Cardiff 5–1 Watford — pre-match prediction — Championship — October 13, 2026

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Championship · Regular Season - 10 October 13, 2026 20:45 Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff

Cardiff

#16 · 14 pts

5 – 1

Final score

Watford

#21 · 11 pts

✓Model correct — prediction Cardiff

Jack Moylan 11' (pen.)

Jack Moylan (ast. C. Ashford) 35'

Matthew Pollock 41' (og)

Ollie·Tanner (ast. Perry Tian Hee Ng) 45'+5

Callum Robinson (ast. David Turnbull) 85'

87' (ast. Iker Bravo) Hector Kyprianou

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Cardiff a 53% win probability (draw 25%, Watford 21%). The final result was Cardiff 5–1 Watford.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

3.75

Actual xG

1.52

Saves

58%

Possession

42%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

Martin Payero

⚽Jack Moylan (pen.)

11'

↕ Dylan Lawlor / William Fish

29'

⚽Jack Moylan · ast. C. Ashford

35'

⚽Matthew Pollock (og)

41'

⚽Ollie·Tanner · ast. Perry Tian Hee Ng

45'+5

56'

Mamadou Doumbia / Myron Boadu ↕

56'

Marc Bola / Jordan Zemura ↕

56'

Amin Nabizada / Stephy Mavididi ↕

⚽Christopher Willock (missed pen.)

65'

67'

Iker Bravo / Martin Payero ↕

↕ Jack Moylan / David Turnbull

69'

↕ Christopher Willock / Calum Scanlon

69'

Krépin Diatta / Othmane Maamma ↕

73'

Edo Kayembe

↕ Ollie·Tanner / Callum Robinson

82'

↕ Joel Bagan / Isaak Davies

82'

⚽Callum Robinson · ast. David Turnbull

85'

86'

Amin Nabizada

Perry Tian Hee Ng

86'

87'

ast. Iker Bravo · Hector Kyprianou⚽

90'+5

Hector Kyprianou

Pre-match prediction

53.21%

Cardiff ←

25.69%

21.09%

Watford

✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Cardiff) 53.21% (medium confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Cardiff

1.98

3.75

+1.77

Watford

0.72

1.52

+0.81

Cardiff dominated by xG (3.75 vs 1.52). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Middlesbrough	12	25
2	Swansea	12	23
3	West Ham	12	22
4	Wolves	12	21
5	West Brom	12	21
6	Southampton	12	20
7	Birmingham	12	20
8	QPR	12	20
9	Stoke City	12	20
10	Blackburn	12	18
11	Portsmouth	12	18
12	Sheffield Utd	12	16
13	Millwall	12	15
14	Bristol City	12	15
15	Lincoln	12	15
16	Cardiff	12	14
17	Wrexham	12	14
18	Bolton	12	14
19	Charlton	12	14
20	Norwich	12	12
21	Watford	12	11
22	Burnley	12	8
23	Derby	12	7
24	Preston	12	5

