AZ Alkmaar 3–3 NAC Breda — pre-match prediction — Eredivisie — May 17, 2026

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Eredivisie · Regular Season - 34 May 17, 2026 14:30 AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar

AZ Alkmaar

#7 · 52 pts

3 – 3

Final score

NAC Breda

#17 · 29 pts

✗Model wrong — prediction AZ Alkmaar, result Draw

S. Mijnans (ast. T. Parrott) 8'

M. Chavez Garcia (ast. S. Mijnans) 12'

M. Meerdink (ast. Weslley Patati) 90'

61' (ast. C. Valerius) M. Soumano

71' (ast. F. Jensen) M. Soumano

89' (ast. C. Valerius) J. Talvitie

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave AZ Alkmaar a 67% win probability (draw 20%, NAC Breda 11%). The final result was AZ Alkmaar 3–3 NAC Breda. In 1 previous meetings, AZ Alkmaar have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for NAC Breda.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

1.45

Actual xG

2.08

Saves

55%

Possession

45%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

⚽S. Mijnans · ast. T. Parrott

⚽M. Chavez Garcia · ast. S. Mijnans

12'

↕ T. Parrott / M. Meerdink

37'

54'

J. Candelaria / K. Sowah ↕

55'

C. Brym / P. Reulen ↕

55'

J. Talvitie / E. Mahmutovic ↕

↕ I. Jensen / Weslley Patati

57'

↕ M. Chavez Garcia / D. Kasius

57'

59'

R. Hillen

61'

ast. C. Valerius · M. Soumano⚽

68'

L. Holtby / B. Ghalidi ↕

68'

A. Ayew / C. Leemans ↕

↕ J. Clasie / K. Boogaard

70'

↕ R. Daal / A. Oufkir

70'

71'

ast. F. Jensen · M. Soumano⚽

M. Meerdink

85'

89'

ast. C. Valerius · J. Talvitie⚽

⚽M. Meerdink · ast. Weslley Patati

90'

Pre-match prediction

67.88%

20.86%

X ←

11.26%

NAC

✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 20.86% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

1.80

1.45

-0.35

NAC

0.54

2.08

+1.54

NAC Breda dominated by xG (2.08 vs 1.45). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Roda	1	1
1	Willem II	1	3
1	PSV Eindhoven	34	84
2	Feyenoord	34	65
2	Waalwijk	1	1
2	Waalwijk	1	0
3	NEC Nijmegen	34	59
4	Twente	34	58
5	Ajax	34	56
6	Utrecht	34	53
7	AZ Alkmaar	34	52
8	Heerenveen	34	51
9	Groningen	34	48
10	Sparta Rotterdam	34	43
11	Fortuna Sittard	34	39
12	GO Ahead Eagles	34	38
13	Excelsior	34	38
14	Telstar	34	37
15	PEC Zwolle	34	37
16	FC Volendam	34	32
17	NAC Breda	34	29
18	Heracles	34	19

