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Atletico-MG - Gremio

Copa do Brasil November 07, 2026 22:00
Atletico-MG
vs
Gremio
⚡ Pre-match analysis
54.55%
Win
Atletico-MG
20.46%
Draw
24.99%
Win
Gremio
2.44
Expected xG
1.66

Market probabilities

Most likely result 2–1 (8.22%)
1X2 Result
1 55%
X 20%
2 25%
Double Chance
1X 75%
X2 46%
12 80%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 91%
Over 2.5 83%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Atletico-MG a 54% win probability, against 20% for a draw and 24% for Gremio. Expected goals are 2.4 for Atletico-MG and 1.7 for Gremio (total 4.1), with a 91% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2–1 at 8.22% probability. In 2 previous meetings, Atletico-MG have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Gremio.

Season Stats

Atletico-MG
7W 3D 4L
Gremio
4W 5D 1L
Averages per game
1.4
Goals
1.6
0.9
Conceded
0.9
5.8
Shots OT
4.1
6.4
Corners
5.5
59%
Poss.
48%
Percentages
71%
O 1.5
70%
43%
O 2.5
40%
43%
BTTS
50%
36%
Clean Sht
50%
ℹ Based on the last 14 matches in Copa do Brasil. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
31%
O 3.5
55%
BTTS
Atletico-MG
4W 1D 2L · at home
Gremio
1W 4D 1L · away
1.7
gls/g
1.7
0.9
Conceded
1.3
57%
Win %
17%
71%
Win or Draw
83%
71%
O 1.5
83%
57%
O 2.5
50%
29%
O 3.5
33%
43%
BTTS
67%
29%
Clean Sht
33%
43%
Failed to Score
17%
last 7
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Atletico-MG Gremio →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1.7% 2.8% 2.3% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2%
1 4.0% 6.7% 5.6% 3.1% 1.3% 0.4%
2 4.9% 8.2% 6.8% 3.8% 1.6% 0.5%
3 4.0% 6.6% 5.5% 3.1% 1.3% 0.4%
4 2.4% 4.0% 3.4% 1.9% 0.8% 0.3%
5 1.2% 2.0% 1.6% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1%

Recent form

Atletico-MG Atletico-MG
W Cruzeiro 2–1
D Cruzeiro 1–1
W Juventude 0–1
D Juventude 0–0
L Ceara 2–1
Home clean sheet (120 days) 33%
Gremio Gremio
W Internacional 3–1
D Internacional 0–0
W Mirassol 1–0
D Mirassol 1–1
W Confiança 0–3
Away clean sheet (120 days) 23%

Playing profile

Atletico-MG Atletico-MG
Attack
44
Defence
51
Form
60
Gremio Gremio
Attack
39
Defence
56
Form
52
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

1
Atletico-MG
0
Draw
1
Gremio
16 Aug 2026 Brasileirão Série A 3–0
26 Feb 2026 Brasileirão Série A 1–2
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Atletico-MG vs Gremio?
The model gives Atletico-MG a 54% win probability, 20% for a draw, and 24% for an Gremio win.
How many goals are expected in Atletico-MG vs Gremio?
Expected goals: Atletico-MG 2.4, Gremio 1.7 (total 4.1). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 91%.
What is the most likely score in Atletico-MG vs Gremio?
2–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 8.22%.