Adelaide United - BG Pathum United
AFC Champions League Two
December 03, 2026 11:00
⚡ Pre-match analysis
28.88%
Win
Adelaide United
32.12%
Draw
38.99%
Win
BG Pathum United
0.69
1.06
Expected xG
Market probabilities
Most likely result
0–1
(13.7%)
1X2 Result
1
29%
X
32%
2
39%
Double Chance
1X
61%
X2
71%
12
68%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
54%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives BG Pathum United a 38% win probability, against 32% for a draw and 28% for Adelaide United. Expected goals are 0.7 for Adelaide United and 1.1 for BG Pathum United (total 1.8), with a 80% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 0–1 at 13.7% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Adelaide United have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for BG Pathum United.
Season Stats
2W
0D
2L
4W
1D
5L
Averages per game
1.2
Goals
1.4
2.0
Conceded
1.2
4.7
Shots OT
6.0
4.7
Corners
3.0
54%
Poss.
57%
Percentages
100%
O 1.5
90%
75%
O 2.5
50%
25%
BTTS
50%
25%
Clean Sht
20%
ℹ
Based on the last 10 matches in AFC Champions League Two. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Venue Form
Goals signal (venue avg)
0%
O 3.5
20%
BTTS
1W
0D
1L
· at home
2W
1D
2L
· away
1.5
gls/g
1.4
1.0
Conceded
1.0
50%
Win %
40%
50%
Win or Draw
60%
100%
O 1.5
100%
50%
O 2.5
40%
0%
O 3.5
0%
0%
BTTS
40%
50%
Clean Sht
40%
50%
Failed to Score
20%
last 5
ℹ
Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.
Score Matrix
↕ Adelaide United
BG Pathum United →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.4% | 18.5% | 9.8% | 3.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 11.9% | 12.7% | 6.7% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 4.1% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | — |
| 3 | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | — | — |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | — | — | — |
| 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Recent form
Playing profile
Adelaide United
Attack
36
Defence
42
Form
45
BG Pathum United
Attack
41
Defence
72
Form
55
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
1
0
Draw
0
15 Oct 2026
2–1
Group F
| # | Team | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Home United
|
4 | 10 |
| 2 |
BG Pathum United
|
4 | 7 |
| 3 |
Adelaide United
|
4 | 6 |
| 4 |
Wofoo Tai Po
|
4 | 0 |
What's at stake · Group F
Top 2 advance to the next round
| Current | #3 | #2 |
| → Adelaide United | #2 | #3 |
| → Draw | #3 | #2 |
| → BG Pathum United | #3 | #2 |
Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Adelaide United vs BG Pathum United?
The model gives Adelaide United a 28% win probability, 32% for a draw, and 38% for an BG Pathum United win.
How many goals are expected in Adelaide United vs BG Pathum United?
Expected goals: Adelaide United 0.7, BG Pathum United 1.1 (total 1.8). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 80%.
What is the most likely score in Adelaide United vs BG Pathum United?
0–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 13.7%.