Brasileirão Série A
· Regular Season - 16
May 17, 2026 21:00
✗Model wrong — prediction Bahia, result Draw
M. Sanabria
72'
62'
(ast. Pedro Gabriel)
Viery
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Bahia a 62% win probability (draw 21%, Gremio 16%). The final result was Bahia 1–1 Gremio.
Match statistics
13
Total shots
3
6
Shots on target
1
2.09
Actual xG
0.16
0
Saves
5
60%
Possession
40%
7
Corners
3
16
Tackles
14
4
🟨 Yellow cards
5
Match Events
36'
J. Enamorado
46'
Gabriel Mec
/
Willian
Kanu
57'
60'
V. Ramon
/
Marcos Rocha
60'
F. Amuzu
/
J. Enamorado
60'
M. Braithwaite
/
Carlos Vinicius
Luciano Juba
/ Iago Borduchi
60'
Ademir
/ M. Sanabria
60'
62'
ast. Pedro Gabriel ·
Viery⚽
65'
Pedro Gabriel
Everton Ribeiro
/ Rodrigo
67'
Willian Jose
/ Everaldo
67'
⚽M. Sanabria
72'
Nicolas Acevedo
74'
78'
Bernardo Zortea
/
E. Noriega
Erick Pulga
79'
80'
V. Ramon
Gilberto
/ Caio Suassuna
84'
89'
Andre Henrique
90'+1
Gabriel Mec
Rodrigo
90'+1
Pre-match prediction
62.57%
Bahia
21.26%
X ←
16.17%
Gremio
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
21.26%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.94
2.09
+0.15
0.64
0.16
-0.48
Bahia dominated by xG (2.09 vs 0.16).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
22
Léo Vieira
G
Léo Vieira
G
46
Luciano Juba
60'
D
Luciano Juba
60'
D
4
Kanu
D
Kanu
D
33
David Duarte
D
David Duarte
D
2
Gilberto
84'
D
Gilberto
84'
D
14
Erick
M
Erick
M
5
N. Acevedo
M
N. Acevedo
M
10
Éverton Ribeiro
67'
M
Éverton Ribeiro
67'
M
16
Erick Pulga
F
Erick Pulga
F
12
Willian José
67'
F
Willian José
67'
F
7
Ademir
60'
F
Ademir
60'
F
Bench
90
Caio Suassuna
14'
F
Caio Suassuna
14'
F
27
Everaldo
23'
F
Everaldo
23'
F
3
Gabriel Xavier
D
Gabriel Xavier
D
25
Iago
30'
D
Iago
30'
D
6
Jean Lucas
M
Jean Lucas
M
34
João Paulo
G
João Paulo
G
43
Luiz Gustavo
D
Luiz Gustavo
D
15
M. Araújo
M
M. Araújo
M
44
Marcos Victor
D
Marcos Victor
D
23
Mateo Sanabria
1 ⚽
30'
F
Mateo Sanabria
1 ⚽
30'
F
11
Rodrigo Nestor
23'
M
Rodrigo Nestor
23'
M
31
Roman Gomez
D
Roman Gomez
D
1
Weverton
G
Weverton
G
44
Viery
1 ⚽
D
Viery
1 ⚽
D
3
Wagner Leonardo
D
Wagner Leonardo
D
43
Luis Guedes
D
Luis Guedes
D
54
Pedro Gabriel
1 👟
M
Pedro Gabriel
1 👟
M
33
L. Pérez
M
L. Pérez
M
19
E. Noriega
78'
M
E. Noriega
78'
M
14
Marcos Rocha
60'
M
Marcos Rocha
60'
M
10
Willian
45'
F
Willian
45'
F
95
Carlos Vinícius
60'
F
Carlos Vinícius
60'
F
99
J. Enamorado
60'
F
J. Enamorado
60'
F
Bench
77
André Henrique
F
André Henrique
F
50
Bernardo Zortea
12'
M
Bernardo Zortea
12'
M
38
Caio Paulista
D
Caio Paulista
D
9
F. Amuzu
30'
F
F. Amuzu
30'
F
37
Gabriel Mec
45'
F
Gabriel Mec
45'
F
22
M. Braithwaite
30'
F
M. Braithwaite
30'
F
11
M. Monsalve
M
M. Monsalve
M
21
Tetê
F
Tetê
F
24
Thiago Beltrame
G
Thiago Beltrame
G
39
Tiaguinho
M
Tiaguinho
M
32
Vitor Ramon
30'
D
Vitor Ramon
30'
D
4
W. Kannemann
D
W. Kannemann
D
Best on the pitch
Mateo Sanabria
F · Bahia
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 8 pass
Weverton
G · Gremio
7.70
· 30 pass
Erick Pulga
F · Bahia
7.60
2 shots
· 13 pass
N. Acevedo
M · Bahia
7.50
2 shots
· 73 pass
Luciano Juba
D · Bahia
7.30
1 shots
· 28 pass
Viery
D · Gremio
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 48 pass
Bahia — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Léo Vieira | G | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 22 | 21% | — | — | — |
| Luciano Juba | D | 60 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 28 | 25% | 1 | — | — |
| Kanu | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 53 | 52% | 2 | 1 | — |
| David Duarte | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 50 | 47% | — | — | — |
| Gilberto | D | 84 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 61 | 57% | 1 | — | — |
| Erick | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 23 | 19% | — | 1 | — |
| N. Acevedo | M | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | 2 | 73 | 66% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Éverton Ribeiro | M | 67 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 45 | 31% | 2 | — | — |
| Erick Pulga | F | 90 | 7.60 | — | — | 2 | 13 | 8% | 4 | — | — |
| Willian José | F | 67 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 11 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Ademir | F | 60 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 15 | 13% | 4 | — | — |
| Caio Suassuna | F | 14 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Everaldo | F | 23 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Iago | D | 30 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 17 | 15% | — | — | — |
| Mateo Sanabria | F | 30 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 8 | 6% | — | — | — |
| Rodrigo Nestor | M | 23 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 22 | 20% | — | 1 | — |
Gremio — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weverton | G | 90 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 30 | 19% | — | — | — |
| Viery | D | 90 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 48 | 41% | 1 | — | — |
| Wagner Leonardo | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 39 | 37% | — | — | — |
| Luis Guedes | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 29 | 24% | 1 | — | — |
| Pedro Gabriel | M | 90 | 6.50 | — | 1 | — | 24 | 15% | 2 | 1 | — |
| L. Pérez | M | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 17 | 14% | 4 | — | — |
| E. Noriega | M | 78 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 37 | 31% | — | — | — |
| Marcos Rocha | M | 60 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 23 | 18% | — | — | — |
| Willian | F | 45 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 22 | 20% | — | — | — |
| Carlos Vinícius | F | 60 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Enamorado | F | 60 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 8 | 6% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Bernardo Zortea | M | 12 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
| F. Amuzu | F | 30 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 9 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Mec | F | 45 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 6 | 4% | 1 | 1 | — |
| M. Braithwaite | F | 30 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 4 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Vitor Ramon | D | 30 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 5 | 5% | 2 | 1 | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Bahia vs Gremio?
The final score was Bahia 1–1 Gremio.
What did the model predict before Bahia vs Gremio?
The model assigned 62% probability to a Bahia win, 21% to a draw, and 16% to an Gremio win.