BG Pathum United - Home United
AFC Champions League Two
November 26, 2026 13:15
⚡ Pre-match analysis
30.72%
Win
BG Pathum United
31.49%
Draw
37.79%
Win
Home United
0.89
1.21
Expected xG
Market probabilities
Most likely result
1–1
(12.73%)
1X2 Result
1
31%
X
31%
2
38%
Double Chance
1X
62%
X2
69%
12
69%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
51%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Home United a 37% win probability, against 31% for a draw and 30% for BG Pathum United. Expected goals are 0.9 for BG Pathum United and 1.2 for Home United (total 2.1), with a 77% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 12.73% probability. In 1 previous meetings, BG Pathum United have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Home United.
Season Stats
3W
1D
5L
5W
2D
2L
Averages per game
1.1
Goals
1.6
1.2
Conceded
1.0
6.5
Shots OT
5.5
4.0
Corners
8.0
54%
Poss.
55%
Percentages
89%
O 1.5
67%
44%
O 2.5
33%
44%
BTTS
56%
22%
Clean Sht
33%
ℹ
Based on the last 9 matches in AFC Champions League Two. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Venue Form
Goals signal (venue avg)
0%
O 3.5
35%
BTTS
1W
0D
3L
· at home
3W
1D
1L
· away
0.8
gls/g
1.0
1.5
Conceded
0.4
25%
Win %
60%
25%
Win or Draw
80%
75%
O 1.5
40%
50%
O 2.5
0%
0%
O 3.5
0%
50%
BTTS
20%
0%
Clean Sht
60%
50%
Failed to Score
20%
last 5
ℹ
Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.
Score Matrix
↕ BG Pathum United
Home United →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3% | 14.8% | 9.0% | 3.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 10.9% | 13.2% | 8.0% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 4.8% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | — |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | — | — |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | — | — | — |
Recent form
Playing profile
BG Pathum United
Attack
44
Defence
70
Form
58
Home United
Attack
59
Defence
79
Form
73
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
0
1
Draw
0
17 Sep 2026
1–1
Group F
| # | Team | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Home United
|
3 | 7 |
| 2 |
Adelaide United
|
3 | 6 |
| 3 |
BG Pathum United
|
3 | 4 |
| 4 |
Wofoo Tai Po
|
3 | 0 |
What's at stake · Group F
Top 2 advance to the next round
| Current | #3 | #1 |
| → BG Pathum United | #2 | #1 |
| → Draw | #3 | #1 |
| → Home United | #3 | #1 |
Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win BG Pathum United vs Home United?
The model gives BG Pathum United a 30% win probability, 31% for a draw, and 37% for an Home United win.
How many goals are expected in BG Pathum United vs Home United?
Expected goals: BG Pathum United 0.9, Home United 1.2 (total 2.1). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 77%.
What is the most likely score in BG Pathum United vs Home United?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 12.73%.