Lineups

AZ Alkmaar 4-2-3-1

Rome Jayden Owusu-Oduro G 8.90

Mateo Chávez 1 ⚽ 57' D 7.90

Alexandre Penetra D 7.20

W. Goes D 6.30

Elijah Dijkstra D 6.90

Peer Koopmeiners M 6.30

Jordy Clasie 70' M 7.20

R. Daal 70' M 7.20

S. Mijnans 1 ⚽ 1 👟 M 8.60

I. Jensen 57' M 6.90

T. Parrott 1 👟 37' F 7.00

Bench

Ayoub Oufkir 20' F 6.70

Bendegúz Kovács F

Billy van Duijl D

Denso Kasius 33' D 6.30

I. Sadiq F

Jeroen Zoet G

K. Boogaard 20' M 6.20

Matěj Šín M

Mexx Meerdink 1 ⚽ 53' F 7.20

Rion Ichihara D

Seiya Maikuma D

Weslley Patati 1 👟 33' F 7.20

NAC Breda 4-4-2

Daniel Bielica G 7.20

R. Hillen D 6.90

Fredrik Jensen 1 👟 D 6.90

Enes Mahmutović 55' D 6.00

Cherrion Valerius 2 👟 D 7.90

Kamal Sowah 54' M 6.90

Clint Leemans 68' M 7.30

Maximilien Balard M 6.90

Brahim Ghalidi 68' M 6.70

Moussa Soumano 2 ⚽ F 8.30

Pepijn Reulen 55' F 6.50

Bench

André Ayew 22' F 6.30

Boy Kemper D

Charles-Andreas Brym 35' F 6.70

Jayden Candelaria 36' D 6.70

Juho Talvitie 1 ⚽ 35' F 8.20

Kostas Lamprou G

L. Holtby 22' M 6.70

Roy Kortsmit G

Thomas Goos G

Best on the pitch

Rome Jayden Owusu-Oduro

G · AZ

8.90

· 26 pass

S. Mijnans

M · AZ

8.60

1 ⚽ 1 👟

3 shots · 49 pass

Moussa Soumano

F · NAC

8.30

2 ⚽

5 shots · 26 pass

Juho Talvitie

F · NAC

8.20

1 ⚽

1 shots · 16 pass

Mateo Chávez

D · AZ

7.90

1 ⚽

1 shots · 26 pass

Cherrion Valerius

D · NAC

7.90

2 👟

· 33 pass

AZ Alkmaar — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Rome Jayden Owusu-Oduro	G	90	8.90	—	—	—	26	17%	—	—	—
Mateo Chávez	D	57	7.90	1	—	1	26	20%	3	—	—
Alexandre Penetra	D	90	7.20	—	—	1	38	35%	1	—	—
W. Goes	D	90	6.30	—	—	1	48	43%	1	—	—
Elijah Dijkstra	D	90	6.90	—	—	1	38	34%	5	—	—
Peer Koopmeiners	M	90	6.30	—	—	—	43	36%	2	—	—
Jordy Clasie	M	70	7.20	—	—	1	40	37%	1	—	—
R. Daal	M	70	7.20	—	—	1	24	20%	1	—	—
S. Mijnans	M	90	8.60	1	1	3	49	43%	2	—	—
I. Jensen	M	57	6.90	—	—	—	20	19%	—	—	—
T. Parrott	F	37	7.00	—	1	—	15	12%	—	—	—
Ayoub Oufkir	F	20	6.70	—	—	1	9	5%	—	—	—
Denso Kasius	D	33	6.30	—	—	—	15	15%	1	—	—
K. Boogaard	M	20	6.20	—	—	—	12	10%	—	—	—
Mexx Meerdink	F	53	7.20	1	—	3	12	8%	—	1	—
Weslley Patati	F	33	7.20	—	1	1	15	13%	1	—	—

NAC Breda — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Daniel Bielica	G	90	7.20	—	—	—	22	12%	—	—	—
R. Hillen	D	90	6.90	—	—	1	34	26%	4	1	—
Fredrik Jensen	D	90	6.90	—	1	—	49	46%	3	—	—
Enes Mahmutović	D	55	6.00	—	—	1	19	18%	—	—	—
Cherrion Valerius	D	90	7.90	—	2	—	33	25%	4	—	—
Kamal Sowah	M	54	6.90	—	—	1	24	18%	1	—	—
Clint Leemans	M	68	7.30	—	—	3	40	38%	—	—	—
Maximilien Balard	M	90	6.90	—	—	—	33	31%	3	—	—
Brahim Ghalidi	M	68	6.70	—	—	—	20	18%	—	—	—
Moussa Soumano	F	90	8.30	2	—	5	26	21%	1	—	—
Pepijn Reulen	F	55	6.50	—	—	1	9	9%	—	—	—
André Ayew	F	22	6.30	—	—	1	5	5%	—	—	—
Charles-Andreas Brym	F	35	6.70	—	—	—	15	14%	—	—	—
Jayden Candelaria	D	36	6.70	—	—	1	4	2%	—	—	—
Juho Talvitie	F	35	8.20	1	—	1	16	11%	3	—	—
L. Holtby	M	22	6.70	—	—	—	6	6%	—	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda?

The final score was AZ Alkmaar 3–3 NAC Breda.

What did the model predict before AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda?

The model assigned 67% probability to a AZ Alkmaar win, 20% to a draw, and 11% to an NAC Breda win.