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Bulgaria - Iceland

UEFA Nations League November 13, 2026 20:45 Children's Mercy Park, Kansas City
Bulgaria
#3 · 4 pts
vs
Iceland
#1 · 8 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
31.78%
Win
Bulgaria
35.92%
Draw
32.29%
Win
Iceland
0.94
Expected xG
0.97

Market probabilities

Most likely result 0–0 (16.9%)
1X2 Result
1 32%
X 36%
2 32%
Double Chance
1X 68%
X2 68%
12 64%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 74%
Over 2.5 52%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Iceland a 32% win probability, against 35% for a draw and 31% for Bulgaria. Expected goals are 0.9 for Bulgaria and 1.0 for Iceland (total 1.9), with a 74% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 0–0 at 16.9% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Bulgaria have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Iceland.

Season Stats

Bulgaria
3W 4D 5L
Iceland
4W 3D 5L
Averages per game
0.7
Goals
1.6
1.2
Conceded
1.6
3.8
Shots OT
4.4
3.3
Corners
4.6
50%
Poss.
48%
Percentages
58%
O 1.5
92%
42%
O 2.5
67%
33%
BTTS
58%
50%
Clean Sht
42%
ℹ Based on the last 12 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
17%
O 3.5
50%
BTTS
Bulgaria
1W 3D 2L · at home
Iceland
2W 1D 3L · away
0.7
gls/g
1.3
0.8
Conceded
1.5
17%
Win %
33%
67%
Win or Draw
50%
50%
O 1.5
83%
33%
O 2.5
67%
0%
O 3.5
33%
50%
BTTS
50%
50%
Clean Sht
50%
33%
Failed to Score
17%
last 6
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Bulgaria Iceland →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 14.8% 14.3% 7.0% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1%
1 13.9% 13.5% 6.5% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1%
2 6.5% 6.4% 3.1% 1.0% 0.2% —
3 2.1% 2.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% —
4 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% — —
5 0.1% 0.1% — — — —

Recent form

Bulgaria Bulgaria
W Luxembourg 0–2
L Iceland 3–0
D Estonia 0–0
L Luxembourg 1–2
L Rep. Of Ireland 2–1
Home clean sheet (120 days) 33%
Iceland Iceland
D Estonia 0–0
W Bulgaria 3–0
W Luxembourg 0–3
D Estonia 1–1
L Kosovo 1–3
Away clean sheet (120 days) 45%

Playing profile

Bulgaria Bulgaria
Attack
34
Defence
59
Form
29
Iceland Iceland
Attack
38
Defence
72
Form
59
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

0
Bulgaria
0
Draw
1
Iceland
3 Oct 2026 UEFA Nations League 0–3

League C - Group D

# Team G Pts
1 Iceland Iceland 4 8
2 Estonia Estonia 4 6
3 Bulgaria Bulgaria 4 4
4 Luxembourg Luxembourg 4 3

What's at stake · League C - Group D

Top 2 advance to the next round

Bulgaria Iceland
Current #3 #1
→ Bulgaria #2 #1
→ Draw #3 #1
→ Iceland #3 #1

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Bulgaria vs Iceland?
The model gives Bulgaria a 31% win probability, 35% for a draw, and 32% for an Iceland win.
How many goals are expected in Bulgaria vs Iceland?
Expected goals: Bulgaria 0.9, Iceland 1.0 (total 1.9). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 74%.
What is the most likely score in Bulgaria vs Iceland?
0–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 16.9%.