✗Model wrong — prediction Cruz Azul, result CF Pachuca wins
C. Ebere
45'
5'
Kenedy
58'
(ast. O. Idrissi)
Kenedy
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Cruz Azul a 58% win probability (draw 22%, CF Pachuca 19%). The final result was Cruz Azul 1–2 CF Pachuca. In 2 previous meetings, Cruz Azul have won 2 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for CF Pachuca.
Match statistics
17
Total shots
10
5
Shots on target
4
0.98
Actual xG
1.06
2
Saves
4
63%
Possession
37%
8
Corners
4
20
Tackles
20
1
🟨 Yellow cards
1
0
🟥 Red cards
2
Match Events
-5'
Víctor Guzmán
5'
Kenedy⚽
Gonzalo Piovi
23'
J. Rodarte
/ O. Campos
32'
⚽C. Ebere
45'
58'
ast. O. Idrissi ·
Kenedy⚽
L. Romero
/ G. Fernandez
61'
69'
A. Dominguez
/
Kenedy
69'
E. Valencia
/
S. Rondon
69'
S. Rodriguez
/
E. Montiel
76'
L. Quinones
/
O. Idrissi
C. Rodriguez
/ A. Morales
80'
J. Marquez
/ E. Lira
80'
C. Ebere
/ A. Montano
80'
83'
84'
Christian Rivera
87'
P. Pedraza
/
V. Guzman
90'
Pedro Pedraza
90'
Sergio Rodríguez
Pre-match prediction
58.93%
Cruz
22.06%
X
19.01%
CF ←
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (CF Pachuca)
19.01%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.98
0.98
-1.0
1.02
1.06
+0.04
xG dominance was balanced (0.98 – 1.06).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
G
33
G. Piovi
D
G. Piovi
D
17
A. García
D
A. García
D
4
W. Ditta
D
W. Ditta
D
11
C. Ebere
1 ⚽
80'
M
C. Ebere
1 ⚽
80'
M
16
J. Márquez
80'
M
J. Márquez
80'
M
19
C. Rodríguez
80'
M
C. Rodríguez
80'
M
22
J. Rodarte
18
L. Romero
61'
F
L. Romero
61'
F
20
J. Paradela
F
J. Paradela
F
7
N. Ibáñez
F
N. Ibáñez
F
Bench
10
A. Montaño
10'
M
A. Montaño
10'
M
6
É. Lira
10'
M
É. Lira
10'
M
21
G. Fernández
29'
F
G. Fernández
29'
F
3
O. Campos
58'
D
O. Campos
58'
D
25
C. Moreno
G
C. Moreno
G
12
B. García
D
B. García
D
2
D
4
Eduardo Bauermann
D
Eduardo Bauermann
D
14
C. Sánchez
D
C. Sánchez
D
16
C. Rivera
84'
M
C. Rivera
84'
M
8
V. Guzmán
87'
M
V. Guzmán
87'
M
11
O. Idrissi
1 👟
76'
M
O. Idrissi
1 👟
76'
M
28
E. Montiel
69'
M
E. Montiel
69'
M
29
Kenedy
2 ⚽
69'
M
Kenedy
2 ⚽
69'
M
23
S. Rondón
69'
F
S. Rondón
69'
F
Bench
26
Alán Ernesto Bautista Gutiérrez
M
Alán Ernesto Bautista Gutiérrez
M
18
Alexei Domínguez
21'
F
Alexei Domínguez
21'
F
10
E. Valencia
21'
F
E. Valencia
21'
F
7
Luis Quiñones
14'
F
Luis Quiñones
14'
F
5
P. Pedraza
13'
M
P. Pedraza
13'
M
188
S. Rodriguez
S. Rodriguez
Best on the pitch
Kenedy
M · CF
8.60
2 ⚽
3 shots
· 10 pass
C. Ebere
M · Cruz
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 29 pass
L. Romero
F · Cruz
7.70
1 shots
· 19 pass
J. Márquez
M · Cruz
7.30
3 shots
· 46 pass
V. Guzmán
M · CF
7.20
3 shots
· 19 pass
W. Ditta
D · Cruz
7.00
1 shots
· 72 pass
Cruz Azul — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 5.20 | — | — | — | 25 | 17% | — | — | — | |
| G. Piovi | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 53 | 40% | 5 | 1 | — |
| A. García | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 33 | 33% | 1 | — | — |
| W. Ditta | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 72 | 64% | 1 | — | — |
| C. Ebere | M | 80 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 29 | 21% | 4 | — | — |
| J. Márquez | M | 80 | 7.30 | — | — | 3 | 46 | 39% | 3 | — | — |
| C. Rodríguez | M | 80 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 55 | 46% | — | — | — |
| J. Rodarte | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| L. Romero | F | 61 | 7.70 | — | — | 1 | 19 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Paradela | F | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | 3 | 37 | 28% | — | — | — |
| N. Ibáñez | F | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 3 | 17 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Montaño | M | 10 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
| É. Lira | M | 10 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 14 | 12% | 2 | — | — |
| G. Fernández | F | 29 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1% | 1 | — | — |
| O. Campos | D | 58 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 24 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
CF Pachuca — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Moreno | G | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 34 | 15% | — | — | — |
| B. García | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 36 | 30% | 1 | — | — |
| D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 15 | 13% | — | — | — | |
| Eduardo Bauermann | D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| C. Sánchez | D | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 32 | 20% | 4 | — | — |
| C. Rivera | M | 84 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 29 | 27% | 4 | — | 1 |
| V. Guzmán | M | 87 | 7.20 | — | — | 3 | 19 | 16% | 4 | — | 1 |
| O. Idrissi | M | 76 | 6.90 | — | 1 | 1 | 25 | 21% | — | — | — |
| E. Montiel | M | 69 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 14 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| Kenedy | M | 69 | 8.60 | 2 | — | 3 | 10 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
| S. Rondón | F | 69 | 5.90 | — | — | 1 | 9 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Alexei Domínguez | F | 21 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 8 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| E. Valencia | F | 21 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 7 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Luis Quiñones | F | 14 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 6 | 4% | 3 | — | — |
| P. Pedraza | M | 13 | 6.20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Cruz Azul vs CF Pachuca?
The final score was Cruz Azul 1–2 CF Pachuca.
What did the model predict before Cruz Azul vs CF Pachuca?
The model assigned 58% probability to a Cruz Azul win, 22% to a draw, and 19% to an CF Pachuca win.