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MLS · Regular Season - 15 May 24, 2026 02:30
Chicago Fire
#4 · 55 pts
2 – 1
Final score
Toronto FC
#12 · 39 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Chicago Fire
R. Lod (ast. M. Haile-Selassie) 22'
A. Gutman (ast. P. Zinckernagel) 65'
34' (ast. A. Coello) J. Sargent
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Chicago Fire a 68% win probability (draw 16%, Toronto FC 15%). The final result was Chicago Fire 2–1 Toronto FC. In 1 previous meetings, Chicago Fire have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Toronto FC.

Match statistics
10
Total shots
10
6
Shots on target
4
1.77
Actual xG
1.26
3
Saves
4
53%
Possession
47%
3
Corners
3
17
Tackles
18
4
🟨 Yellow cards
4
Match Events
14'
M. Henry
⚽R. Lod · ast. M. Haile-Selassie
22'
34'
ast. A. Coello · J. Sargent⚽
H. Cuypers
40'
46'
Z. Monlouis / N. Gomis ↕
A. Gutman
60'
↕ M. Pineda / D. D'Avilla
61'
61'
E. Aristizabal / J. Sargent ↕
↕ M. Mbokazi / J. Waterman
62'
⚽A. Gutman · ast. P. Zinckernagel
65'
↕ M. Haile-Selassie / P. Dithejane
74'
74'
T. Corbeanu / D. Etienne ↕
79'
W. Zimmerman
85'
J. Vilsaint / M. Henry ↕
86'
R. Edwards / J. Gilman ↕
A. Saletros
87'
90'+1
T. Corbeanu
90'+1
J. Osorio
C. Brady
90'+1
↕ P. Zinckernagel / C. Mueller
90'+3
Pre-match prediction
68.34%
Chicago ←
16.47%
X
15.19%
Toronto
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Chicago Fire) 68.34% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Chicago
2.84
1.77
-1.07
Toronto
0.97
1.26
+0.29
Chicago Fire dominated by xG (1.77 vs 1.26). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Nashville SC Nashville SC 33 74
2 Inter Miami Inter Miami 33 59
3 New England Revolution New England Revolution 33 58
4 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 33 55
5 Charlotte Charlotte 33 53
6 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 33 47
7 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 33 46
8 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew 33 44
9 Orlando City SC Orlando City SC 33 43
10 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 33 39
11 New York City FC New York City FC 33 39
12 Toronto FC Toronto FC 33 39
13 Atlanta United FC Atlanta United FC 33 33
14 DC United DC United 33 33
15 CF Montreal CF Montreal 33 26
Lineups
Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 4-4-2
1 C. Brady C. Brady G 6.90
15 A. Gutman A. Gutman 1 ⚽ D 7.30
4 M. Mbokazi M. Mbokazi 62' D 6.90
3 J. Elliott J. Elliott D 6.90
24 J. Dean J. Dean D 6.60
7 M. Haile-Selassie M. Haile-Selassie 1 👟 74' M 6.70
22 M. Pineda M. Pineda 61' M 6.00
6 A. Salétros A. Salétros M 6.60
11 P. Zinckernagel P. Zinckernagel 1 👟 M 7.50
9 H. Cuypers H. Cuypers F 6.20
17 R. Lod R. Lod 1 ⚽ F 8.00
Bench
8 Chris Mueller Chris Mueller 2' F
27 Dylan Borso Dylan Borso F
20 Jason Shokalook Jason Shokalook F
44 J. Cohen J. Cohen G
16 J. Waterman J. Waterman 33' D 6.90
12 P. Dithejane P. Dithejane 21' F 6.90
