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Bayer Leverkusen - RB Leipzig

DFB Pokal December 01, 2026 20:00 BayArena, Bayer Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen
vs
RB Leipzig
⚡ Pre-match analysis
60.75%
Win
Bayer Leverkusen
14.42%
Draw
24.83%
Win
RB Leipzig
4.21
Expected xG
2.83
Most likely outcome
Bayer Leverkusen
60.75%
Probability
100.0%
1X2 accuracy · 7 predictions (3 months)

Market probabilities

Most likely result 4–2 (4.96%)
1X2 Result
1 61%
X 14%
2 25%
Double Chance
1X 75%
X2 39%
12 86%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 95%
Over 2.5 86%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Bayer Leverkusen a 60% win probability, against 14% for a draw and 24% for RB Leipzig. Expected goals are 4.2 for Bayer Leverkusen and 2.8 for RB Leipzig (total 7.0), with a 94% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 4–2 at 4.96% probability. In 3 previous meetings, Bayer Leverkusen have won 3 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for RB Leipzig.

Season Stats

Bayer Leverkusen
6W 0D 1L
RB Leipzig
5W 0D 1L
Averages per game
3.0
Goals
3.2
0.9
Conceded
1.2
6.0
Shots OT
6.0
4.4
Corners
6.3
60%
Poss.
61%
Percentages
86%
O 1.5
100%
71%
O 2.5
83%
29%
BTTS
67%
57%
Clean Sht
17%
ℹ Based on the last 7 matches in DFB Pokal. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
47%
O 3.5
47%
BTTS
Bayer Leverkusen
2W 0D 1L · at home
RB Leipzig
4W 0D 1L · away
2.7
gls/g
3.2
1.3
Conceded
1.2
67%
Win %
80%
67%
Win or Draw
80%
100%
O 1.5
100%
67%
O 2.5
80%
33%
O 3.5
60%
33%
BTTS
60%
33%
Clean Sht
20%
33%
Failed to Score
20%
last 5
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Bayer Leverkusen RB Leipzig →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%
1 0.4% 1.0% 1.5% 1.4% 1.0% 0.6%
2 0.8% 2.2% 3.1% 2.9% 2.1% 1.2%
3 1.1% 3.1% 4.4% 4.1% 2.9% 1.6%
4 1.2% 3.3% 4.6% 4.3% 3.1% 1.7%
5 1.0% 2.7% 3.9% 3.6% 2.6% 1.5%

Recent form

Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen
W 1. FC Nürnberg 5–2
W SV Wehen 0–4
L Bayern München 0–2
W FC St. Pauli 3–0
W Borussia Dortmund 0–1
Home clean sheet (120 days) 33%
RB Leipzig RB Leipzig
W Rot-Weiß Essen 1–2
W Eintracht Trier 0–6
L Bayern München 2–0
W 1. FC Magdeburg 3–1
W Energie Cottbus 1–4
Away clean sheet (120 days) 23%

Playing profile

Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen
Attack
61
Defence
57
Form
60
RB Leipzig RB Leipzig
Attack
60
Defence
52
Form
61
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

3
Bayer Leverkusen
0
Draw
0
RB Leipzig
20 Sep 2026 Bundesliga 2–0
2 May 2026 Bundesliga 4–1
20 Dec 2025 Bundesliga 3–1
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig?
The model gives Bayer Leverkusen a 60% win probability, 14% for a draw, and 24% for an RB Leipzig win.
How many goals are expected in Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig?
Expected goals: Bayer Leverkusen 4.2, RB Leipzig 2.8 (total 7.0). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 94%.
What is the most likely score in Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig?
4–2 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 4.96%.