World Cup
· Group Stage - 1
June 17, 2026 22:00
✓Model correct — prediction England
H. Kane
12'
(pen.)
H. Kane
(ast. D. Rice)
42'
J. Bellingham
(ast. E. Anderson)
47'
M. Rashford
(ast. B. Saka)
85'
36'
(ast. P. Sucic)
M. Baturina
45'+5
(ast. I. Perisic)
P. Musa
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave England a 70% win probability (draw 17%, Croatia 12%). The final result was England 4–2 Croatia. In 1 previous meetings, England have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Croatia.
Match statistics
16
Total shots
8
11
Shots on target
5
2.82
Actual xG
0.53
3
Saves
7
52%
Possession
48%
8
Corners
1
7
Tackles
10
Match Events
⚽H. Kane
(pen.)
12'
36'
ast. P. Sucic ·
M. Baturina⚽
⚽H. Kane
· ast. D. Rice
42'
45'+5
ast. I. Perisic ·
P. Musa⚽
⚽J. Bellingham
· ast. E. Anderson
47'
58'
M. Kovacic
/
L. Modric
66'
M. Pasalic
/
L. Vuskovic
66'
I. Matanovic
/
P. Musa
A. Gordon
/ M. Rashford
72'
N. Madueke
/ B. Saka
72'
D. Rice
/ M. Rogers
72'
78'
N. Vlasic
/
M. Baturina
79'
A. Kramaric
/
M. Pasalic
J. Bellingham
/ D. Spence
80'
⚽M. Rashford
· ast. B. Saka
85'
J. Stones
/ M. Guehi
87'
Pre-match prediction
70.81%
England ←
17.05%
X
12.15%
Croatia
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (England)
70.81%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.54
2.82
+0.28
0.72
0.53
-0.19
England dominated by xG (2.82 vs 0.53).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
1
J. Pickford
G
J. Pickford
G
3
N. O'Reilly
D
N. O'Reilly
D
5
John Stones
87'
D
John Stones
87'
D
2
E. Konsa
D
E. Konsa
D
24
R. James
D
R. James
D
4
D. Rice
1 👟
72'
M
D. Rice
1 👟
72'
M
8
E. Anderson
1 👟
M
E. Anderson
1 👟
M
18
A. Gordon
72'
M
A. Gordon
72'
M
10
J. Bellingham
1 ⚽
80'
M
J. Bellingham
1 ⚽
80'
M
20
N. Madueke
72'
M
N. Madueke
72'
M
9
H. Kane
2 ⚽
F
H. Kane
2 ⚽
F
Bench
7
B. Saka
1 👟
22'
F
B. Saka
1 👟
22'
F
15
D. Burn
D
D. Burn
D
13
D. Henderson
G
D. Henderson
G
25
D. Spence
14'
D
D. Spence
14'
D
21
E. Eze
M
E. Eze
M
22
I. Toney
F
I. Toney
F
14
J. Henderson
M
J. Henderson
M
26
J. Quansah
D
J. Quansah
D
23
J. Trafford
G
J. Trafford
G
16
K. Mainoo
M
K. Mainoo
M
6
M. Guéhi
7'
D
M. Guéhi
7'
D
11
M. Rashford
1 ⚽
22'
F
M. Rashford
1 ⚽
22'
F
17
M. Rogers
22'
M
M. Rogers
22'
M
19
O. Watkins
F
O. Watkins
F
1
D. Livaković
G
D. Livaković
G
4
J. Gvardiol
D
J. Gvardiol
D
22
L. Vušković
66'
D
L. Vušković
66'
D
6
J. Šutalo
D
J. Šutalo
D
14
I. Perišić
1 👟
M
I. Perišić
1 👟
M
15
Mario Pasalic
79'
M
Mario Pasalic
79'
M
10
L. Modrić
58'
M
L. Modrić
58'
M
2
J. Stanišić
M
J. Stanišić
M
16
M. Baturina
1 ⚽
78'
F
M. Baturina
1 ⚽
78'
F
17
P. Sučić
1 👟
F
P. Sučić
1 👟
F
26
P. Musa
1 ⚽
66'
F
P. Musa
1 ⚽
66'
F
Bench
11
A. Budimir
F
A. Budimir
F
9
A. Kramarić
15'
F
A. Kramarić
15'
F
5
D. Ćaleta-Car
D
D. Ćaleta-Car
D
23
D. Kotarski
G
D. Kotarski
G
20
I. Matanović
28'
F
I. Matanović
28'
F
12
I. Pandur
G
I. Pandur
G
18
K. Jakić
M
K. Jakić
M
21
L. Sučić
M
L. Sučić
M
24
Marco Pasalic
28'
F
Marco Pasalic
28'
F
25
M. Erlić
D
M. Erlić
D
8
M. Kovačić
36'
M
M. Kovačić
36'
M
3
M. Pongračić
D
M. Pongračić
D
7
N. Moro
M
N. Moro
M
13
N. Vlašić
16'
M
N. Vlašić
16'
M
19
T. Fruk
M
T. Fruk
M
Best on the pitch
H. Kane
F · England
8.30
2 ⚽
5 shots
· 20 pass
M. Baturina
F · Croatia
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 32 pass
N. Madueke
M · England
7.70
· 18 pass
D. Livaković
G · Croatia
7.70
· 33 pass
J. Bellingham
M · England
7.60
