Liga MX
· Clausura - 15
April 19, 2026 01:00
✗Model wrong — prediction Cruz Azul, result Pareggio
G. Fernandez
17'
(pen.)
25'
M. El Ghezouani
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Cruz Azul a 73% win probability (draw 14%, Club Tijuana 11%). The final result was Cruz Azul 1–1 Club Tijuana. In 1 previous meetings, Cruz Azul have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Club Tijuana.
Match statistics
14
Total shots
4
6
Shots on target
2
2.37
Actual xG
1.11
1
Saves
5
66%
Possession
34%
4
Corners
1
6
Tackles
14
2
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
⚽G. Fernandez
(pen.)
17'
20'
R. Inzunza
25'
M. El Ghezouani⚽
E. Lira
45'+1
E. Lira
/ J. Paradela
60'
61'
G. Mora
/
M. El Ghezouani
A. Palavecino
/ C. Ebere
71'
A. Montano
/ L. Romero
71'
76'
D. Abreu
/
K. Castaneda
76'
U. Bilbao
/
R. Arciga
O. Campos
/ A. Castro
84'
J. Marquez
/ A. Morales
84'
W. Ditta
90'+2
90'
A. Zapata
Pre-match prediction
73.69%
Cruz
14.97%
X ←
11.34%
Club
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
14.97%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.65
2.37
-0.28
0.71
1.11
+0.4
Cruz Azul dominated by xG (2.37 vs 1.11).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
23
G
29
Carlos Rotondi
D
Carlos Rotondi
D
33
Gonzalo Piovi
D
Gonzalo Piovi
D
4
Willer Ditta
D
Willer Ditta
D
3
Omar Campos
84'
D
Omar Campos
84'
D
19
Carlos Rodríguez
M
Carlos Rodríguez
M
6
É. Lira
60'
M
É. Lira
60'
M
10
Andres Montaño
71'
M
Andres Montaño
71'
M
8
Agustín Palavecino
71'
M
Agustín Palavecino
71'
M
16
Jeremy Márquez
84'
M
Jeremy Márquez
84'
M
21
Gabriel Fernández
1 ⚽
F
Gabriel Fernández
1 ⚽
F
Bench
20
José Paradela
30'
F
José Paradela
30'
F
18
Luka Romero
19'
F
Luka Romero
19'
F
11
Osinachi Ebere
19'
F
Osinachi Ebere
19'
F
2
G
33
P. N. Ortiz Orozco
D
6
A. Gomez
D
12
D
3
R. Inzunza
D
20
A. Zapata
M
11
M
10
K. Castaneda
76'
M
22
I. Rivero
M
17
R. Arciga
76'
M
9
M. El Ghezouani
1 ⚽
61'
F
Bench
26
A. Perez
M
31
D. Abreu
14'
F
19
G. Mora
29'
M
30
J. Martinez
F
Best on the pitch
Andres Montaño
M · Cruz
7.60
1 shots
· 18 pass
M · Club
7.50
· 17 pass
Carlos Rodríguez
M · Cruz
7.20
· 63 pass
Willer Ditta
D · Cruz
7.00
3 shots
· 91 pass
M. El Ghezouani
F · Club
7.00
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 16 pass
G · Club
7.00
· 41 pass
Cruz Azul — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 26 | 23% | — | — | — | |
| Carlos Rotondi | D | 90 | 5.90 | — | — | 2 | 28 | 17% | — | — | — |
| Gonzalo Piovi | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 102 | 81% | 1 | — | — |
| Willer Ditta | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | 3 | 91 | 87% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Omar Campos | D | 84 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 22 | 16% | — | — | — |
| Carlos Rodríguez | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 63 | 53% | 1 | — | — |
| É. Lira | M | 60 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 44 | 39% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Andres Montaño | M | 71 | 7.60 | — | — | 1 | 18 | 15% | — | — | — |
| Agustín Palavecino | M | 71 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 37 | 25% | 1 | — | — |
| Jeremy Márquez | M | 84 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 27 | 24% | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Fernández | F | 90 | 6.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 16 | 11% | — | — | — |
| José Paradela | F | 30 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 18 | 15% | — | — | — |
| Luka Romero | F | 19 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 8 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Osinachi Ebere | F | 19 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 5 | 1% | — | — | — |
Club Tijuana — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 41 | 20% | — | — | — | |
| P. N. Ortiz Orozco | D | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 20 | 15% | — | — | — |
| A. Gomez | D | 90 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 25 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 24 | 19% | 1 | — | — | |
| R. Inzunza | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 24 | 15% | 3 | 1 | — |
| A. Zapata | M | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 22 | 15% | 2 | 1 | — |
| M | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 17 | 14% | 3 | — | — | |
| K. Castaneda | M | 76 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 23 | 16% | — | — | — |
| I. Rivero | M | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | 3 | 16 | 12% | 2 | — | — |
| R. Arciga | M | 76 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 11 | 5% | — | — | — |
| M. El Ghezouani | F | 61 | 7.00 | 1 | — | 1 | 16 | 10% | — | — | — |
| D. Abreu | F | 14 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 6 | 3% | 2 | — | — |
| G. Mora | M | 29 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 10 | 8% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Cruz Azul vs Club Tijuana?
The final score was Cruz Azul 1–1 Club Tijuana.
What did the model predict before Cruz Azul vs Club Tijuana?
The model assigned 73% probability to a Cruz Azul win, 14% to a draw, and 11% to an Club Tijuana win.