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Championship · Regular Season - 42 April 11, 2026 16:00 St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton
Southampton
#13 · 10 pts
2 – 1
Final score
Derby
#22 · 5 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Southampton
L. Scienza (ast. F. Azaz) 62'
T. Harwood-Bellis (ast. R. Manning) 69'
38' C. Morris
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Southampton a 58% win probability (draw 22%, Derby 19%). The final result was Southampton 2–1 Derby. In 1 previous meetings, Southampton have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Derby.

Match statistics
12
Total shots
6
5
Shots on target
4
1.64
Actual xG
0.91
3
Saves
3
62%
Possession
38%
6
Corners
2
20
Tackles
22
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
9'
O. Fraulo / B. Clark ↕
38'
C. Morris⚽
53'
D. Sanderson
55'
O. Fraulo
⚽L. Scienza · ast. F. Azaz
62'
↕ R. Stewart / C. Larin
64'
↕ T. Fellows / K. Matsuki
64'
66'
O. Eames / J. Banel ↕
67'
S. Langas / D. Ozoh ↕
67'
C. Forsyth / M. Johnston ↕
⚽T. Harwood-Bellis · ast. R. Manning
69'
↕ L. Scienza / S. Edozie
75'
↕ F. Azaz / S. Charles
75'
84'
L. Salvesen / L. Travis ↕
↕ J. Bree / N. Wood
87'
C. Larin
90'+3
Pre-match prediction
58.26%
Southampton ←
22.43%
X
19.31%
Derby
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Southampton) 58.26% (medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Southampton
2.03
1.64
-0.39
Derby
1.32
0.91
-0.41
Southampton dominated by xG (1.64 vs 0.91). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Swansea Swansea 8 17
2 West Ham West Ham 8 15
3 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 8 15
4 Wolves Wolves 7 14
5 West Brom West Brom 8 14
6 QPR QPR 8 13
7 Stoke City Stoke City 8 13
8 Bristol City Bristol City 8 13
9 Charlton Charlton 8 12
10 Birmingham Birmingham 8 11
11 Millwall Millwall 8 11
12 Lincoln Lincoln 8 11
13 Southampton Southampton 8 10
14 Wrexham Wrexham 8 10
15 Bolton Bolton 8 10
16 Blackburn Blackburn 8 9
17 Norwich Norwich 8 9
18 Sheffield Utd Sheffield Utd 8 9
19 Portsmouth Portsmouth 7 8
20 Watford Watford 8 8
21 Cardiff Cardiff 8 7
22 Derby Derby 8 5
23 Preston Preston 8 4
24 Burnley Burnley 8 4
Lineups
Southampton Southampton 4-2-3-1
41
G 7.90
3 R. Manning R. Manning 1 👟 D 8.00
5 J. Stephens J. Stephens D 7.30
6 T. Harwood-Bellis T. Harwood-Bellis 1 ⚽ D 8.90
14 J. Bree J. Bree 87' D 6.30
4 F. Downes F. Downes M 7.70
20 Caspar Jander Caspar Jander M 7.90
13 Léo Scienza Léo Scienza 1 ⚽ 75' M 8.90
10 F. Azaz F. Azaz 1 👟 75' M 7.30
18 T. Fellows T. Fellows 64' M 6.20
11 Ross Stewart Ross Stewart 64' F 6.50
Bench
48 Cameron Bragg Cameron Bragg M
19 C. Archer C. Archer F
9 Cyle Larin Cyle Larin 26' F 6.00
27 Kuryu Matsuki Kuryu Matsuki 26' M 6.90
24 S. Charles S. Charles 15' M 6.60
23 S. Edozie S. Edozie 15' M 6.70
34 Welington Welington D
Derby Derby 4-2-3-1
12
G 7.20
22 M. Johnston M. Johnston 67' D 6.30
5 Matt Clarke Matt Clarke D 6.90
28 D. Sanderson D. Sanderson D 6.20
23
D 6.60
18 D. Ozoh D. Ozoh 67' M 6.70
27 L. Travis L. Travis 84' M 7.00
42 B. Clark B. Clark 9' M 6.70
19 S. Szmodics S. Szmodics M 6.70
34
J. Banel 66' M 6.50
9 C. Morris C. Morris 1 ⚽ F 7.50
Bench
3 C. Forsyth C. Forsyth 23' D 6.20
29 O. Fraulo O. Fraulo 81' M 6.70
6 S. Langås S. Langås 23' D 6.30
Best on the pitch
T. Harwood-Bellis
T. Harwood-Bellis
D · Southampton
8.90
1 ⚽
2 shots · 53 pass
Léo Scienza
Léo Scienza
M · Southampton
8.90
1 ⚽
2 shots · 26 pass
R. Manning
R. Manning
D · Southampton
8.00
1 👟
1 shots · 47 pass
G · Southampton
7.90
· 33 pass
Caspar Jander
Caspar Jander
M · Southampton
7.90
· 63 pass
F. Downes
F. Downes
M · Southampton
7.70
· 51 pass
Southampton Southampton — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 7.90 — — — 33 22% — — —
R. Manning D 90 8.00 — 1 1 47 38% 2 — —
J. Stephens D 90 7.30 — — — 45 42% 1 — —
T. Harwood-Bellis D 90 8.90 1 — 2 53 48% — — —
J. Bree D 87 6.30 — — 1 32 31% 1 — —
F. Downes M 90 7.70 — — — 51 45% 2 — —
Caspar Jander M 90 7.90 — — — 63 55% 6 — —
Léo Scienza M 75 8.90 1 — 2 26 20% 1 — —
F. Azaz M 75 7.30 — 1 3 29 22% 5 — —
T. Fellows M 64 6.20 — — 1 23 20% 1 — —
Ross Stewart F 64 6.50 — — — 16 11% — — —
Cyle Larin F 26 6.00 — — 1 14 10% — 1 —
Kuryu Matsuki M 26 6.90 — — — 16 13% — — —
S. Charles M 15 6.60 — — — 9 7% — — —
S. Edozie M 15 6.70 — — 1 3 2% 1 — —
Derby Derby — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 7.20 — — — 35 24% — — —
M. Johnston D 67 6.30 — — 1 10 6% 2 — —
Matt Clarke D 90 6.90 — — — 42 30% 5 — —
D. Sanderson D 90 6.20 — — — 25 21% 2 1 —
D 90 6.60 — — — 29 23% 1 — —
D. Ozoh M 67 6.70 — — — 12 10% 3 — —
L. Travis M 84 7.00 — — — 33 29% 5 — —
B. Clark M 9 6.70 — — — 2 1% — — —
S. Szmodics M 90 6.70 — — 2 14 12% — — —
J. Banel M 66 6.50 — — 1 13 11% — — —
C. Morris F 90 7.50 1 — 2 22 14% — — —
C. Forsyth D 23 6.20 — — — 18 8% — — —
O. Fraulo M 81 6.70 — — — 20 15% 2 1 —
S. Langås D 23 6.30 — — — 11 9% 2 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Southampton vs Derby?
The final score was Southampton 2–1 Derby.
What did the model predict before Southampton vs Derby?
The model assigned 58% probability to a Southampton win, 22% to a draw, and 19% to an Derby win.