton — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 7.90 — — — 33 22% — — —
Ryan Manning D 90 8.00 — 1 1 47 38% 2 — —
Jack Stephens D 90 7.30 — — — 45 42% 1 — —
Taylor Harwood-Bellis D 90 8.90 1 — 2 53 48% — — —
James Bree D 87 6.30 — — 1 32 31% 1 — —
F. Downes M 90 7.70 — — — 51 45% 2 — —
Caspar Jander M 90 7.90 — — — 63 55% 6 — —
Léo Scienza M 75 8.90 1 — 2 26 20% 1 — —
F. Azaz M 75 7.30 — 1 3 29 22% 5 — —
Tom Fellows M 64 6.20 — — 1 23 20% 1 — —
Ross Stewart F 64 6.50 — — — 16 11% — — —
C. Larin F 26 6.00 — — 1 14 10% — 1 —
Kuryu Matsuki M 26 6.90 — — — 16 13% — — —
Samuel Edozie M 15 6.70 — — 1 3 2% 1 — —
Shea Charles M 15 6.60 — — — 9 7% — — —
Derby Derby — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 7.20 — — — 35 24% — — —
M. Johnston D 67 6.30 — — 1 10 6% 2 — —
M. Clarke D 90 6.90 — — — 42 30% 5 — —
D. Sanderson D 90 6.20 — — — 25 21% 2 1 —
D 90 6.60 — — — 29 23% 1 — —
D. Ozoh M 67 6.70 — — — 12 10% 3 — —
L. Travis M 84 7.00 — — — 33 29% 5 — —
B. Clark M 9 6.70 — — — 2 1% — — —
S. Szmodics M 90 6.70 — — 2 14 12% — — —
J. Banel M 66 6.50 — — 1 13 11% — — —
C. Morris F 90 7.50 1 — 2 22 14% — — —
C. Forsyth D 23 6.20 — — — 18 8% — — —
O. Fraulo M 81 6.70 — — — 20 15% 2 1 —
S. Langas D 23 6.30 — — — 11 9% 2 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Southampton vs Derby?
The final score was Southampton 2–1 Derby.
What did the model predict before Southampton vs Derby?
The model assigned 58% probability to a Southampton win, 22% to a draw, and 19% to an Derby win.