35 S. Oregel S. Oregel M
42 T. D'Avilla T. D'Avilla 34' M 6.90
14 V. Radojević V. Radojević D
Toronto FC Toronto FC 4-4-2
1 L. Gavran L. Gavran G 6.70
19 K. Franklin K. Franklin D 6.90
15 N. Gomis N. Gomis 45' D 6.90
25 W. Zimmerman W. Zimmerman D 7.30
38 J. Gilman J. Gilman 86' D 6.20
11 D. Etienne D. Etienne 74' M 6.30
21 J. Osorio J. Osorio M 6.50
14 Alonso Coello Alonso Coello 1 👟 M 8.30
78 Malik Henry Malik Henry 85' M 6.50
9 J. Sargent J. Sargent 1 ⚽ 61' F 7.90
20 D. Sallói D. Sallói F 6.30
Bench
77 Adisa De Rosario Adisa De Rosario G
17 Emilio Aristizábal Chavarriaga Emilio Aristizábal Chavarriaga 34' F 6.50
99 J. Vilsaint J. Vilsaint 10' F 6.30
44 R. Edwards R. Edwards 9' D 6.60
98 Stefan Kapor Stefan Kapor D
7 T. Corbeanu T. Corbeanu 21' F 6.30
23 W. Yarbrough W. Yarbrough G
12 Z. Monlouis Z. Monlouis 50' D 6.50
Best on the pitch
Alonso Coello
Alonso Coello
M · Toronto
8.30
1 👟
· 52 pass
R. Lod
R. Lod
F · Chicago
8.00
1 ⚽
1 shots · 16 pass
J. Sargent
J. Sargent
F · Toronto
7.90
1 ⚽
4 shots · 16 pass
P. Zinckernagel
P. Zinckernagel
M · Chicago
7.50
1 👟
3 shots · 31 pass
A. Gutman
A. Gutman
D · Chicago
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots · 39 pass
W. Zimmerman
W. Zimmerman
D · Toronto
7.30
· 77 pass
Chicago Fire Chicago Fire — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
C. Brady G 95 6.90 — — — 44 37% — 1 —
A. Gutman D 95 7.30 1 — 1 39 27% — 1 —
M. Mbokazi D 62 6.90 — — — 62 58% 3 — —
J. Elliott D 95 6.90 — — — 99 86% 1 — —
J. Dean D 95 6.60 — — — 38 31% 1 — —
M. Haile-Selassie M 74 6.70 — 1 2 16 15% — — —
M. Pineda M 61 6.00 — — — 34 32% 2 — —
A. Salétros M 95 6.60 — — 1 63 55% 2 1 —
P. Zinckernagel M 93 7.50 — 1 3 31 26% 2 — —
H. Cuypers F 95 6.20 — — 1 15 11% 3 1 —
R. Lod F 95 8.00 1 — 1 16 10% 1 — —
Chris Mueller F 2 — — — — — — — — —
J. Waterman D 33 6.90 — — — 24 20% 1 — —
P. Dithejane F 21 6.90 — — — 3 3% — — —
T. D'Avilla M 34 6.90 — — 1 19 19% 1 — —
Toronto FC Toronto FC — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
L. Gavran G 95 6.70 — — 1 26 17% — — —
K. Franklin D 95 6.90 — — — 28 26% 3 — —
N. Gomis D 45 6.90 — — — 31 29% 3 — —
W. Zimmerman D 95 7.30 — — — 77 72% 2 1 —
J. Gilman D 86 6.20 — — — 32 30% 1 — —
D. Etienne M 74 6.30 — — 2 15 13% — — —
J. Osorio M 95 6.50 — — — 53 46% 1 1 —
Alonso Coello M 95 8.30 — 1 — 52 44% 5 — —
Malik Henry M 85 6.50 — — — 14 11% — 1 —
J. Sargent F 61 7.90 1 — 4 16 10% 2 — —
D. Sallói F 95 6.30 — — 3 19 16% — — —
Emilio Aristizábal Chavarriaga F 34 6.50 — — — 5 4% — — —
J. Vilsaint F 10 6.30 — — — 1 1% — — —
R. Edwards D 9 6.60 — — — 5 5% — — —
T. Corbeanu F 21 6.30 — — — 8 8% — 1 —
Z. Monlouis D 50 6.50 — — — 46 41% 1 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Chicago Fire vs Toronto FC?
The final score was Chicago Fire 2–1 Toronto FC.
What did the model predict before Chicago Fire vs Toronto FC?
The model assigned 68% probability to a Chicago Fire win, 16% to a draw, and 15% to an Toronto FC win.