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MLS · Regular Season - 15 May 24, 2026 02:30
Chicago Fire
#4 · 39 pts
2 – 1
Final score
Toronto FC
#10 · 29 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Chicago Fire
R. Lod (ast. M. Haile-Selassie) 22'
A. Gutman (ast. P. Zinckernagel) 65'
34' (ast. A. Coello) J. Sargent
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Chicago Fire a 68% win probability (draw 16%, Toronto FC 15%). The final result was Chicago Fire 2–1 Toronto FC. In 1 previous meetings, Chicago Fire have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Toronto FC.

Match statistics
10
Total shots
10
6
Shots on target
4
1.77
Actual xG
1.26
3
Saves
4
53%
Possession
47%
3
Corners
3
17
Tackles
18
4
🟨 Yellow cards
4
Match Events
14'
M. Henry
⚽R. Lod · ast. M. Haile-Selassie
22'
34'
ast. A. Coello · J. Sargent⚽
H. Cuypers
40'
46'
Z. Monlouis / N. Gomis ↕
A. Gutman
60'
↕ M. Pineda / D. D'Avilla
61'
61'
E. Aristizabal / J. Sargent ↕
↕ M. Mbokazi / J. Waterman
62'
⚽A. Gutman · ast. P. Zinckernagel
65'
↕ M. Haile-Selassie / P. Dithejane
74'
74'
T. Corbeanu / D. Etienne ↕
79'
W. Zimmerman
85'
J. Vilsaint / M. Henry ↕
86'
R. Edwards / J. Gilman ↕
A. Saletros
87'
90'+1
T. Corbeanu
90'+1
J. Osorio
C. Brady
90'+1
↕ P. Zinckernagel / C. Mueller
90'+3
Pre-match prediction
68.34%
Chicago ←
16.47%
X
15.19%
Toronto
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Chicago Fire) 68.34% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Chicago
2.84
1.77
-1.07
Toronto
0.97
1.26
+0.29
Chicago Fire dominated by xG (1.77 vs 1.26). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Nashville SC Nashville SC 24 53
2 Inter Miami Inter Miami 24 44
3 New England Revolution New England Revolution 24 40
4 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 23 39
5 Charlotte Charlotte 24 39
6 Orlando City SC Orlando City SC 24 31
7 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 23 31
8 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 24 30
9 New York City FC New York City FC 24 29
10 Toronto FC Toronto FC 24 29
11 DC United DC United 23 28
12 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 24 27
13 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew 24 23
14 Atlanta United FC Atlanta United FC 24 22
15 CF Montreal CF Montreal 24 21
Lineups
Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 4-4-2
1 C. Brady C. Brady G 6.90
15 A. Gutman A. Gutman 1 ⚽ D 7.30
4 Mbekezeli Mbokazi Mbekezeli Mbokazi 62' D 6.90
3 J. Elliott J. Elliott D 6.90
24 J. Dean J. Dean D 6.60
7 M. Haile-Selassie M. Haile-Selassie 1 👟 74' M 6.70
22 M. Pineda M. Pineda 61' M 6.00
6 A. Salétros A. Salétros M 6.60
11 P. Zinckernagel P. Zinckernagel 1 👟 M 7.50
9 H. Cuypers H. Cuypers F 6.20
17 R. Lod R. Lod 1 ⚽ F 8.00
Bench
8 Chris Mueller Chris Mueller 2' F
27 Dylan Borso Dylan Borso F
20 Jason Shokalook Jason Shokalook F
44 J. Cohen J. Cohen G
16 J. Waterman J. Waterman 33' D 6.90
12 P. Dithejane P. Dithejane 21' F 6.90
