World Cup
· Group Stage - 1
June 17, 2026 22:00
✓Model correct — prediction England
H. Kane
12'
(pen.)
H. Kane
(ast. D. Rice)
42'
J. Bellingham
(ast. E. Anderson)
47'
M. Rashford
(ast. B. Saka)
85'
36'
(ast. P. Sucic)
M. Baturina
45'+5
(ast. I. Perisic)
P. Musa
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave England a 70% win probability (draw 17%, Croatia 12%). The final result was England 4–2 Croatia.
Match statistics
16
Total shots
8
11
Shots on target
5
2.82
Actual xG
0.53
3
Saves
7
52%
Possession
48%
8
Corners
1
7
Tackles
10
Match Events
⚽H. Kane
(pen.)
12'
36'
ast. P. Sucic ·
M. Baturina⚽
⚽H. Kane
· ast. D. Rice
42'
45'+5
ast. I. Perisic ·
P. Musa⚽
⚽J. Bellingham
· ast. E. Anderson
47'
58'
M. Kovacic
/
L. Modric
66'
M. Pasalic
/
L. Vuskovic
66'
I. Matanovic
/
P. Musa
A. Gordon
/ M. Rashford
72'
N. Madueke
/ B. Saka
72'
D. Rice
/ M. Rogers
72'
78'
N. Vlasic
/
M. Baturina
79'
A. Kramaric
/
M. Pasalic
J. Bellingham
/ D. Spence
80'
⚽M. Rashford
· ast. B. Saka
85'
J. Stones
/ M. Guehi
87'
Pre-match prediction
70.81%
England ←
17.05%
X
12.15%
Croatia
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (England)
70.81%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.54
2.82
+0.28
0.72
0.53
-0.19
England dominated by xG (2.82 vs 0.53).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
1
Jordan Pickford
G
Jordan Pickford
G
3
N. O'Reilly
D
N. O'Reilly
D
5
John Stones
87'
D
John Stones
87'
D
2
Ezri Konsa
D
Ezri Konsa
D
24
Reece James
D
Reece James
D
4
D. Rice
1 👟
72'
M
D. Rice
1 👟
72'
M
8
Elliot Anderson
1 👟
M
Elliot Anderson
1 👟
M
18
Anthony Gordon
72'
M
Anthony Gordon
72'
M
10
Jude Bellingham
1 ⚽
80'
M
Jude Bellingham
1 ⚽
80'
M
20
N. Madueke
72'
M
N. Madueke
72'
M
9
H. Kane
2 ⚽
F
H. Kane
2 ⚽
F
Bench
7
B. Saka
1 👟
22'
F
B. Saka
1 👟
22'
F
15
Dan Burn
D
Dan Burn
D
13
Dean Henderson
G
Dean Henderson
G
25
Djed Spence
14'
D
Djed Spence
14'
D
21
E. Eze
M
E. Eze
M
22
Ivan Toney
F
Ivan Toney
F
23
James Trafford
G
James Trafford
G
14
Jordan Henderson
M
Jordan Henderson
M
26
J. Quansah
D
J. Quansah
D
16
Kobbie Mainoo
M
Kobbie Mainoo
M
6
Marc Guéhi
7'
D
Marc Guéhi
7'
D
17
Morgan Rogers
22'
M
Morgan Rogers
22'
M
11
M. Rashford
1 ⚽
22'
F
M. Rashford
1 ⚽
22'
F
19
Ollie Watkins
F
Ollie Watkins
F
1
Dominik Livaković
G
Dominik Livaković
G
4
Joško Gvardiol
D
Joško Gvardiol
D
22
Luka Vušković
66'
D
Luka Vušković
66'
D
6
Josip Šutalo
D
Josip Šutalo
D
14
Ivan Perišić
1 👟
M
Ivan Perišić
1 👟
M
15
Mario Pašalić
79'
M
Mario Pašalić
79'
M
10
Luka Modrić
58'
M
Luka Modrić
58'
M
2
Josip Stanišić
M
Josip Stanišić
M
16
Martin Baturina
1 ⚽
78'
F
Martin Baturina
1 ⚽
78'
F
17
Petar Sučić
1 👟
F
Petar Sučić
1 👟
F
26
Petar Musa
1 ⚽
66'
F
Petar Musa
1 ⚽
66'
F
Bench
9
A. Kramarić
15'
F
A. Kramarić
15'
F
11
Ante Budimir
F
Ante Budimir
F
5
D. Ćaleta-Car
D
D. Ćaleta-Car
D
23
Dominik Kotarski
G
Dominik Kotarski
G
20
I. Matanović
28'
F
I. Matanović
28'
F
12
Ivor Pandur
G
Ivor Pandur
G
18
Kristijan Jakić
M
Kristijan Jakić
M
21
L. Sučić
M
L. Sučić
M
24
Marco Pašalić
28'
F
Marco Pašalić
28'
F
3
Marin Pongračić
D
Marin Pongračić
D
25
Martin Erlić
D
Martin Erlić
D
8
Mateo Kovačić
36'
M
Mateo Kovačić
36'
M
7
Nikola Moro
M
Nikola Moro
M
13
Nikola Vlašić
16'
M
Nikola Vlašić
16'
M
19
Toni Fruk
M
Toni Fruk
M
Best on the pitch
H. Kane
F · England
8.30
2 ⚽
5 shots
· 20 pass
Martin Baturina
F · Croatia
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 32 pass
N. Madueke
M · England
7.70
· 18 pass
Dominik Livaković
G · Croatia
7.70
· 33 pass
Jude Bellingham
M · England
7.60
