MLS
· Regular Season - 15
May 24, 2026 02:30
✓Model correct — prediction Chicago Fire
R. Lod
(ast. M. Haile-Selassie)
22'
A. Gutman
(ast. P. Zinckernagel)
65'
34'
(ast. A. Coello)
J. Sargent
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Chicago Fire a 68% win probability (draw 16%, Toronto FC 15%). The final result was Chicago Fire 2–1 Toronto FC.
Match statistics
10
Total shots
10
6
Shots on target
4
1.77
Actual xG
1.26
3
Saves
4
53%
Possession
47%
3
Corners
3
17
Tackles
18
4
🟨 Yellow cards
4
Match Events
14'
M. Henry
⚽R. Lod
· ast. M. Haile-Selassie
22'
34'
ast. A. Coello ·
J. Sargent⚽
H. Cuypers
40'
46'
Z. Monlouis
/
N. Gomis
A. Gutman
60'
M. Pineda
/ D. D'Avilla
61'
61'
E. Aristizabal
/
J. Sargent
M. Mbokazi
/ J. Waterman
62'
⚽A. Gutman
· ast. P. Zinckernagel
65'
M. Haile-Selassie
/ P. Dithejane
74'
74'
T. Corbeanu
/
D. Etienne
79'
W. Zimmerman
85'
J. Vilsaint
/
M. Henry
86'
R. Edwards
/
J. Gilman
A. Saletros
87'
90'+1
T. Corbeanu
90'+1
J. Osorio
C. Brady
90'+1
P. Zinckernagel
/ C. Mueller
90'+3
Pre-match prediction
68.34%
Chicago ←
16.47%
X
15.19%
Toronto
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Chicago Fire)
68.34%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.84
1.77
-1.07
0.97
1.26
+0.29
Chicago Fire dominated by xG (1.77 vs 1.26).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Chris Brady
G
Chris Brady
G
15
Andrew Gutman
1 ⚽
D
Andrew Gutman
1 ⚽
D
4
Mbekezeli Mbokazi
62'
D
Mbekezeli Mbokazi
62'
D
3
Jack Elliott
D
Jack Elliott
D
24
J. Dean
D
J. Dean
D
7
Maren Haile-Selassie
1 👟
74'
M
Maren Haile-Selassie
1 👟
74'
M
22
Mauricio Pineda
61'
M
Mauricio Pineda
61'
M
6
Anton Salétros
M
Anton Salétros
M
11
P. Zinckernagel
1 👟
M
P. Zinckernagel
1 👟
M
9
H. Cuypers
F
H. Cuypers
F
17
Robin Lod
1 ⚽
F
Robin Lod
1 ⚽
F
Bench
8
Chris Mueller
2'
F
Chris Mueller
2'
F
42
Dje Tah D'Avilla
34'
M
Dje Tah D'Avilla
34'
M
27
Dylan Borso
F
Dylan Borso
F
20
Jason Shokalook
F
Jason Shokalook
F
16
Joel Waterman
33'
D
Joel Waterman
33'
D
44
Josh Cohen
G
Josh Cohen
G
12
Puso Dithejane
21'
F
Puso Dithejane
21'
F
35
Sergio Oregel
M
Sergio Oregel
M
14
Viktor Radojević
D
Viktor Radojević
D
1
Luka Gavran
G
Luka Gavran
G
19
Kobe Franklin
D
Kobe Franklin
D
15
Nickseon Gomis
45'
D
Nickseon Gomis
45'
D
25
Walker Zimmerman
D
Walker Zimmerman
D
38
Jackson Gilman
86'
D
Jackson Gilman
86'
D
11
Derrick Etienne
74'
M
Derrick Etienne
74'
M
21
Jonathan Osorio
M
Jonathan Osorio
M
14
Alonso Coello
1 👟
M
Alonso Coello
1 👟
M
78
Malik Henry
85'
M
Malik Henry
85'
M
9
Josh Sargent
1 ⚽
61'
F
Josh Sargent
1 ⚽
61'
F
20
Dániel Sallói
F
Dániel Sallói
F
Bench
77
Adisa De Rosario
G
Adisa De Rosario
G
17
Emilio Aristizábal
34'
F
Emilio Aristizábal
34'
F
99
Jules-Anthony Vilsaint
10'
F
Jules-Anthony Vilsaint
10'
F
44
R. Edwards
9'
D
R. Edwards
9'
D
98
Stefan Kapor
D
Stefan Kapor
D
7
Theo Corbeanu
21'
F
Theo Corbeanu
21'
F
23
William Yarbrough
G
William Yarbrough
G
12
Zane Monlouis
50'
D
Zane Monlouis
50'
D
Best on the pitch
Alonso Coello
M · Toronto
8.30
1 👟
· 52 pass
Robin Lod
F · Chicago
8.00
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 16 pass
Josh Sargent
F · Toronto
7.90
1 ⚽
4 shots
· 16 pass
P. Zinckernagel
M · Chicago
7.50
1 👟
3 shots
· 31 pass
Andrew Gutman
D · Chicago
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 39 pass
Walker Zimmerman
D · Toronto
7.30
· 77 pass
Chicago Fire — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Brady | G | 95 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 44 | 37% | — | 1 | — |