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 24 pass
P. Musa
F · Croatia
7.50
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 8 pass
England — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Pickford | G | 94 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 55 | 43% | — | — | — |
| N. O'Reilly | D | 94 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 43 | 36% | — | — | — |
| John Stones | D | 87 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 65 | 62% | 1 | — | — |
| E. Konsa | D | 94 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 71 | 67% | — | — | — |
| R. James | D | 94 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 43 | 36% | — | — | — |
| D. Rice | M | 72 | 6.90 | — | 1 | 1 | 36 | 32% | — | — | — |
| E. Anderson | M | 94 | 7.20 | — | 1 | — | 55 | 47% | 2 | — | — |
| A. Gordon | M | 72 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 11 | 9% | — | — | — |
| J. Bellingham | M | 80 | 7.60 | 1 | — | 3 | 24 | 18% | 3 | — | — |
| N. Madueke | M | 72 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 18 | 17% | — | — | — |
| H. Kane | F | 94 | 8.30 | 2 | — | 5 | 20 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| B. Saka | F | 22 | 7.00 | — | 1 | — | 5 | 4% | — | — | — |
| D. Spence | D | 14 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 6 | 5% | — | — | — |
| M. Guéhi | D | 7 | — | — | — | — | 7 | 7% | — | — | — |
| M. Rashford | F | 22 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 4 | 2% | — | — | — |
| M. Rogers | M | 22 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 6 | 4% | — | — | — |
Croatia — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Livaković | G | 94 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 33 | 22% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Gvardiol | D | 94 | 5.60 | — | — | — | 46 | 42% | 1 | — | — |
| L. Vušković | D | 66 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 42 | 37% | — | — | — |
| J. Šutalo | D | 94 | 5.90 | — | — | 1 | 67 | 61% | — | — | — |
| I. Perišić | M | 94 | 6.90 | — | 1 | — | 28 | 24% | 1 | — | — |
| Mario Pasalic | M | 79 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 22 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| L. Modrić | M | 58 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 27 | 27% | — | — | — |
| J. Stanišić | M | 94 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 34 | 30% | 2 | — | — |
| M. Baturina | F | 78 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 32 | 25% | 1 | — | — |
| P. Sučić | F | 94 | 6.30 | — | 1 | 1 | 40 | 34% | — | — | — |
| P. Musa | F | 66 | 7.50 | 1 | — | 1 | 8 | 3% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Kramarić | F | 15 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 7 | 7% | — | — | — |
| I. Matanović | F | 28 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| Marco Pasalic | F | 28 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Kovačić | M | 36 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 28 | 27% | 1 | — | — |
| N. Vlašić | M | 16 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 4 | 2% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of England vs Croatia?
The final score was England 4–2 Croatia.
What did the model predict before England vs Croatia?
The model assigned 70% probability to a England win, 17% to a draw, and 12% to an Croatia win.