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 24 pass
Petar Musa
F · Croatia
7.50
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 8 pass
England — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Pickford | G | 94 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 55 | 43% | — | — | — |
| N. O'Reilly | D | 94 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 43 | 36% | — | — | — |
| John Stones | D | 87 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 65 | 62% | 1 | — | — |
| Ezri Konsa | D | 94 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 71 | 67% | — | — | — |
| Reece James | D | 94 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 43 | 36% | — | — | — |
| D. Rice | M | 72 | 6.90 | — | 1 | 1 | 36 | 32% | — | — | — |
| Elliot Anderson | M | 94 | 7.20 | — | 1 | — | 55 | 47% | 2 | — | — |
| Anthony Gordon | M | 72 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 11 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Jude Bellingham | M | 80 | 7.60 | 1 | — | 3 | 24 | 18% | 3 | — | — |
| N. Madueke | M | 72 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 18 | 17% | — | — | — |
| H. Kane | F | 94 | 8.30 | 2 | — | 5 | 20 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| B. Saka | F | 22 | 7.00 | — | 1 | — | 5 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Djed Spence | D | 14 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 6 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Marc Guéhi | D | 7 | — | — | — | — | 7 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Morgan Rogers | M | 22 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 6 | 4% | — | — | — |
| M. Rashford | F | 22 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 4 | 2% | — | — | — |
Croatia — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominik Livaković | G | 94 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 33 | 22% | 1 | — | — |
| Joško Gvardiol | D | 94 | 5.60 | — | — | — | 46 | 42% | 1 | — | — |
| Luka Vušković | D | 66 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 42 | 37% | — | — | — |
| Josip Šutalo | D | 94 | 5.90 | — | — | 1 | 67 | 61% | — | — | — |
| Ivan Perišić | M | 94 | 6.90 | — | 1 | — | 28 | 24% | 1 | — | — |
| Mario Pašalić | M | 79 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 22 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| Luka Modrić | M | 58 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 27 | 27% | — | — | — |
| Josip Stanišić | M | 94 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 34 | 30% | 2 | — | — |
| Martin Baturina | F | 78 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 32 | 25% | 1 | — | — |
| Petar Sučić | F | 94 | 6.30 | — | 1 | 1 | 40 | 34% | — | — | — |
| Petar Musa | F | 66 | 7.50 | 1 | — | 1 | 8 | 3% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Kramarić | F | 15 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 7 | 7% | — | — | — |
| I. Matanović | F | 28 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| Marco Pašalić | F | 28 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| Mateo Kovačić | M | 36 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 28 | 27% | 1 | — | — |
| Nikola Vlašić | M | 16 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 4 | 2% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of England vs Croatia?
The final score was England 4–2 Croatia.
What did the model predict before England vs Croatia?
The model assigned 70% probability to a England win, 17% to a draw, and 12% to an Croatia win.