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Eredivisie · Regular Season - 34 May 17, 2026 14:30 AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar
#5 · 20 pts
3 – 3
Final score
NAC Breda
✗Model wrong — prediction AZ Alkmaar, result Draw
S. Mijnans (ast. T. Parrott) 8'
M. Chavez Garcia (ast. S. Mijnans) 12'
M. Meerdink (ast. Weslley Patati) 90'
61' (ast. C. Valerius) M. Soumano
71' (ast. F. Jensen) M. Soumano
89' (ast. C. Valerius) J. Talvitie
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave AZ Alkmaar a 67% win probability (draw 20%, NAC Breda 11%). The final result was AZ Alkmaar 3–3 NAC Breda. In 1 previous meetings, AZ Alkmaar have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for NAC Breda.

Match statistics
14
Total shots
15
10
Shots on target
11
1.45
Actual xG
2.08
7
Saves
7
55%
Possession
45%
7
Corners
6
18
Tackles
19
1
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
⚽S. Mijnans · ast. T. Parrott
8'
⚽M. Chavez Garcia · ast. S. Mijnans
12'
↕ T. Parrott / M. Meerdink
37'
54'
J. Candelaria / K. Sowah ↕
55'
C. Brym / P. Reulen ↕
55'
J. Talvitie / E. Mahmutovic ↕
↕ I. Jensen / Weslley Patati
57'
↕ M. Chavez Garcia / D. Kasius
57'
59'
R. Hillen
61'
ast. C. Valerius · M. Soumano⚽
68'
L. Holtby / B. Ghalidi ↕
68'
A. Ayew / C. Leemans ↕
↕ J. Clasie / K. Boogaard
70'
↕ R. Daal / A. Oufkir
70'
71'
ast. F. Jensen · M. Soumano⚽
M. Meerdink
85'
89'
ast. C. Valerius · J. Talvitie⚽
⚽M. Meerdink · ast. Weslley Patati
90'
Pre-match prediction
67.88%
AZ
20.86%
X ←
11.26%
NAC
✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 20.86% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
AZ
1.80
1.45
-0.35
NAC
0.54
2.08
+1.54
NAC Breda dominated by xG (2.08 vs 1.45). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Feyenoord Feyenoord 10 24
2 Ajax Ajax 10 21
3 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 10 20
4 Twente Twente 10 20
5 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 10 20
6 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 10 18
7 Heerenveen Heerenveen 10 15
8 Groningen Groningen 10 15
9 GO Ahead Eagles GO Ahead Eagles 10 14
10 Cambuur Cambuur 10 12
11 Utrecht Utrecht 10 12
12 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 10 11
13 Excelsior Excelsior 10 11
14 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 10 9
15 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 10 8
16 Telstar Telstar 10 6
17 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag 10 6
18 Willem II Willem II 10 2
Lineups
AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 4-2-3-1
1 R. Owusu-Oduro R. Owusu-Oduro G 8.90
15 M. Chávez M. Chávez 1 ⚽ 57' D 7.90
5 Alexandre Penetra Alexandre Penetra D 7.20
3 W. Goes W. Goes D 6.30
22 E. Dijkstra E. Dijkstra D 6.90
6 P. Koopmeiners P. Koopmeiners M 6.30
8 J. Clasie J. Clasie 70' M 7.20
27 R. Daal R. Daal 70' M 7.20
10 S. Mijnans S. Mijnans 1 ⚽ 1 👟 M 8.60
17 I. Jensen I. Jensen 57' M 6.90
9 T. Parrott T. Parrott 1 👟 37' F 7.00
Bench
24 A. Oufkir A. Oufkir 20' F 6.70
45 B. Kovacs B. Kovacs F
23 B. van Duijl B. van Duijl D
30 D. Kasius D. Kasius 33' D 6.30
11 I. Sadiq I. Sadiq F
