✓Model correct — prediction Southampton
L. Scienza
(ast. F. Azaz)
62'
T. Harwood-Bellis
(ast. R. Manning)
69'
38'
C. Morris
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Southampton a 58% win probability (draw 22%, Derby 19%). The final result was Southampton 2–1 Derby. In 1 previous meetings, Southampton have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Derby.
Match statistics
12
Total shots
6
5
Shots on target
4
1.64
Actual xG
0.91
3
Saves
3
62%
Possession
38%
6
Corners
2
20
Tackles
22
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
9'
O. Fraulo
/
B. Clark
38'
C. Morris⚽
53'
D. Sanderson
55'
O. Fraulo
⚽L. Scienza
· ast. F. Azaz
62'
R. Stewart
/ C. Larin
64'
T. Fellows
/ K. Matsuki
64'
66'
O. Eames
/
J. Banel
67'
S. Langas
/
D. Ozoh
67'
C. Forsyth
/
M. Johnston
⚽T. Harwood-Bellis
· ast. R. Manning
69'
L. Scienza
/ S. Edozie
75'
F. Azaz
/ S. Charles
75'
84'
L. Salvesen
/
L. Travis
J. Bree
/ N. Wood
87'
C. Larin
90'+3
Pre-match prediction
58.26%
Southampton ←
22.43%
X
19.31%
Derby
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Southampton)
58.26%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.03
1.64
-0.39
1.32
0.91
-0.41
Southampton dominated by xG (1.64 vs 0.91).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
41
G
3
R. Manning
1 👟
D
R. Manning
1 👟
D
5
Jack Stephens
D
Jack Stephens
D
6
Taylor Harwood-Bellis
1 ⚽
D
Taylor Harwood-Bellis
1 ⚽
D
14
James Bree
87'
D
James Bree
87'
D
4
F. Downes
M
F. Downes
M
20
Caspar Jander
M
Caspar Jander
M
13
Léo Scienza
1 ⚽
75'
M
Léo Scienza
1 ⚽
75'
M
10
F. Azaz
1 👟
75'
M
F. Azaz
1 👟
75'
M
18
T. Fellows
64'
M
T. Fellows
64'
M
11
Ross Stewart
64'
F
Ross Stewart
64'
F
Bench
19
Cameron Archer
F
Cameron Archer
F
48
Cameron Bragg
M
Cameron Bragg
M
9
Cyle Larin
26'
F
Cyle Larin
26'
F
27
K. Matsuki
26'
M
K. Matsuki
26'
M
23
Samuel Edozie
15'
M
Samuel Edozie
15'
M
24
Shea Charles
15'
M
Shea Charles
15'
M
34
Welington
D
Welington
D
12
G
22
M. Johnston
67'
D
M. Johnston
67'
D
5
M. Clarke
D
28
D. Sanderson
D
23
D
18
D. Ozoh
67'
M
27
L. Travis
84'
M
L. Travis
84'
M
42
B. Clark
9'
M
19
S. Szmodics
M
34
J. Banel
66'
M
9
C. Morris
1 ⚽
F
C. Morris
1 ⚽
F
Bench
3
C. Forsyth
23'
D
29
O. Fraulo
81'
M
6
Sondre Langås
23'
D
Sondre Langås
23'
D
Best on the pitch
Taylor Harwood-Bellis
D · Southampton
8.90
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 53 pass
Léo Scienza
M · Southampton
8.90
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 26 pass
R. Manning
D · Southampton
8.00
1 👟
1 shots
· 47 pass
G · Southampton
7.90
· 33 pass
Caspar Jander
M · Southampton
7.90
· 63 pass
F. Downes
M · Southampton
7.70
· 51 pass
Southampton — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 7.90 | — | — | — | 33 | 22% | — | — | — | |
| R. Manning | D | 90 | 8.00 | — | 1 | 1 | 47 | 38% | 2 | — | — |
| Jack Stephens | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 45 | 42% | 1 | — | — |
| Taylor Harwood-Bellis | D | 90 | 8.90 | 1 | — | 2 | 53 | 48% | — | — | — |
| James Bree | D | 87 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 32 | 31% | 1 | — | — |
| F. Downes | M | 90 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 51 | 45% | 2 | — | — |
| Caspar Jander | M | 90 | 7.90 | — | — | — | 63 | 55% | 6 | — | — |
| Léo Scienza | M | 75 | 8.90 | 1 | — | 2 | 26 | 20% | 1 | — | — |
| F. Azaz | M | 75 | 7.30 | — | 1 | 3 | 29 | 22% | 5 | — | — |
| T. Fellows | M | 64 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 23 | 20% | 1 | — | — |
| Ross Stewart | F | 64 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 16 | 11% | — | — | — |
| Cyle Larin | F | 26 | 6.00 | — | — | 1 | 14 | 10% | — | 1 | — |
| K. Matsuki | M | 26 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 16 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Samuel Edozie | M | 15 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 3 | 2% | 1 | — | — |
| Shea Charles | M | 15 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 9 | 7% | — | — | — |
Derby — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 35 | 24% | — | — | — | |
| M. Johnston | D | 67 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 6% | 2 | — | — |
| M. Clarke | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 42 | 30% | 5 | — | — |
| D. Sanderson | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 25 | 21% | 2 | 1 | — |
| D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 29 | 23% | 1 | — | — | |
| D. Ozoh | M | 67 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 12 | 10% | 3 | — | — |
| L. Travis | M | 84 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 33 | 29% | 5 | — | — |
| B. Clark | M | 9 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | — | — | — |
| S. Szmodics | M | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | 2 | 14 | 12% | — | — | — |
| J. Banel | M | 66 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 13 | 11% | — | — | — |
| C. Morris | F | 90 | 7.50 | 1 | — | 2 | 22 | 14% | — | — | — |
| C. Forsyth | D | 23 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 18 | 8% | — | — | — |
| O. Fraulo | M | 81 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 20 | 15% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Sondre Langås | D | 23 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 11 | 9% | 2 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Southampton vs Derby?
The final score was Southampton 2–1 Derby.
What did the model predict before Southampton vs Derby?
The model assigned 58% probability to a Southampton win, 22% to a draw, and 19% to an Derby win.