Belgium - Italy
Weather at kick-off
☀️
Clear sky
13.8°C
💨 10 km/h
· Tochigi
⚡ Pre-match analysis
43.09%
Win
Belgium
28.54%
Draw
28.38%
Win
Italy
1.56
1.27
Expected xG
Market probabilities
Most likely result
1–1
(13.55%)
1X2 Result
1
43%
X
29%
2
28%
Double Chance
1X
72%
X2
57%
12
72%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
85%
Over 2.5
66%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Belgium a 43% win probability, against 28% for a draw and 28% for Italy. Expected goals are 1.6 for Belgium and 1.3 for Italy (total 2.8), with a 84% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 13.55% probability. In 3 previous meetings, Belgium have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 1 wins for Italy.
Season Stats
4W
1D
7L
6W
3D
3L
Averages per game
1.3
Goals
2.1
1.4
Conceded
1.5
5.2
Shots OT
5.2
6.3
Corners
3.8
53%
Poss.
49%
Percentages
75%
O 1.5
92%
58%
O 2.5
75%
42%
BTTS
83%
25%
Clean Sht
8%
ℹ
Based on the last 12 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Venue Form
Goals signal (venue avg)
34%
O 3.5
58%
BTTS
3W
0D
3L
· at home
4W
2D
0L
· away
1.7
gls/g
2.3
0.8
Conceded
1.2
50%
Win %
67%
50%
Win or Draw
100%
67%
O 1.5
83%
67%
O 2.5
67%
17%
O 3.5
50%
33%
BTTS
83%
33%
Clean Sht
17%
33%
Failed to Score
0%
last 6
ℹ
Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.
Score Matrix
↕ Belgium
Italy →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0% | 7.5% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 9.3% | 11.7% | 7.4% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 2 | 7.2% | 9.1% | 5.8% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 3.7% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | — |
| 5 | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | — | — |
Recent form
Playing profile
Belgium
Attack
52
Defence
50
Form
42
Italy
Attack
48
Defence
61
Form
53
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
Unavailable
Belgium
Injured
Injured
Injured
Injured
What's at stake · League A - Group A
Top 2 advance to the next round
| Current | #3 | #2 |
| → Belgium | #2 | #3 |
| → Draw | #3 | #2 |
| → Italy | #3 | #2 |
Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Belgium vs Italy?
The model gives Belgium a 43% win probability, 28% for a draw, and 28% for an Italy win.
How many goals are expected in Belgium vs Italy?
Expected goals: Belgium 1.6, Italy 1.3 (total 2.8). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 84%.
What is the most likely score in Belgium vs Italy?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 13.55%.