41 Jeroen Zoet Jeroen Zoet G
20 Kasper Boogaard Kasper Boogaard 20' M 6.20
35 M. Meerdink M. Meerdink 1 ⚽ 53' F 7.20
33 M. Šín M. Šín M
18 R. Ichihara R. Ichihara D
2 S. Maikuma S. Maikuma D
7 Weslley Patati Weslley Patati 1 👟 33' F 7.20
NAC Breda NAC Breda 4-4-2
99 D. Bielica D. Bielica G 7.20
22 R. Hillen R. Hillen D 6.90
20 F. Oldrup Jensen F. Oldrup Jensen 1 👟 D 6.90
15
E. Mahmutović 55' D 6.00
25 Cherrion Valerius Cherrion Valerius 2 👟 D 7.90
14 Kamal Sowah Kamal Sowah 54' M 6.90
8 Clint Leemans Clint Leemans 68' M 7.30
16 Maximilien Balard Maximilien Balard M 6.90
55 Brahim Ghalidi Brahim Ghalidi 68' M 6.70
9 M. Soumano M. Soumano 2 ⚽ F 8.30
26 P. Reulen P. Reulen 55' F 6.50
Bench
24 André Ayew André Ayew 22' F 6.30
4 B. Kemper B. Kemper D
7 C. Brym C. Brym 35' F 6.70
21 Jayden Candelaria Jayden Candelaria 36' D 6.70
32 Juho Talvitie Juho Talvitie 1 ⚽ 35' F 8.20
31 Kostas Lamprou Kostas Lamprou G
90 L. Holtby L. Holtby 22' M 6.70
1 Roy Kortsmit Roy Kortsmit G
44 Thomas Goos Thomas Goos G
Best on the pitch
R. Owusu-Oduro
R. Owusu-Oduro
G · AZ
8.90
· 26 pass
S. Mijnans
S. Mijnans
M · AZ
8.60
1 ⚽ 1 👟
3 shots · 49 pass
M. Soumano
M. Soumano
F · NAC
8.30
2 ⚽
5 shots · 26 pass
Juho Talvitie
Juho Talvitie
F · NAC
8.20
1 ⚽
1 shots · 16 pass
M. Chávez
M. Chávez
D · AZ
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots · 26 pass
Cherrion Valerius
Cherrion Valerius
D · NAC
7.90
2 👟
· 33 pass
AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
R. Owusu-Oduro G 90 8.90 — — — 26 17% — — —
M. Chávez D 57 7.90 1 — 1 26 20% 3 — —
Alexandre Penetra D 90 7.20 — — 1 38 35% 1 — —
W. Goes D 90 6.30 — — 1 48 43% 1 — —
E. Dijkstra D 90 6.90 — — 1 38 34% 5 — —
P. Koopmeiners M 90 6.30 — — — 43 36% 2 — —
J. Clasie M 70 7.20 — — 1 40 37% 1 — —
R. Daal M 70 7.20 — — 1 24 20% 1 — —
S. Mijnans M 90 8.60 1 1 3 49 43% 2 — —
I. Jensen M 57 6.90 — — — 20 19% — — —
T. Parrott F 37 7.00 — 1 — 15 12% — — —
A. Oufkir F 20 6.70 — — 1 9 5% — — —
D. Kasius D 33 6.30 — — — 15 15% 1 — —
Kasper Boogaard M 20 6.20 — — — 12 10% — — —
M. Meerdink F 53 7.20 1 — 3 12 8% — 1 —
Weslley Patati F 33 7.20 — 1 1 15 13% 1 — —
NAC Breda NAC Breda — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
D. Bielica G 90 7.20 — — — 22 12% — — —
R. Hillen D 90 6.90 — — 1 34 26% 4 1 —
F. Oldrup Jensen D 90 6.90 — 1 — 49 46% 3 — —
E. Mahmutović D 55 6.00 — — 1 19 18% — — —
Cherrion Valerius D 90 7.90 — 2 — 33 25% 4 — —
Kamal Sowah M 54 6.90 — — 1 24 18% 1 — —
Clint Leemans M 68 7.30 — — 3 40 38% — — —
Maximilien Balard M 90 6.90 — — — 33 31% 3 — —
Brahim Ghalidi M 68 6.70 — — — 20 18% — — —
M. Soumano F 90 8.30 2 — 5 26 21% 1 — —
P. Reulen F 55 6.50 — — 1 9 9% — — —
André Ayew F 22 6.30 — — 1 5 5% — — —
C. Brym F 35 6.70 — — — 15 14% — — —
Jayden Candelaria D 36 6.70 — — 1 4 2% — — —
Juho Talvitie F 35 8.20 1 — 1 16 11% 3 — —
L. Holtby M 22 6.70 — — — 6 6% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda?
The final score was AZ Alkmaar 3–3 NAC Breda.
What did the model predict before AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda?
The model assigned 67% probability to a AZ Alkmaar win, 20% to a draw, and 11% to an NAC Breda win.