| Andrew Gutman | D | 95 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 39 | 27% | — | 1 | — |
| Mbekezeli Mbokazi | D | 62 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 62 | 58% | 3 | — | — |
| Jack Elliott | D | 95 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 99 | 86% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Dean | D | 95 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 38 | 31% | 1 | — | — |
| Maren Haile-Selassie | M | 74 | 6.70 | — | 1 | 2 | 16 | 15% | — | — | — |
| Mauricio Pineda | M | 61 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 34 | 32% | 2 | — | — |
| Anton Salétros | M | 95 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 63 | 55% | 2 | 1 | — |
| P. Zinckernagel | M | 93 | 7.50 | — | 1 | 3 | 31 | 26% | 2 | — | — |
| H. Cuypers | F | 95 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 11% | 3 | 1 | — |
| Robin Lod | F | 95 | 8.00 | 1 | — | 1 | 16 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
| Chris Mueller | F | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dje Tah D'Avilla | M | 34 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 19 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| Joel Waterman | D | 33 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 24 | 20% | 1 | — | — |
| Puso Dithejane | F | 21 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
Toronto FC — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Gavran | G | 95 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 26 | 17% | — | — | — |
| Kobe Franklin | D | 95 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 28 | 26% | 3 | — | — |
| Nickseon Gomis | D | 45 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 31 | 29% | 3 | — | — |
| Walker Zimmerman | D | 95 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 77 | 72% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Jackson Gilman | D | 86 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 32 | 30% | 1 | — | — |
| Derrick Etienne | M | 74 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 15 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Osorio | M | 95 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 53 | 46% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Alonso Coello | M | 95 | 8.30 | — | 1 | — | 52 | 44% | 5 | — | — |
| Malik Henry | M | 85 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 14 | 11% | — | 1 | — |
| Josh Sargent | F | 61 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 4 | 16 | 10% | 2 | — | — |
| Dániel Sallói | F | 95 | 6.30 | — | — | 3 | 19 | 16% | — | — | — |
| Emilio Aristizábal | F | 34 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 5 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Jules-Anthony Vilsaint | F | 10 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| R. Edwards | D | 9 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 5 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Theo Corbeanu | F | 21 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 8 | 8% | — | 1 | — |
| Zane Monlouis | D | 50 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 46 | 41% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Chicago Fire vs Toronto FC?
The final score was Chicago Fire 2–1 Toronto FC.
What did the model predict before Chicago Fire vs Toronto FC?
The model assigned 68% probability to a Chicago Fire win, 16% to a draw, and 15% to an Toronto FC win.