35 S. Oregel S. Oregel M
42 T. D'Avilla T. D'Avilla 34' M 6.90
14 V. Radojević V. Radojević D
Toronto FC Toronto FC 4-4-2
1 L. Gavran L. Gavran G 6.70
19 K. Franklin K. Franklin D 6.90
15 N. Gomis N. Gomis 45' D 6.90
25 W. Zimmerman W. Zimmerman D 7.30
38 J. Gilman J. Gilman 86' D 6.20
11 D. Etienne D. Etienne 74' M 6.30
21 J. Osorio J. Osorio M 6.50
14 Alonso Coello Alonso Coello 1 👟 M 8.30
78 Malik Henry Malik Henry 85' M 6.50
9 J. Sargent J. Sargent 1 ⚽ 61' F 7.90
20 D. Sallói D. Sallói F 6.30
Bench
77 Adisa De Rosario Adisa De Rosario G
17 Emilio Aristizábal Chavarriaga Emilio Aristizábal Chavarriaga 34' F 6.50
99 Jules-Anthony Vilsaint Jules-Anthony Vilsaint 10' F 6.30
44 R. Edwards R. Edwards 9' D 6.60
98 Stefan Kapor Stefan Kapor D
7 T. Corbeanu T. Corbeanu 21' F 6.30
23 W. Yarbrough W. Yarbrough G
12 Z. Monlouis Z. Monlouis 50' D 6.50
Best on the pitch
Alonso Coello
Alonso Coello
M · Toronto
8.30
1 👟
· 52 pass
R. Lod
R. Lod
F · Chicago
8.00
1 ⚽
1 shots · 16 pass
J. Sargent
J. Sargent
F · Toronto
7.90
1 ⚽
4 shots · 16 pass
P. Zinckernagel
P. Zinckernagel
M · Chicago
7.50
1 👟
3 shots · 31 pass
A. Gutman
A. Gutman
D · Chicago
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots · 39 pass
W. Zimmerman
W. Zimmerman
D · Toronto
7.30
· 77 pass
Chicago Fire Chicago Fire — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
C. Brady G 95 6.90 — — — 44 37% — 1 —
A. Gutman D 95 7.30 1 — 1 39 27% — 1 —
Mbekezeli Mbokazi D 62 6.90 — — — 62 58% 3 — —
J. Elliott D 95 6.90 — — — 99 86% 1 — —
J. Dean D 95 6.60 — — — 38 31% 1 — —
M. Haile-Selassie M 74 6.70 — 1 2 16 15% — — —
M. Pineda M 61 6.00 — — — 34 32% 2 — —
A. Salétros M 95 6.60 — — 1 63 55% 2 1 —
P. Zinckernagel M 93 7.50 — 1 3 31 26% 2 — —
H. Cuypers F 95 6.20 — — 1 15 11% 3 1 —
R. Lod F 95 8.00 1 — 1 16 10% 1 — —
Chris Mueller F 2 — — — — — — — — —
J. Waterman D 33 6.90 — — — 24 20% 1 — —
P. Dithejane F 21 6.90 — — — 3 3% — — —
T. D'Avilla M 34 6.90 — — 1 19 19% 1 — —
Toronto FC Toronto FC — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
L. Gavran G 95 6.70 — — 1 26 17% — — —
K. Franklin D 95 6.90 — — — 28 26% 3 — —
N. Gomis D 45 6.90 — — — 31 29% 3 — —
W. Zimmerman D 95 7.30 — — — 77 72% 2 1 —
J. Gilman D 86 6.20 — — — 32 30% 1 — —
D. Etienne M 74 6.30 — — 2 15 13% — — —
J. Osorio M 95 6.50 — — — 53 46% 1 1 —
Alonso Coello M 95 8.30 — 1 — 52 44% 5 — —
Malik Henry M 85 6.50 — — — 14 11% — 1 —
J. Sargent F 61 7.90 1 — 4 16 10% 2 — —
D. Sallói F 95 6.30 — — 3 19 16% — — —
Emilio Aristizábal Chavarriaga F 34 6.50 — — — 5 4% — — —
Jules-Anthony Vilsaint F 10 6.30 — — — 1 1% — — —
R. Edwards D 9 6.60 — — — 5 5% — — —
T. Corbeanu F 21 6.30 — — — 8 8% — 1 —
Z. Monlouis D 50 6.50 — — — 46 41% 1 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Chicago Fire vs Toronto FC?
The final score was Chicago Fire 2–1 Toronto FC.
What did the model predict before Chicago Fire vs Toronto FC?
The model assigned 68% probability to a Chicago Fire win, 16% to a draw, and 15% to an Toronto FC win.