Lineups

Cardiff 4-2-3-1

N. Trott G 6.65

J. Bagan 82' D 6.87

G. Osho D 7.23

D. Lawlor 29' D 7.10

P. Ng 1 👟 D 7.06

Cian Ashford 1 👟 M 7.48

A. Robertson M 7.20

C. Willock 69' M 6.35

J. Colwill M 6.67

O. Tanner 1 ⚽ 82' M 8.20

J. Moylan 2 ⚽ 69' F 8.06

Bench

C. Robinson 1 ⚽ 8' F 7.39

C. Scanlon 21' D 6.25

D. Turnbull 1 👟 21' M 6.77

H. Tyrer G 0.00

I. Davies 8' F 6.50

P. Moreno M 0.00

R. Kpakio D 0.00

W. Fish 61' D 6.99

Watford 4-2-3-1

F. Ravaglia G 6.62

J. Zemura 56' D 5.78

K. Keben D 5.63

M. Pollock 1 ⚽ D 4.86

O. Traoré D 5.76

H. Kyprianou 1 ⚽ M 7.33

E. Kayembe M 6.14

S. Mavididi 56' M 6.08

M. Payero 67' M 5.56

O. Maamma 69' M 6.03

M. Boadu 56' F 6.46

Bench

Amin Nabizada 34' F 6.18

Branimir Mlačić D 0.00

D. Bachmann G 0.00

Iker Bravo 1 👟 23' F 6.70

K. Diatta 21' M 5.93

L. Kjerrumgaard F 0.00

M. Bola 34' D 5.65

M. Doumbia 34' F 6.19

S. Coulibaly D 0.00

Best on the pitch

O. Tanner

M · Cardiff

8.20

1 ⚽

5 shots · 29 pass

J. Moylan

F · Cardiff

8.06

2 ⚽

8 shots · 14 pass

Cian Ashford

M · Cardiff

7.48

1 👟

1 shots · 22 pass

C. Robinson

F · Cardiff

7.39

1 ⚽

1 shots · 5 pass

H. Kyprianou

M · Watford

7.33

1 ⚽

1 shots · 37 pass

G. Osho

D · Cardiff

7.23

1 shots · 72 pass

Cardiff — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
N. Trott	G	90	6.65	—	—	0	56	46%	0	—	—
J. Bagan	D	82	6.87	—	—	1	33	27%	1	—	—
G. Osho	D	90	7.23	—	—	1	72	64%	0	—	—
D. Lawlor	D	29	7.10	—	—	1	24	24%	0	—	—
P. Ng	D	90	7.06	—	1	1	46	39%	3	1	—
Cian Ashford	M	90	7.48	—	1	1	22	18%	1	—	—
A. Robertson	M	90	7.20	—	—	1	78	72%	0	—	—
C. Willock	M	69	6.35	—	—	1	22	21%	0	—	—
J. Colwill	M	90	6.67	—	—	0	34	32%	1	—	—
O. Tanner	M	82	8.20	1	—	5	29	26%	1	—	—
J. Moylan	F	69	8.06	2	—	8	14	8%	0	—	—
C. Robinson	F	8	7.39	1	—	1	5	4%	0	—	—
C. Scanlon	D	21	6.25	—	—	0	6	4%	0	—	—
D. Turnbull	M	21	6.77	—	1	1	15	13%	1	—	—
I. Davies	F	8	6.50	—	—	0	1	1%	0	—	—
W. Fish	D	61	6.99	—	—	0	37	31%	1	—	—

Watford — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
F. Ravaglia	G	90	6.62	—	—	0	33	27%	0	—	—
J. Zemura	D	56	5.78	—	—	2	13	8%	1	—	—
K. Keben	D	90	5.63	—	—	0	42	35%	3	—	—
M. Pollock	D	90	4.86	1	—	0	39	34%	1	—	—
O. Traoré	D	90	5.76	—	—	0	38	29%	4	—	—
H. Kyprianou	M	90	7.33	1	—	1	37	29%	3	1	—
E. Kayembe	M	90	6.14	—	—	2	30	25%	3	1	—
S. Mavididi	M	56	6.08	—	—	1	15	12%	0	—	—
M. Payero	M	67	5.56	—	—	2	24	18%	0	1	—
O. Maamma	M	69	6.03	—	—	2	19	12%	2	—	—
M. Boadu	F	56	6.46	—	—	1	15	12%	0	—	—
Amin Nabizada	F	34	6.18	—	—	0	13	9%	2	1	—
Iker Bravo	F	23	6.70	—	1	1	5	4%	0	—	—
K. Diatta	M	21	5.93	—	—	0	10	8%	1	—	—
M. Bola	D	34	5.65	—	—	0	18	14%	0	—	—
M. Doumbia	F	34	6.19	—	—	2	7	6%	0	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Cardiff vs Watford?

The final score was Cardiff 5–1 Watford.

What did the model predict before Cardiff vs Watford?

The model assigned 53% probability to a Cardiff win, 25% to a draw, and 21% to an Watford win.