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Bermuda - St. Lucia

CONCACAF Nations League November 11, 2026 22:00
Bermuda
vs
St. Lucia
⚡ Pre-match analysis
18.71%
Win
Bermuda
20.79%
Draw
60.5%
Win
St. Lucia
0.87
Expected xG
1.9
Most likely outcome
St. Lucia
60.5%
Probability
83.3%
1X2 accuracy · 24 predictions (3 months)

Market probabilities

Most likely result 0–1 (12.51%)
1X2 Result ✓ 83.3% hit rate (24 picks)
1 19%
X 21%
2 61%
Double Chance ✓ 95.8% hit rate (24 picks)
1X 40%
X2 81%
12 79%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 77%
Over 2.5 52%
✓ 71.4% hit rate (42 picks)
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives St. Lucia a 60% win probability, against 20% for a draw and 18% for Bermuda. Expected goals are 0.9 for Bermuda and 1.9 for St. Lucia (total 2.8), with a 77% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 0–1 at 12.51% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Bermuda have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for St. Lucia.

Season Stats

Bermuda
0W 0D 4L
St. Lucia
3W 0D 1L
Averages per game
1.2
Goals
2.2
3.2
Conceded
1.0
5.0
Shots OT
3.8
4.5
Corners
3.8
49%
Poss.
47%
Percentages
100%
O 1.5
75%
100%
O 2.5
50%
100%
BTTS
25%
0%
Clean Sht
50%
ℹ Based on the last 4 matches in CONCACAF Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
0%
O 3.5
50%
BTTS
Bermuda
0W 0D 2L · at home
St. Lucia
1W 0D 1L · away
1.0
gls/g
0.5
2.0
Conceded
1.0
0%
Win %
50%
0%
Win or Draw
50%
100%
O 1.5
50%
100%
O 2.5
0%
0%
O 3.5
0%
100%
BTTS
0%
0%
Clean Sht
50%
0%
Failed to Score
50%
last 2
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Bermuda St. Lucia →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.3% 12.0% 11.4% 7.2% 3.4% 1.3%
1 5.5% 10.4% 9.8% 6.2% 2.9% 1.1%
2 2.4% 4.5% 4.3% 2.7% 1.3% 0.5%
3 0.7% 1.3% 1.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1%
4 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% —
5 — — — — — —

Recent form

Bermuda Bermuda
L Barbados 1–2
L Barbados 4–1
L St. Lucia 5–2
L Guadeloupe 1–2
Home clean sheet (120 days) 20%
St. Lucia St. Lucia
W Guadeloupe 0–1
W Guadeloupe 3–0
W Bermuda 5–2
L Barbados 2–0
Away clean sheet (120 days) 33%

Playing profile

Bermuda Bermuda
Attack
33
Defence
25
Form
29
St. Lucia St. Lucia
Attack
40
Defence
61
Form
59
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

0
Bermuda
0
Draw
1
St. Lucia
29 Sep 2026 CONCACAF Nations League 2–5
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Bermuda vs St. Lucia?
The model gives Bermuda a 18% win probability, 20% for a draw, and 60% for an St. Lucia win.
How many goals are expected in Bermuda vs St. Lucia?
Expected goals: Bermuda 0.9, St. Lucia 1.9 (total 2.8). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 77%.
What is the most likely score in Bermuda vs St. Lucia?
0–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 12.51%.