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Albania - Finland

UEFA Nations League November 12, 2026 20:45 Children's Mercy Park, Kansas City
Albania
#1 · 9 pts
vs
Finland
#3 · 7 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
48.05%
Win
Albania
33.84%
Draw
18.11%
Win
Finland
1.24
Expected xG
0.64

Market probabilities

Most likely result 0–0 (17.25%)
1X2 Result
1 48%
X 34%
2 18%
Double Chance
1X 82%
X2 52%
12 66%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 75%
Over 2.5 51%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Albania a 48% win probability, against 33% for a draw and 18% for Finland. Expected goals are 1.2 for Albania and 0.6 for Finland (total 1.9), with a 74% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 0–0 at 17.25% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Albania have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Finland.

Season Stats

Albania
5W 1D 4L
Finland
2W 1D 7L
Averages per game
1.2
Goals
1.1
0.9
Conceded
1.5
3.8
Shots OT
2.9
4.5
Corners
4.3
50%
Poss.
53%
Percentages
70%
O 1.5
70%
50%
O 2.5
50%
40%
BTTS
30%
40%
Clean Sht
20%
ℹ Based on the last 10 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
10%
O 3.5
20%
BTTS
Albania
2W 1D 2L · at home
Finland
1W 0D 4L · away
1.0
gls/g
1.4
0.8
Conceded
1.4
40%
Win %
20%
60%
Win or Draw
20%
60%
O 1.5
60%
40%
O 2.5
40%
0%
O 3.5
20%
40%
BTTS
0%
40%
Clean Sht
20%
40%
Failed to Score
80%
last 5
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Albania Finland →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 15.4% 9.8% 3.1% 0.7% 0.1% —
1 19.0% 12.1% 3.9% 0.8% 0.1% —
2 11.7% 7.5% 2.4% 0.5% 0.1% —
3 4.8% 3.1% 1.0% 0.2% — —
4 1.5% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% — —
5 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% — — —

Recent form

Albania Albania
W San Marino 2–1
L Finland 2–1
W San Marino 0–3
W Belarus 2–0
L Ukraine 1–2
Home clean sheet (120 days) 33%
Finland Finland
L Belarus 1–0
W Albania 2–1
D Belarus 0–0
W San Marino 0–7
L Greece 0–2
Away clean sheet (120 days) 33%

Playing profile

Albania Albania
Attack
40
Defence
77
Form
56
Finland Finland
Attack
35
Defence
73
Form
36
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

0
Albania
0
Draw
1
Finland
3 Oct 2026 UEFA Nations League 1–2

League C - Group A

# Team G Pts
1 Albania Albania 4 9
2 Belarus Belarus 4 7
3 Finland Finland 4 7
4 San Marino San Marino 4 0

What's at stake · League C - Group A

Top 2 advance to the next round

Albania Finland
Current #1 #3
→ Albania #1 #2
→ Draw #1 #2
→ Finland #2 #1

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Albania vs Finland?
The model gives Albania a 48% win probability, 33% for a draw, and 18% for an Finland win.
How many goals are expected in Albania vs Finland?
Expected goals: Albania 1.2, Finland 0.6 (total 1.9). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 74%.
What is the most likely score in Albania vs Finland?
0–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 17.25%.